College Basketball Best Bets Today:

More conference tournaments get underway today, as we welcome the NEC, Ohio Valley, Summit, and Big South to the party. You know we’ve got those previewed as part of the 31 that we will be writing throughout this week and next. Make sure you bookmark our Conference Tournament Guide page and check back as regular seasons wrap up.

We’ve got 31 games on the slate today with the start of those tournaments, plus continued regular season action. The regular season games come from the SEC, Big Ten, Big East, ACC, and A-10, as we also have continued action in the Sun Belt Tournament.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Le Moyne Dolphins at Central Connecticut Blue Devils (-13.5, 144.5)

7 p.m. ET

First-round action in the Northeast Conference Tournament brings No. 8 seed Le Moyne and No. 1 seed Central Connecticut together. This will be a home game for the Blue Devils and all of their games in the NEC Tournament will be at home, for however long they need to play.

Le Moyne is playing with house money here, as they aren’t expected to win, but they’ve had two of the three best offensive performances of conference play against Central Connecticut. The Dolphins had 1.045 points per possession in the first game that they lost by 23 and 1.052 in the second game that they lost by 9 at CCSU back on Feb. 27.

Central Connecticut had a big outlier offensive performance in the first meeting with 1.388 PPP, which is their highest output of the season against a Division I opponent, so I’m not expecting a repeat of that. I do think Le Moyne, who led the NEC in adjusted offensive efficiency, is capable of keeping pace here as they let it all hang out in likely their final game of the season.

Pick: Le Moyne +13.5

USC Upstate Spartans vs. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (-6, 157.5)

7:30 p.m. ET

The Big South Conference Tournament gets underway tonight in a new venue, as Johnson City, TN welcomes the conference members to town. Gardner-Webb is 2-0 against USC Upstate this season and they’ve done basically whatever they’ve wanted on offense in those two games. The Bulldogs have scored 1.299 and 1.268 points per possession. Those have actually been two of their better offensive performances recently, as they actually come into the conference tourney having lost seven of their last eight.

I think their recent run of bad play has given us a more manageable number here, as the Bulldogs beat the Spartans by 29 at home and then 9 on the road. In the first game, the Bulldogs were 17-of-37 from 3 to produce the blowout, but they also had a 16-7 edge on the offensive glass and a 15-7 edge in turnovers. Interestingly, they were just 12-of-29 at the free throw line, which is absolutely something to monitor here, but they do have two 90% free throw shooters that head coach Jeremy Luther should be able to get the ball to in late-game situations.

In the second game, Gardner-Webb had 40 shot attempts at the rim. They also had 18 more offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs have an enormous edge on the glass in this game and we’ve seen them have some really good shot selection in both games against the Spartans, who lost 14 of 16 games in conference play and have one of the worst interior defenses in the nation.

DraftKings has -5.5 at -118, while the rest of the market is on -6. I’ll grade at -6.

Pick: Gardner-Webb -6

Davidson Wildcats at Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-5.5, 140.5)

9 p.m. ET

I’ll be picking on Davidson again, as Loyola Chicago returns home after getting blown out by Saint Louis. Per Haslametrics’ “Away From Home” metric, Loyola Chicago has the 26th-lowest ranking, as they simply have not played nearly as well in road and neutral settings as they have at home.

They’re at home here and welcome a Davidson team that is just 6-10 in league play and hasn’t beaten a team ranked higher than 199th  by KenPom since the first week of January. They were just humiliated by VCU on the road and went back home before traveling up to Chicago for this one. The Ramblers won the first meeting down in North Carolina 77-69 back on Feb. 18 and had 1.15 PPP to Davidson’s 1.031.

Shot selection was a big deal in the game. Loyola was +12 points on 3s and +6 points on shots at the rim. Davidson takes a lot of mid-range jumpers and that cuts into their ability to play well on offense in my opinion. Because the Wildcats aren’t a good defensive team – they rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the 15-team A-10 – they really need to better optimize their shot selection to have success.

Loyola Chicago is also shooting 36.3% on 3s and I think that’s a big reason why they’ve fared better at home, where they are more comfortable. Coming off of the blowout loss to snap a five-game winning streak, I think they’re very focused here as they honor a couple multi-year seniors in Sheldon Edwards Jr. and Des Watson.

Pick: Loyola Chicago -5.5

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