College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The second Wednesday of the college basketball season is upon us and we have 42 games featuring Division I matchups. There are 13 more D-I teams in action against lower-division schools, as everybody is trying to get into the flow of the season. Tonight’s slate doesn’t have any huge games with blue-blood programs against each other, but we’re continuing to collect data points on everybody.

Some really interesting mid-major and low-major teams are getting a hefty number of points against premier programs like Auburn, Houston, Texas Tech, Arkansas, and Illinois and so are some lesser teams against BYU, St. John’s, and UConn. So, some big names are in action, just without big tests.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Southern Jaguars (-3.5, 148) at East Texas A&M Lions

7:30 p.m. ET

We’re digging deep here, as Southern from the SWAC takes on East Texas A&M from the Southland. You may know East Texas A&M as Texas A&M-Commerce, but they changed the name of the university for this season. Both teams are winless, as Southern has played South Dakota and Iowa and East Texas A&M has played Iowa, South Dakota, and Texas A&M.

But, there are a few interesting things about the two teams that lead me to a bet in this game. Both teams had success getting to the rim against stiffer competition, though Southern has been there more frequently. The Jaguars already have 10 dunks on the season and are shooting 63% on Close Twos, going 43-of-68. They’ve only taken 22 mid-range jumpers. They are shooting 11-of-39 from 3, but Jordan Johnson is 2-for-13 by himself.

East Texas A&M is 4-for-9 on dunks and has 73 shot attempts on Close Twos as defined by Torvik. That’s one of the reasons why this total has jumped 4-5 points in the market. These two offenses actually found some success against much stiffer competition.

For me, the difference in this game is that I think it’s more repeatable for Southern under second year head coach Kevin Johnson, a longtime assistant at Tulane and Louisiana. The Lions were 341st in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, as they were among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation. Southern was 316th, but a much better shooting team. A high TO% hurt them.

Southern pushes teams to the outside. So far this season, opponents have taken a 3 on 52.5% of their shots. East Texas A&M projects to be a terrible 3-point shooting team. Meanwhile, the Lions allowed opponents to take a Close Two on 49.8% of shot attempts last season.

To me, Southern should get the higher percentage looks in this game and that’s the difference.

Pick: Southern -3.5

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-10.5, 152.5)

8 p.m. ET

We’ve seen a line jump in this one between Oral Roberts and Tulsa, as Eric Konkol’s crew has gone from -8.5 to -10.5. Tulsa is a team with high hopes this season after an 11-win improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 of the Konkol era. He did very well over seven seasons at Louisiana Tech and inherited a Tulsa team in need of a rebuild.

It looks as though he succeeded. Even though he was unable to keep PJ Haggerty, who transferred within the division to Memphis, and Cobe Williams left, I think Tulsa is a much more balanced team this season. Keaston Willis is back off of his season-ending injury from last year and the Golden Hurricane should get more from one-time Michigan recruit Isaiah Barnes, plus they have a Big Ten guy in Braeden Carrington and an efficient Georgia State transfer in Dwon Odom.  

With more options around the perimeter, I think Tulsa can improve upon their 31.3% and 32.1% 3-point showings in the Konkol years and should also take better care of the basketball.

I don’t see much optimism with Oral Roberts. Russell Springmann’s first season was a massive flop, as the team was among the worst in the nation in ORB% and FT Rate. They were also poor on the defensive end. I don’t see a ton of rim protection beyond 6-foot-10 Josh Jones, who couldn’t crack the lineup often last season. Isaac McBride is a good player, but secondary scoring will be hard to find.

The Golden Eagles had a 29% shot share on Close Twos last season per Torvik, which ranked 345th. They settled for a lot of 3s and shot 36%, but Jailen Bedford and Kareem Thompson are gone, so they lost 118 3-pointers and 36.8% from those two.

Pick: Tulsa -10.5

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