College Basketball Bets
It’s tournament time in college basketball. No, not that tournament since the calendar still reads November and not March. We have a lot of holiday tournaments this week and next as teams play non-conference opponents, but do it in one spot to limit travel costs. As a result, we’ve got some really early tip-offs over the next several days, but these fields often create some good matchups and also some games that could have an impact when the Selection Committee gets to work.
We’ve got 67 games in total today, so there are a lot of things to sort through. There are also going to be teams playing back-to-back days in these events or sometimes three days in a row, so it’s vital to analyze the depth and how the game(s) before played out. Like fading an overtime team or maybe fading a team that only plays six or seven players or suffers an injury.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State Mountaineers (-1.5, 132.5)
6:30 p.m. ET
The boys from Boone host the 49ers from Charlotte with a 6:30 p.m. ET tip time. Charlotte is off to a 2-2 start with losses against Davidson and Virginia Tech, easily the two best teams that they’ve played so far. This year’s version of App State is closer to Indiana State, who Charlotte beat by 16 in the season opener.
App State is off to a 3-2 start, but one of their wins was over a lower-division opponent. The Mountaineers are playing their second-best opponent of the season with a 22-point loss to Ohio State in their biggest test. But, they did go to Dartmouth and win by 8 last weekend.
This total has been whacked pretty hard, as it has dropped six points from open and then went back up a couple of points. These are two slow-paced teams. Charlotte was 308th in adjusted tempo last season and 356th the season prior as Aaron Fearne begins his third year. App State was 352nd in adjusted tempo last season after being 212th the year prior. We’ll see which version of them we get this season.
However, I like the Over in this game. In Charlotte’s four games, they’ve scored 1.331, 1.066, .947, and 1.147 points per possession. They actually did very well on the offensive glass against Virginia Tech and scored 76 points in 66 possessions. However, they also gave up 1.268 PPP and have given up well over 1 PPP in three of their four games. The only one they didn’t was against Tennessee Tech and that game still went over this total (135) in 66 possessions.
App State has had two atrocious defensive performances, allowing 1.263 PPP to Central Michigan and 1.220 to Ohio State. But, they’ve also scored over 1 PPP against everybody but the Buckeyes, including 1.179 in the last game against Dartmouth.
I also like Charlotte’s height in this game. They have 7-foot-2 Anton Bonke, who has a 21.5% Usage Rate and is shooting 76% at the rim. Last game saw the return of 6-foot-11 Kuluel Mading, who had 12 points in just 18 minutes of action against the Hokies. The Norfolk State product shot 60% on 2s last season. App State’s rim protection is mostly limited to Luke Wilson, so if he gets in foul trouble, it’ll be a problem.
I actually like Charlotte in a dog role here to go along with the Over. Both teams should also see some improvements at the free throw line and Charlotte should improve upon their 53.2% FG% on Close Twos.
Picks: Charlotte +1.5 (-112); Over 132.5 (-108)
UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-3.5, 150.5) at Radford Highlanders
7 p.m. ET
Radford made a really interesting hire prior to the season. The Highlanders brought in 33-year-old Zach Chu, a Richmond grad who had never been a head coach before. He was an assistant coach in the NBA G League with the Texas Legends from 2016-19 and then transitioned into an analyst role. Chu was with the Mavericks, Pacers, and SMU as the chief strategist before taking the Radford gig.
I love the hire. I love when teams think outside the box and embrace analytics in a big way. But, it sure seems like it’s taking some time to settle in. Radford’s only two wins have been against lower-division teams. In games against North Carolina, Wright State, Cleveland State, and South Carolina, Radford has lost by 15, 33, 5, and 29. They’ve scored .908, .815, .999, and .817 PPP while allowing well over 1 PPP on defense.
If you’ve read my CBB stuff before, you know I love teams with a high Rim & 3 rate and minimal mid-range jumpers. Radford’s Rim & 3 Rate is nearly 82%, which is great. The problem is that they are shooting 51.2% on Close Twos and 24.4% on 3s. Their 41.5% 3P Rate is much higher than last season’s 36.5%, not that there are a lot of familiar faces on the roster from the Darris Nichols era.
In time, this may all work out and a program like Radford is really only worried about conference play with one NCAA Tournament berth available in the Big South. But, there are a lot of things going on here. Meanwhile, UNC Wilmington, with longtime head coach Takayo Siddle still in the saddle at this program, looks very good again this season. They’ve even struggled to convert at the rim with a 53.2% FG% on Close Twos, but they just blew out East Carolina with a big effort from 3-point land. They got outscored 45-18 on 3s in a nine-point loss to Kent State, as the Golden Flashes were 15-of-34 from 3. That’s an outlier performance.
I think the Seahawks get a nice road win here against a team clearly in a state of transition.
Pick: UNC Wilmington -3.5 (-110)
Niagara Purple Eagles at Duke Blue Devils (-39.5, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET
It should be an interesting night at Cameron Indoor. Duke plays North Carolina in football tomorrow, so we’ll have to see if the Cameron Crazies are out in full force or if they’re saving up their energy for that one in Chapel Hill.
What’s also interesting about this game is that the two head coaches were teammates at Duke. Niagara’s Greg Paulus played for the Blue Devils from 2005-09 and Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer played there from 2006-10. This is Scheyer’s fourth season at the helm in Durham and Paulus has been at Niagara since 2019-20 and has just one winning record in that span.
But, Niagara does play at a snail’s pace, as they ranked 302nd in adjusted tempo last season. Is Scheyer willing to slow Duke down to avoid totally embarrassing his former teammate? This is the first meeting between Niagara and Duke in Scheyer’s tenure. Duke also plays a former Blue Devil player in Kenny Blakeney when Howard comes to town on Sunday.
Scheyer didn’t hold back when Duke went to Army 10 days ago and won 114-59, as the Black Knights fired 49 3-pointers and took just 19 2-point shots. That was more about Coach K, who played at Army and coached at Army from 1975-80.
Niagara is obviously very overmatched in this one, but I have to think that the Purple Eagles show up for their coach here and try to keep him from getting as badly run off the floor as possible. For Scheyer, this is an opportunity to slow things down coming off of the game against Kansas in the Champions Classic with Arkansas, Florida, and Michigan State coming up in the next couple of weeks.
Niagara, to their credit, is off to a 37.8% start from 3, even with an awful 2-of-14 to open the season at Duquesne. If they can hit a few shots, and Scheyer takes mercy on his buddy, they can cover this number.
Pick: Niagara +39.5 (-105)
