College Basketball Bets
You won’t find a lot of busy college basketball Fridays during the regular season, as that’s usually a day of rest for the 100+ games coming up on Saturday. But, we have a pretty busy Friday on November 7 with 57 games featuring two Division I teams. There are 19 more games with Division I teams playing lower-division opponents, which is hardly a gimme. We’ve seen two D-2 teams win already.
These types of schedules can be pretty daunting because we know so little about the teams. My recommendation? Conference specialization. Focus your attention on 3-4 conferences, preferably ones that will play their regular season games on different days, so that you can become an expert on those teams and give yourself a good chance at having an edge over the books.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Charleston Cougars at Liberty Flames (-8.5, 148.5)
6 p.m. ET
This is a line that has been running thus far today, as Liberty is up from -6.5 to -8.5 in this matchup. Torvik has the game lined at Liberty -10.3 and KenPom was higher than the market opener as well. Haslametrics has this one projected 77.4-70.0 for Liberty. When these two teams played last season, Liberty crushed Charleston 68-47 in a back-to-back for the Flames, but Charleston had beaten Florida Atlantic in double overtime a couple days prior.
In this year’s Blue Ribbon Yearbook, Charleston head coach Chris Mack talked about getting more athletic. For a coach that wants to run with tempo to be so reliant on 6-foot-10 big Ante Brzovic definitely made things a little bit tricky. Brzovic took 206 of the team’s 717 Close Two shot attempts and had a 27.1% Usage Rate.
This season, Mack can have his guard-heavy lineup distribute the basketball around and play more of a style that he’s accustomed to from his days at Louisville and Xavier, where he had 6-foot-6, 6-foot-7 wings and good point guards to run the show. Hopefully Campbell transfer Colby Duggan plays tonight after missing the opener against Tusculum, a 79-58 win for Charleston in which they shot 1-of-24 from 3. He was the Camels’ leading scorer last season.
Liberty is probably a little bit overrated in the early going here because they have so much returning production. Obviously there’s something to be said about continuity and four of their top-five scorers are back this season. They’ll be good again and should win Conference USA, but I think Mack’s roster has a much higher ceiling than last season and that isn’t being respected enough here, especially with a more athletic roster to be able to get to Liberty on the perimeter.
Pick: Charleston +8.5 (-105)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-1.5, 153.5) at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
7 p.m. ET
Down to Nagodoches we go for Arkansas State and Stephen F. Austin. I took Ohio against Arkansas State earlier this week, but the Bobcats were no match for the Red Wolves offense. New head coach Ryan Pannone came from Alabama, where Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide perennially have one of the nation’s higher Rim & 3 Rates.
Well, in the first game for Arky State, they had 54 shot attempts at the rim or from 3 and took only two mid-range jumpers. They basically got whatever they wanted on offense and had 1.181 points per possession despite 18 turnovers. They also forced the issue and got to the free throw line, plus they knocked down their free throws to seal the game, going 25-of-28 overall. Pannone was able to play pretty much everybody in the game and every single player to check into the game had a shot attempt at the rim per Torvik.
Stephen F. Austin also has a new head coach in Matt Braeuer. The former Texas Tech and North Texas assistant with Grant McCasland dug into the JUCO ranks for pure scorers. I’m sure he wants his team to play good defense moving forward, but guys like Lateef Patrick and Ahamed Mohammed probably face a learning curve with playing Division I-caliber defense.
Braeuer will probably slow the tempo down eventually, as McCasland’s teams played at a snail’s pace, but they did take a lot of 3s and did very well doing it. McCasland may be known as a defensive guy, but he’s had four teams in the top 100 in eFG% over the last six seasons and another that was 104th. All of them were top 85 or better in 3P%. That’s about personnel, but also about scheme.
Ohio had 1.128 PPP against Arkansas State, as they’re still figuring things out defensively. I think this one should be high-scoring and we’re likely to get a lot of 3-point attempts and high-percentage looks in the paint.
Pick: Over 153.5 (-108)
Rice Owls at Oregon Ducks (-15.5, 144.5)
10 p.m. ET
It was a rough start to the season for Oregon, as they needed a buzzer-beater to beat visiting Hawaii. Dana Altman’s team has high expectations this season with both Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle back for another season. Unfortunately, Shelstad’s season is going to start late with a hand injury. Also, Kwame Evans Jr., expected to be a bigger part of the rotation this season, is questionable with a knee injury. He had seven points and three boards in the Hawaii game.
It’s a long trip for Rice, but I think Rob Lanier is a really good coach and his availability was a gift for Rice when SMU fired him. I wrote about the American Conference in our College Basketball Betting Guide and really liked what Rice did to improve last season and they’ve added more scoring this season.
The Owls made enormous strides on defense last season, going from 293rd in eFG% defense to 51st. They went from 156th in 2P% defense to 49th. The offense took a big step back, but there are signs of improvement. Trae Broadnax saw his numbers drop going from the Big South to the American, but he should be better equipped this season. Nick Anderson Jr., Jordan Williams, and Dallas Hobbs were all double-digit scorers at previous stops.
Rice has limited NIL funds, an ongoing problem on the football side, not to mention strict academic requirements and a low enrollment. Lanier was able to install a hard-working, blue-collar mentality for this team to keep them in games. They went 13-19, but 12 of those 19 losses were by six or fewer points. They’re a hard team to blow out. They’re also a positive regression candidate after going 5-12 in those games.
Oregon is desperate to find somebody who can create on offense like Shelstad. Not surprisingly, Bittle was 3-of-8 from the floor while drawing a ton of attention. Oregon turned the ball over 21 times against Hawaii. Rice probably won’t force as many turnovers, but they’re likely to be pretty tough on defense and have more scoring punch this season.
Pick: Rice +15.5 (-110)
