College Basketball Bets
A neat and tidy 25 games are on the Monday schedule in college hoops, as we start the third week of the season. We are racking up important data points each and every day, but sample sizes are still pretty small and strength of schedule metrics remain all over the place, so it can be tough to rely heavily on the stats and numbers at this time. That being said, they do shed some light on where things stand with these teams and how the season has gone to this point.
All of today’s games are packed into a nice window with the first tip-off at 6:30 p.m. ET and the last two tip-offs around 10 p.m. ET. Tomorrow night is the Champions Classic, which kind of serves as opening night of the CBB season for a lot of people, as Tuesday night is a good window for watching college hoops, especially between the big brands. Tonight, we have a small number of top-tier teams in action and the ones we have are big favorites.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
VCU Rams at NC State Wolfpack (-12.5, 165.5)
7 p.m. ET
Tempo will be the story in this one between VCU and NC State. There should be a lot of possessions and a lot of points in this game, but, as the line implies, it looks like one team should have more success scoring them.
The Wolfpack brought in one of the top transfer classes in the nation per 247Sports and CBB Analytics. In fact, looking at per-40 stats at CBB Analytics, NC State brought in six transfers that ranked in the 69th percentile or higher in PTS/40, three players in the 97th percentile or higher in AST/40, and four players in the 66th percentile or higher in REB/40. VCU’s top two transfers were players from Bryant that first-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr. brought with him.
In three games thus far, VCU has allowed a 50% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks 351st in the nation. Opponents, however, have only shot 42.9% on those attempts. That’s not going to be sustainable and they’re going to give up a lot of points on the interior. That’s 91 shot attempts over three games, so just over 30 per game. In a game like this, which will get into the upper 70s or maybe higher in possessions, NC State should be able to slice to the basket and get a lot of high-percentage looks.
Utah State, the only real team VCU has played thus far, was 18-of-35 on Close Two shot attempts. They only took 13 3-pointers and still scored 80 points. NC State takes a lot more 3s and will continue to do so under first-year head coach Will Wade, who will get back to pushing the pace in Raleigh after a couple of slow-paced seasons at McNeese State, where the Cowboys were just way better than anybody else in the Southland.
NC State hasn’t played a great schedule either, but they’re shooting over 69% on 2s and over 44% on 3s. With a week off after this game, I think they’ll be extremely focused.
Pick: NC State -12.5 (-112)
Colgate Raiders at Siena Saints (-6.5, 148.5)
7 p.m. ET
A short bus ride from Madison County took Colgate to Albany to take on Siena. I played an Under on Colgate earlier this season and got very unlucky, as they combined with Drexel to score 173 points. The 83-point outburst for Colgate marks the only game in which they’ve scored over a point per possession, though it is worth noting that they’ve played Michigan State and Illinois.
But, Northeastern held the Raiders to .961 PPP and none of Colgate’s games have been played to more than 69 possessions. I don’t think this one gets into the 70s against Siena either. The Saints run a pretty methodical offense, hardly a surprise with Gerry McNamara as head coach. The Syracuse legend played to about an average pace last season, but I think the Saints could slow down a tad this season, as the transfer portal brought some bigs to the roster and now Siena can play inside-out a little bit.
The Saints rely heavily on the pick-and-roll offense and it often takes a little bit of time to get settled into the half-court and work that style of play. Siena’s three games have been played to 67, 67, and 64 possessions. They’ve also only made 12 3-pointers this season, as McNamara seems hellbent on getting the ball inside more this season. Their 25.4% 3P Rate ranks 360th in the nation and they’ve only shot 26.7% on those attempts.
But, they’re also running teams off the 3-point line on defense with just a 31.2% 3P Rate against. Colgate’s offense is full of regression signs in my opinion, especially the 50% success rate on mid-range jumpers. They have three primary players shooting 56.5% or better on Farther Twos as defined by Torvik and that strikes me as highly unsustainable. They’ve also had to take 74 of those shots compared to 70 shot attempts at the rim because they can’t run the offense through 6-foot-11 Jeff Woodward, who led the team in Usage Rate last season.
Both teams shot the lights out in the Drexel game, as Colgate was 29-of-46 from the floor and also had a bunch of free throw attempts. The Dragons were 15-of-34 from 3. I really don’t see that being the norm and think this is a good spot to follow through on my handicap of Colgate for this season.
Pick: Under 148.5 (-115)
Southern Illinois Salukis (-1.5, 155.5) at North Dakota State Bison
8 p.m. ET
The Missouri Valley was one of my conferences for our College Basketball Betting Guide and Southern Illinois was a team that I isolated as a buy team in the conference. Head coach Scott Nagy hadn’t had a losing season since 2009-10, but his first year with the Salukis was marred by a terrible turnover margin and bad free throw shooting.
This year’s transfer portal class should allow Nagy to play with the tempo that he wants, as the Salukis were 139th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik. That was Nagy’s lowest ranking since 2019, as he had a lot of successful seasons at Wright State and also South Dakota State before heading to Carbondale. Nagy’s Wright State teams were good at getting to the rim and good on the offensive glass. His Southern Illinois team was neither.
While the portal presents a lot of challenges, it also provides opportunity for coaches to make their rosters look the way that they want. Nagy clearly didn’t have the team he wanted last season and should be closer to that now. This should also be a good matchup for what Nagy wants to do. Summit League teams are jump shot-oriented and often lack impactful bigs. The Bison do not have many bigs of note and they’re shooting 19.6% on 3s with a 45.5% 3P Rate.
That will improve as we go along, but David Richman is missing a ton of production from last season’s team. The offense ran through 6-foot-10 Jacksen Moni, who shot nearly 40% from 3 and 58% at the rim. Jacari White and Masen Miller shot 39% and 45.2%, respectively, from 3. They’re gone, so this is a rebuilt roster with hopes that Noah Feddersen can replace Moni, but he’s 1-of-11 from 3 thus far. He’s more of a post-up player who will be asked to play a stretch 5 role and I’m not sure it’ll work early in the season or throughout.
Pick: Southern Illinois -1.5 (-102)
