College Basketball Bets
The fourth week of the college basketball season begins with 56 games, including a whole lot of neutral-site games and daytime matchups. There are several multi-team events (MTE) that we used to call tournaments going on, including a huge one out here in Las Vegas played at Mandalay Bay and MGM Grand. The Player Era Festival features some outstanding games, including Alabama vs. Gonzaga tonight and Iowa State vs. St. John’s this afternoon.
College basketball fanatics have tip-offs all day from 11 a.m. until 11:59 p.m. ET, so it will be a fun one, especially for those looking to be distracted until Monday Night Football. Remember with these neutral-site events and others hosted by teams that you’ll often get teams playing on back-to-back days and also have some unique sightlines that could challenge shooters. All factors to consider, among many others, this week.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
James Madison Dukes at FIU Panthers (-2.5, 155.5)
7 p.m. ET
One of the few home games on the slate, FIU hosts James Madison as the Panthers play their first Division I game against a pretty comparable opponent. The Panthers have beaten lower-division Florida National and Fort Lauderdale around losses to Nebraska and LSU on the road. They’ll welcome JMU to Miami with the Dukes 0-3 on the road this season, including losses by 14, 10, and 9, with two of them to lower-ranked opponents.
I’ll give FIU a lot of credit. Defensively, they had all kinds of issues against Nebraska and LSU, but they were able to get to the rim. The Panthers had a 50.7% shot share on Close Twos in those two games, so they gave themselves a chance with high-percentage looks and also had a 34.8% ORB% in those two games.
So far this season, the Dukes have allowed a 46.2% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks 322nd in the nation. FIU’s ability to get to the rim could play a huge role in this one if JMU’s 3-point prowess regresses to the mean. This is a 3-3 team shooting 40.6% from 3. Outside of their game against lower-division Washington & Lee and Coppin State, one of the worst D-I teams in the nation, they’ve allowed 1.181, 1.172, 1.160, and 1.221 points per possession.
The only reason that they beat Towson last time out is because they outscored them 36-18 on 3-pointers. Towson took 61 shots compared to James Madison’s 46 with a huge advantage on the offensive glass. FIU should have one tonight too and I can’t see the Dukes continuing to fire at 41% from 3.
Pick: FIU -2.5 (-112)
NJIT Highlanders at Cincinnati Bearcats (-34.5, 140.5)
7 p.m. ET
NJIT is getting a big head start for this one against Cincinnati, as the Highlanders absolutely look overmatched, but that’s a lot of points. The Bearcats lost their top player and scorer Baba Miller to an injury in the last game against Louisville and I haven’t seen an update on his status, as he got hit hard in the hip on a rough foul. Right now, Day Day Thomas, Moustapha Thiem, and Miller are the only ones doing much on offense for the Bearcats.
NJIT will be the worst team that Cincinnati has faced, but they’ve only exceeded 1 PPP in one of their five games, mustering just .981 against Georgia State and .986 against Mount St. Mary’s. Cincinnati is playing a little bit faster than how I’d expect them to play out most of the season, so I do think that they will slow down and their games will be a little more condensed moving forward. NJIT also plays at around an average tempo.
Cincinnati hasn’t shot the 3 well thus far, firing away at just 29.4%. Making long-distance shots usually helps when it comes to covering big spreads. They’re also only shooting 63.3% as a team at the free throw line. This feels like the type of game to me where Miller wants to slow everything down and focus on getting good, high-percentage looks in the half-court. If we project this game out to around 67 or 68 possessions and say that Cincinnati gets around 1.1 PPP, that’s about 75 points. They could certainly do better. Say, 1.2 PPP at 68 possessions and that’s 82 points. Can NJIT get into the 50s if need be? I think there’s certainly a chance that they can. And I think I’m being a little generous with the Bearcats offense.
Plus, with nobody really scoring, maybe Miller looks down the bench to see if he can get any supplemental help. That could slow the game down more and also create efficiency problems for UC.
Pick: NJIT +34.5 (+115)
