College Basketball Bets
We’ve got 33 college basketball games on the slate for Thursday night and none of them carry the weight of some of the marquee matchups we’ve had the last couple of days. But, that doesn’t mean we don’t have good games and matchups with a lot of intrigue. It just means that casual college hoops fans won’t be as invested in what’s on the docket.
That said, there are some really good games tonight in terms of teams that could be fighting for at-large berths when all is said and done for the regular season and a lot of marquee teams are laying big numbers in advance of some stiffer tests with upcoming tournaments. There will be some early games with those tournaments this week and next, but I still won’t start looking at the games until later in the day to be able to give enough lead time to readers.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Robert Morris Colonials at St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-11.5, 146.5)
6 p.m. ET
After a couple of games against lower-division opponents followed by a week’s worth of practice, Robert Morris heads north to take on St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies are off to an impressive 4-0 start, as they’ve knocked off Bradley, Canisius, Siena, and Youngstown State. They’ll play their second straight Horizon League opponent in this one.
“Bobby Mo” lost all five starters and a ton of production from last year’s Horizon champs. For a completely, ahem, retooled roster for head coach Andrew Toole, playing four games in nine days and then stepping back to see what’s working and what isn’t is a smart move. Also, while they got blown out by Iowa, the Colonials did beat a solid Drake team two days later.
Ultimately, this is a pretty simple and straightforward handicap. St. Bonaventure plays slowly under head coach Mark Schmidt. Their four games this season have been played to 66, 64, 64, and 70 possessions, with the fast game against a Youngstown State team that likes to push it a little. The Bonnies were 320th in adjusted tempo last season and haven’t been higher than 264th since 2018. I don’t see this year’s team moving faster.
Furthermore, through four games, the Bonnies only have a 28.5% 3P Rate. Last year’s team was 275th in that department, so we may see a few more 3-point attempts moving forward, but it’s not like this team bombs away from deep. Playing at a slow tempo without taking or making a lot of 3s makes it hard to cover numbers.
Also, Robert Morris played slightly above the average tempo last season, so this shouldn’t be an up-and-down affair. The Colonials have also done well on the offensive glass in their two D-I games, possibly neutralizing something that the Bonnies have done well so far this season with ORebs of their own.
Pick: Robert Morris +11.5 (-108)
Northern Kentucky Norse at Central Michigan Chippewas (-4.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
Two programs that experienced a lot of turnover meet up, as Northern Kentucky travels up to Mount Pleasant to take on Central Michigan. For the Norse, their changes are all on the roster, as Darrin Horn put together a multi-national roster with players from all corners of the globe. The hope was that Sam Vinson would get a waiver for another season of eligibility, but that hasn’t happened, so Horn is working with a lot of new players.
Both wins for NKU have come against lower-division opponents, as they’ve beaten UC Clermont and Cumberlands with losses to Tennessee and East Tennessee State in between. The game against the Vols is easy to draw a line through for a matchup against a team like Central Michigan, but the ETSU game had some particularly concerning data points. The Norse turned it over on nearly 25% of their possessions and only had .872 points per possession.
Also, aside from the UC Clermont game, the Norse haven’t been getting to the free throw line much to make life easier on themselves. But, what really concerns me the most here against Central Michigan and new head coach Andy Bronkema is how these two teams match up stylistically.
The Chips have done well on the offensive glass in three of their four games, including the season opener against Appalachian State. Bronkema’s Ferris State teams were very aggressive on defense and ran a lot of press. We haven’t really seen that yet from the Chips, but with five days off prior to this game, we could see more of it, especially with a Northern Kentucky backcourt that is inexperienced.
There is nobody on the Norse roster that can neutralize 7-footer Nathan Claerbaut, a transfer that Bronkema brought over from Ferris State. Even if Claerbaut needs a blow, 6-foot-10 Nick Mullen has averaged six points and five rebounds per contest, including six offensive rebounds in four games in just 75 minutes played.
Central Michigan should win the turnover battle and their 51.2% FG% at the rim should improve as we move forward.
Pick: Central Michigan -4.5 (-115)
Saint Joseph’s at UNLV (-10.5, 164.5)
10 p.m. ET
I can certainly understand bettors that want to shy away from UNLV right now. The Rebels opened the season with a loss to UT Martin at home. They followed that up with a blowout win over Chattanooga before giving up 102 points in a loss at home to Montana. Maybe going on the road to Memphis galvanized the team a bit, as they beat the Tigers by 14.
So those results are as disparate as it gets. By Torvik’s Game Score metric, the Rebels have played games of 15, 90, 18, and 97 this season. Before hosting a huge college hoops tournament in Sin City this weekend and early next week with the “Players Era” at multiple venues on the Las Vegas Strip, the Rebels get a visit from Saint Joseph’s.
This is the first long travel for Joe’s, as they’ve played a Big 5 rival in Penn and played in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech. So far, the Hawks are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, scoring just .797 PPP against the Hokies and .986 against the Quakers, as first-year head coach Steve Donahue lost to the program he left when he took this job.
It is impossible to make enough excuses to account for UNLV losing to Montana, but there were some factors at play in that game. Howie Fleming Jr., who led the Rebels with 25 points and 12 rebounds in the win over Memphis, picked up two early fouls, returned for a minute, and picked up his third in the first half against the Grizzlies. He only played 10 minutes in that game.
Isaac Williamson, who had 25 points and five steals against Memphis, played just 22 minutes against Montana, as he, too, dealt with major foul trouble. Fleming and Williamson played 39 and 35 minutes, respectively, against Memphis. Donahue teams don’t attack the basket much, as his Hawks are 304th in FT Rate this season and his Quakers were 332nd two seasons ago. In fact, they were 292nd or worse in four of his final six seasons at Penn.
The late start, the long travel, the matchup, the styles, and Josh Pastner finding out more and more about a more talented team are all factors in laying the double-digit price here.
Pick: UNLV -10.5 (-102)
