College Basketball Bets
We have 25 lined college basketball games for Thursday, as we have 19 other Division I teams playing lower-division opponents. Much like last night, noteworthy teams are few and far between, but we’ve got a few of them on the schedule. We’re all flying a little blind into these matchups, given that the vast majority of rosters are brand new and what we’re seeing now might not be what we get later, but the hope is to be on the right side in a high-variance environment.
Today’s set of odds is once again full of drastic line movement, especially on totals. That will continue to be the case until there are enough data points to figure out what’s real and what isn’t. A lot of games seem to be higher-scoring thus far and tempos are up, which usually levels off as we go along, but maybe not all that quickly.
Like I said yesterday, it seems like teams are having a harder time figuring out how to play defense together than they are about playing offense. We’ll see if that trend continues.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-16.5, 138.5)
7 p.m. ET
Stared at this one for a while this morning before deciding to fire. Campbell is not playing at the snail’s pace that they did under Kevin McGeehan, as new head coach John Andrzejek is a rising star in the coaching world as a recent assistant under Kyle Smith and Todd Golden. He actually had a stellar transfer portal class, especially in terms of CAA standards.
Unfortunately, while these are guys that should find some CAA success getting inside and creating opportunities, they probably won’t against West Virginia. First-year head coach Ross Hodge spent the last two seasons at North Texas, where his teams allowed shot shares against of 33.7% (50th) and 34.9% (119th). The Mean Green played at a slow pace and West Virginia will do the same, but the Camels are likely to struggle to get inside and that could create frustration and a lot of contested shots.
The Mountaineers, meanwhile, have capable scorers at all three levels, including Honor Huff, who should be the team’s sharpshooter from 3 as a career 39.6% guy. Morris Ugusuk from South Carolina shot over 40% last season. Treysen Eaglestaff is a career 37% shooter from 3. Others can get inside and score.
I expect West Virginia to have more success in the 3-point department and Campbell also had 19 turnovers against West Virginia. North Texas had a pressure defense that was 55th and 44th in TO% on defense in two seasons. They should get extra possessions here and be able to lengthen the lead as a result.
Pick: West Virginia -16.5 (-112)
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks (-1.5, 149.5)
8 p.m. ET
The betting market isn’t really sure what to do with the spread on this game. The total has already dropped several points, but the side has more or less stayed frozen. UC Riverside played a lower-division opponent and won 90-49, while North Dakota got pummeled by Alabama, so we don’t really have a whole lot to go on with either of these teams.
I do think that the Highlanders could be a very fascinating team this season. Mike Magpayo is now at Fordham and UC Riverside hired Gus Argenal from Cal State San Bernardino. That was a terrific program under Cal State Northridge head coach Andy Newman and they made the NCAA D-II Final Four in Gus Argenal’s first season. Argenal has been a longtime D-I assistant and the CSSB job was his second head coaching gig and first since being an assistant twice with Eric Musselman.
Musselman teams are known for being very in-your-face defensively in hopes of pressuring bad shots or forcing turnovers. They are also known for playing with tempo. UC Riverside had a 29.4% shot share on Close Twos last season, which ranked 357th in the nation. The Highlanders were in the 300s in free throw rate in three of Magpayo’s five seasons. This team is going to force the issue a lot more.
Argenal has brought some of his CSSB players with him and also looked nationwide in the transfer portal. This is a really big team and one that will be feisty on the offensive glass. In other words, things that you don’t really see in the Summit League. I don’t think Paul Sather is a very good head coach for starters, but the Summit League is known for a lot of passive defense, low turnover rates, and a lot of jump shots.
Stylistically, I much prefer UC Riverside’s style here. The top returnee for the Hawks is Eli King, who shot just 42.5% on 2s and was just a 46.6% converter at the rim. Josh Jones from Oral Roberts played 27 minutes last game and he was a turnover machine in two seasons with a TO% over 28%. There is only one senior on the ND roster and a lot of freshmen coming off the bench.
This was the 334th-ranked team for Torvik entering the season and in the 310s for KenPom. Last year’s North Dakota team was 3-9 against Division I opponents prior to January 9. I like UC Riverside’s hire and the changes they’ve made on both ends of the floor.
Pick: UC Riverside ML (-108)
