College Basketball Bets
Tonight is what some people consider the start of the college basketball season. Casual fans don’t really pay much attention until the Champions Classic, which features Kentucky vs. Michigan State and Duke vs. Kansas at Madison Square Garden. As we know, we’ve already had 15 days worth of college basketball games, so welcome to the party for those who are arriving late.
Those marquee matchups are just two of 56 games on the slate for tonight. It is a busy evening of college hoops as non-conference play continues to roll along. A couple teams – Coppin State and UTSA – play early against lower-division opponents, but every Division I vs. Division I game starts at 6:30 p.m. ET or later.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
East Carolina Pirates at UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-6.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
North Carolina bragging rights are on the line here between East Carolina (Greenville) and UNC Wilmington, as the Seahawks lay a home number. UNCW has a loss on the ledger to Kent State, but that was an odd game to say the least. The Seahawks had 77 shot attempts compared to just 53 for the Golden Flashes. Furthermore, the Seahawks had 42 shot attempts at the rim, but only converted on 19 of them, as 7-footer Patrick Wessler was just 8-of-16 on Close Twos.
The Seahawks had a 17-7 edge in offensive rebounds and only turned the ball over seven times, but got outscored 45-18 on 3-pointers and that was ultimately the difference. Well, East Carolina is 11-for-61 on 3-pointers so far this season, including a 3-for-21 effort against the Elizabeth City State University Vikings in a 71-70 win last time out.
Last season, East Carolina was 345th in shot share against on Close Twos, but they were able to defend the interior well, holding teams to a 53.3% FG% on those types of shots. I don’t feel like being 345th in shot share and 24th in FG% is all that sustainable. But, opponents made up for it by shooting 38.4% from 3 on the Pirates. ECU only shot 31.2% on 3s and it looks like head coach Mike Schwartz is still looking for shooters out of his transfer portal class.
Wessler, a Virginia Tech transfer, shot 62% on 2s last season in fairly limited action, so he’s a better finisher than he’s shown thus far and a terrific rebounder. The Seahawks have only played two Division I games, but they have a 12.7% TO% on offense, but a 43.6% eFG%. I think positive regression is coming and it could happen against an ECU team with a lot to figure out.
Pick: UNC Wilmington -6.5 (-105)
Boston University Terriers at Columbia Lions (-6.5, 144.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Terriers take the floor for the fifth time this season and the Lions for the fourth time as we get this game in New York City between the Patriot League and Ivy League. BU is off to a 2-2 start and Columbia is 2-1. The Terriers probably deserve a better fate than their .500 record, but Merrimack was 19-of-30 from 3 in their most recent game, a 91-79 loss to the Warriors.
BU only had .863 points per possession against Northwestern, but has 1.021, 1.407, and 1.228 in their other three games, so Joe Jones’ team is doing good work on the offensive end. They were 10-of-35 on 2s against Northwestern, but are shooting 64.7% on 2s in their other three games. This is not a deep team, as only six or seven guys see the floor on a nightly basis, but that should mean that the starting five will get into rhythm faster than other rosters that are still trying to figure out their rotations.
Seven-footer Ben Defty is shooting 74% on Close Two shot attempts and he’s been able to help free up some good looks from 3 for Michael McNair and Sam Hughes. Offensively, things seem to be clicking pretty well for the Terriers right now and they’re getting a 6.5-point head start in this one.
Columbia has an outlier data point because they got crushed by UConn, but Kevin Hovde’s team has played well in the other two games against New Haven and UMass Lowell. The first-year head coach is now playing his first comparable opponent from a rankings standpoint, as Torvik has the Lions about 28 spots better than the Terriers, though KenPom has Columbia 70 spots better.
The Lions did have more returning production entering the season, but the returnees have had some difficulty adjusting to Hovde’s style. The former Todd Golden assistant is trying to preach a high Rim & 3 rate with that analytics-based approach and that means more interior touches and a bit of an inside-out game. The Lions don’t have good ball-handling bigs and have had a TO% over 24% in their two wins.
To me, this just seems like a tough spot for Columbia to win by 7+ against a team with good offensive efficiency numbers and a 7-footer who can be a matchup problem.
Pick: Boston U. +6.5 (-115)
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks at Longwood Lancers (-17.5, 138.5)
7 p.m. ET
A down-the-board special to say the least here, as UMES takes on Longwood. These two teams played last season and Longwood won 80-76, even though the Hawks turned the ball over 13 more times and had 15 fewer offensive rebounds. This should be a better version of Maryland-Eastern Shore, as Cleo Hill Jr. was actually able to do things in the portal this offseason as opposed to last offseason when he got hired in June.
He’s also able to do things in the portal because of what UMES has done so far with the schedule. In terms of Division I opponents, the Hawks have played Georgia Tech, Georgia, Nebraska, and Creighton, so three top-40 opponents and a Yellow Jackets team that they took to overtime in the season opener.
As you would expect with that type of gauntlet, the numbers are terrible for the Hawks, as they’re shooting 45% on Close Twos, 31% on mid-range jumpers, and 20.5% from 3. Longwood is a big step back defensively, as even a poor offensive team in Binghamton had 1.107 PPP in a 90-82 loss last time out.
The concern here is that Longwood does push the pace pretty hard for 33-year-old head coach Ronnie Thomas, who took over when Griff Aldrich went to be an assistant elsewhere. This strikes me as an empty the bench game for Thomas, as he looks to see what he has with his young players and depth guys. The Hawks have been able to play everybody with all the blowouts thus far, but this should be a game where the more efficient guys see the floor more often.
UMES also plays at a slower tempo than Longwood. We’ll see if they can slow this pace down a little bit. If nothing else, Binghamton had 15 offensive rebounds last game and Hill focused on toughness and height in the portal.
Pick: Maryland-Eastern Shore +17.5 (-108)
