College Basketball Bets
While we have less quantity, we seem to have more quality on the Tuesday college basketball card. There are 38 games on the docket, including Alabama vs. Illinois and Arizona vs. UConn as this evening’s spotlight games. But, there are a lot of quality mid-major matchups and some really interesting games throughout the course of the night.
As I mentioned on my guest appearance this morning on VSiN By The Books, we may just be looking at a very high-variance environment this season. UNLV lost to UT Martin and Montana before going to Memphis and winning. Maryland-Eastern Shore (+17.5) was a play last night and they even won outright over Longwood. Troy, who lost to Cal State Northridge and Loyola Marymount on this CA road trip, beat San Diego State as a double-digit dog. Buffalo won nine games last season and they’re already 5-0 this season, scoring 82 PPG in their four games against D-I opponents.
It’s just the nature of the beast early in the season, especially with so many new faces in new places, including coaches.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
UMass Lowell River Hawks at Bradley Braves (-20.5, 149.5)
8 p.m. ET
We start well down the Added Board with UMass Lowell vs. Bradley, as the River Hawks play the middle game of a five-game road trip. It hasn’t gone well, with a double-digit loss at Columbia and a total beatdown at Wake Forest, but they did play okay offensively in those two games, posting a 1.036 and .987 points per possession. It was the defense that was bad and has been bad in all four games.
I’m a really big Brian Wardle fan and I anticipate that Bradley gets things going, but this is not a good offense right now. The Braves had 1.241 PPP against Central Michigan in a blowout win, but have had .953, .914, and .942 in their other three games. All three opponents are obviously better than UMass Lowell, one of the lowest-rated teams in the nation.
But, Bradley, historically, plays at a below-average pace. They didn’t force a lot of turnovers last season. The top four guys in percentage of minutes – Duke Deen, Christian Davis, Darius Hannah, and Zek Montgomery – were all multi-year players in the system, which is a huge rarity nowadays. Some of the holdovers didn’t play a lot last season and the transfers are struggling to get acclimated.
UMass Lowell has been pushed up in pace so far this season by the teams they’ve played, but I don’t think Bradley does that to them and this is probably a game that lands around 66 or 67 possessions, if not a little lower given the anticipation of a blowout. That type of tempo would require Bradley to be extremely efficient on both ends of the floor to cover and I’m not sure they’re in sync enough right now to do that.
Pick: UMass Lowell +20.5 (-102)
Lipscomb Bisons at Belmont Bruins (-13.5, 158.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
This Music City Matchup is a rivalry game between Lipscomb and Belmont, as the two schools are less than two miles apart. We can’t even call it a crosstown rivalry, given that it takes about five minutes to travel between the two schools.
The last two games have been thrillers and one-point decisions, both falling in Belmont’s favor. These two teams look a lot different this season. There’s very little returning production for both, but Lipscomb is also without head coach Lennie Acuff. First-year head coach Kevin Carroll was part of Acuff’s staff when Acuff took over from current Belmont head coach Casey Alexander. Got all of that? Good.
The Bisons have some major defensive issues right now. In three games against Division I opponents, they’ve allowed 1.404, 1.338, and 1.065 points per possession and Vanderbilt, Mercer, and UNC Asheville have combined to shoot 59.3% on 2s and 47.1% on 3s. Belmont is annually one of the best offensive teams in the nation, especially on 2-point shots. Since Alexander took over for the 2019-20 season, Belmont has been 5th, 3rd, 1st, 59th, 35th, and 110th in 2P%, with the low mark coming last season. But, they’ve also been 5th, 21st, and 17th in 3P% over the last three seasons.
Under Alexander, Belmont has never been worse than 39th in eFG% offense. Last year’s team also wound up being terrible on defense, so a facelift for the roster was hardly a bad thing. I can’t say the same about Lipscomb, who lost an incredible amount of production in Jacob Ognacevic, Will Pruitt, Joe Anderson, and Gyasi Powell. Ognacevic averaged 20 and 8, while Pruitt, Anderson, and Powell were stat sheet fillers across the board, all in double figures, and all above the national average in 3P%.
I think this is a year where Belmont can really put it on their rivals and they won’t stop scoring here. So far this season, Belmont has a 52.9% shot share on Close Twos. Lipscomb has a 37.1% shot share and they’re shooting just 27% from 3.
Pick: Belmont -13.5 (-110)
Campbell Fighting Camels at Weber State Wildcats (-2.5, 159.5)
10 p.m. ET
Campbell is a long way from home here, as the Buies Creek, NC program is in Ogden, UT for the “Junction City Jam”. Situationally, there are a ton of factors in play here, right? For starters, it’s a 10 p.m. ET body clock game for Campbell. Ogden is 4,341 feet in elevation as well. Campbell has played road games in tough environments in Madison and Morgantown, so any fans in the stands won’t be an issue, but the other factors are absolutely in play.
Campbell lost to Wisconsin by 32 and West Virginia by 8 and then beat Western Michigan at home and lower-division Mid-Atlantic Christian. Weber State opened with their lone win over West Coast Baptist and then lost roadies to Utah, Utah State, and UC Irvine. In that game against the Anteaters, though, the Wildcats had 40 shots attempts at the rim. UCI is typically one of the best defensive teams in the paint, so the 50% finishing rate, while disappointing, is at least understandable.
In fact, the Wildcats are ninth in Close Two shot attempt rate per Torvik at 53.2% against a tough schedule. Torvik doesn’t count lower-division games in the metrics, so they’re really doing a good job of getting to the tin. Last year’s team had a 39.1% shot share on Close Twos, so Eric Duft might actually have guys that can attack the basket this season.
Obviously Campbell’s metrics are pretty incomplete with two top-tier opponents and then a poor Western Michigan team, but they have a first-year head coach and are working on a pretty big tempo overhaul after being one of the nation’s slowest teams for a long time. Add that to the travel, late start, and elevation, and I think it’s just an all-around bad situation.
Pick: Weber State -2.5 (+100)
