College Basketball Betting Systems for Early-Season Neutral Games:
It takes a large time investment to dig into the daily college basketball betting board at this time of year, with college and pro football, NBA, and NHL all going on at the same time. I commend those who are able to perform their full handicapping routines to get ready and be successful each day. Like many bettors, I dabble in college basketball betting during the early season, although I continue to maintain my strength ratings and monitor the results daily. Unfortunately, in my own personal routine, successful handicapping goes beyond just the ratings. With that in mind, if you are like me and only tend to concentrate on a small portion of the games each day, perhaps you’ll like what I am about to serve up here, as I’ve dug through my database for college hoops for the last 15 years and have come up with 10 intriguing betting concepts you might want to consider over the next month and a half when handicapping the neutral contests. In many cases, these neutral games tend to be the biggest ones of the early season.
In order to conduct this exercise, I pulled out of my database all of the neutral board games in November and December, dating back to the start of the 2010 season, or essentially, the last 15 seasons with games through 12/31/24. This database sample included some 4,665 games, certainly big enough to pull out some definitive betting patterns that have formed in that time. Naturally, with this big a sample size, we aren’t going to find much that gets up into the 70% range on point spreads or totals, but there was certainly enough in the strong profitability range to provide bettors with what should be an advantage in the coming weeks.
Even though there are a handful of games of this nature on Saturday, the Champions’ Classic, played next Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, is what really drove me to conduct this study. Of course, the Thanksgiving week always presents a plethora of great early-season neutral tournaments from sites like the Bahamas and Maui. So, enjoy the analysis and hopefully it helps you navigate the college basketball betting scene for the rest of the calendar year. If you’re looking for more college hoops coverage, you can always visit any of the handy info links on VSiN.com under the College Basketball tab, or follow any of the experts on the site offering up their own brand of handicapping.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #1: Dating back to 2010, in college basketball neutral games of November & December, huge favorites of 20 points or more have gone 94-2 SU but just 36-58-2 ATS (38.3%). That is obviously a pretty big number to lay in college basketball with a favorite that is playing in an unfamiliar environment after travel. Typically, these neutral games can have unusual rest routines associated with them as well, making covering big numbers even more difficult.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #2: More on the big favorites from #1 above, in that same time span, when these 20+-point favorites come in riding winning streaks of at least three games in a row, their record has been 41-1 SU but just 13-28-1 ATS (31.7%). Obviously, hot teams tend to receive more respect from oddsmakers, and this doesn’t tend to pay any additional benefit when it comes to covering huge numbers in neutral environments.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #3: As it has turned out, the best line range in which to back favorites in November/December college basketball neutral games has been in the -2.5 to -5.5 window. These favorites have gone 1143-620 SU and 909-815-36 ATS (52.7%) over the last 15 seasons. This is a very simple angle that has produced over 13 units of profit. It can be explained in that these favorites often benefit from the late-game fouling scenarios that can afflict small underdogs chasing points.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #4: Getting back to the winning streaks in early season neutral games, when teams riding winning streaks of 3 games or more have been underdogs in neutral court contests in the months of November and December since 2010, they have gone just 254-602 SU & 396-439-19 ATS (47.4%). This angle represents a loss of almost -87 units over the last 15 years. If you think about it, despite coming into these games playing good basketball, these teams are still underdogs. That should raise suspicion right off the bat. In over 70% of the games, these winning streaks come to a screeching halt.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #5: The opposite side of the streaking data is those big underdogs suffering from losing streaks of at least three games. While the change to a neutral environment typically doesn’t change their losing fortunes, it has made them more competitive. In fact, neutral court college basketball underdogs of 15 points or more in the months of November and December are on a skid of 4-58 SU, but they have gone 42-20 ATS (67.7%) in those games. Remember, it’s tough laying big numbers in early-season neutral games. Even though a team is skidding, it can get a motivational boost from a neutral environment contest that in most often a higher-profile game.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #6: One of the major factors that differs from most of the regular season in these early neutral games is that they can often be played on back-to-back days. When neutral court teams that won by 10 or more points the prior November/December day come back as underdogs in the follow-up contest, they have gone just 92-237 SU and 149-172-8 ATS (46.4%) dating back to 2010. Compare this to the record of when they are favored in the next game, 353-147 SU and 255-236-8 ATS (51.9%), and you get a nice 5.5% ATS swing, and what can easily be considered an assist from those behind the counter. Going further on that last note, when these teams are favored by single digits, the ATS record jumps nearly another 1.5% to 218-191 ATS (53.3%).
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #7: Winning a close game (<=3 points) and coming back the next day for another November/December neutral contest can provide a nice lift for teams, as they have gone 160-126 ATS (55.9%) in the quick follow-up contest. Clearly, a lot can be gained from pulling out a close game in a neutral or likely tournament type of atmosphere. Most often, these teams come back strong the next day.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #8: There is a bit of a danger that comes with getting too much rest heading into a neutral court contest in the early season, even for the best of teams. November/December double-digit neutral court favorites that haven’t played in at least a week (7+ days) have been lethargic, going 74-12 SU but 33-52-1 ATS (38.8%) over the last 15 seasons. Several of these systems stem from the same thought process…it’s tough laying a lot of points in games that require such a massive change in routine. Most of the best teams are playing the majority of their early-season contests at home. It’s much easier to get on a roll in that situation.
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #9: In the most popular of the early season (Nov/Dec) neutral games, you’ll find power conference teams squaring off. In these contests, there has proven to be a great opportunity in backing small favorites of 5 points or less. Since 2012, these teams have gone 270-164 SU and 231-191-2 ATS (54.7%) since 2012. These are essentially “one-possession” favorites, and they are aided by all of the circumstances of tight games coming down to the wire, where an underdog winning and/or covering comes down to a single shot or key possession. When that doesn’t work out, late-game fouling and free-throw shooting usually benefit the favorites.
This last systems cover high totals…
CBB Nov/Dec Neutral Game Betting System #12: There is a general handicapping belief in college basketball that neutral court games command lesser totals than usual from oddsmakers since neither team is familiar with the environment. Well, when these early season (Nov/Dec) neutral court games are given lofty totals of 150 or higher, and at least one of the teams played in a game the prior day, this mix has usually meant Unders, with Under the total going 175-140 (55.6%) since 2010. This is a foundational system that shows combining fatigue with an unfamiliar environment and still expecting high-scoring games doesn’t make sense.
Obviously, with all 10 of these systems, there are varying levels of recent success. However, as I have tried to explain in each of them, there is some foundation to each, and using them consistently should provide you with some advantage when handicapping these early-season college basketball neutral court contests.
