I’ve always believed that the last few weeks before any sport’s postseason are crucial. It is the point in the season when teams hope to play their best as they prepare to make a playoff or, in the case of college basketball, a tournament run. The teams that typically perform best have had consistent coaching staffs that have prepared their teams strategically to be ready for this time of year. If this logic sounds familiar to you, I often write about a similar situation in the NFL, where the best teams tend to rise in December. I believe you’ll find this entire article valuable, starting as soon as tonight, as the final two weeks for the power conferences start Monday, February 24th.

For what it’s worth, I’ve also always believed that there is an enhanced home-court advantage at this time of year. That will also prove vital over the next two weeks as we wrap up league play in the major conferences. With some regular season league titles still yet to be determined and the seeding for all the postseason tournaments not sorted out yet, there is a ton left to play for. As usual, with so much on the line, the strategy for handicapping the games should change a bit. It is often the case that odds makers will sway their lines slightly to reflect the “must-win” mentality of teams in key spots. Alternatively, they may shade the team that is playing out the string, already looking forward to the offseason.

 

The point spread is always the great equalizer for bookmakers, and with so much known about each of the teams by now, those bettors looking to cash tickets in the final two weeks should be aware of some foundational trends and systems that have produced strong results in recent years. Part of that should include late-season performance, especially in cases where coaching situations have remained consistent for teams.

In this piece, I will break down the results of the final two weeks of the regular season for the power conferences, looking for spots in which we may be able to profit in 2025. In most of the last six or seven years I have published this analysis, the same names seem to have arisen as the teams to back at this time of year. Teams like Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, UConn, etc. On the other side of the coin, programs like Georgetown, DePaul, Pittsburgh, Georgia, and even Alabama have continued to flounder in the late season.

Besides the top and bottom teams lists, you’ll see that there are some very definitive angles for each P5 league that you’re going to be inclined to put to use over the next couple of weeks, primarily as they pertain to home-court advantage, pace of play, and recent results between teams in a matchup.

For the record, the results shown cover games dating back to 2018, or the last seven seasons. The time period of the final two weeks of this year’s regular season would include games between Monday, February 24th, and Sunday, March 9th, so readers will again have 14 full days to take advantage of the findings.

It is important to consider two general handicapping concepts for any game you will play for the duration of the two weeks. For one, home-court advantage in the final two regular-season weeks has meant a little more than at any other point in the season. Specifically, over the last seven years, home teams in the Power 5 conferences are 647-370 SU and 535-460 ATS for 53.8% in the final two weeks of the regular season. However, this has dropped in each of the last two years. It has been a long-term profit-making strategy. The other concept is that late-season games in the power leagues have leaned Over on totals, 548-458 (54.5%) over the last seven years and 262-183 (58.9%) over the last three seasons.

If you’re looking to up that ATS percentage a little more, consider the aspect of revenge. Power conference teams looking to avenge an earlier season loss and playing as home favorites of 6 points or more in the last two weeks of the regular season have gone 90-10 SU and 60-34 ATS (63.8%) since 2018. This situation will come up at various points the rest of the way, so keep it at the forefront of your handicapping.

Top Teams
Not counting Houston (4-0 SU and 1-3 ATS last year) and BYU (3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS last year) in their only Big 12 seasons of 2024, there have been seven Power 5 conference teams that have won 70% or more of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. Only one has a losing ATS mark, and they have combined to go 93-75 against the spread (55.4%) as well:

CONNECTICUT: 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 21-5 SU and 14-11 ATS
VIRGINIA: 19-6 SU and 13-12 ATS
OREGON: 21-7 SU and 16-12 ATS
TENNESSEE: 20-7 SU and 15-11 ATS
KENTUCKY: 20-7 SU and 14-13 ATS
PURDUE: 17-6 SU BUT 10-13 ATS

By no coincidence, six of these programs (UNC excluded) has had the same coach for the duration of the study. This makes backing these teams late in the season a fundamentally sound strategy. However, remember that Virginia and Kentucky have changed coaches this season.

Also of interest, there are no Big 12 schools that met the qualifications this year.

Again, excluding one-year Big 12 schools BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF, there have been eight different teams that have gone 60% or better ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years:

GEORGIA TECH: 18-9 SU and 24-3 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS
TEXAS A&M: 16-10 SU and 17-8 ATS
CREIGHTON: 16-9 SU and 15-9 ATS
OKLAHOMA ST: 15-14 SU and 18-11 ATS
ARKANSAS: 16-12 SU and 17-11 ATS
MICHIGAN: 15-13 SU and 17-11 ATS
SOUTH CAROLINA: 13-15 SU and 17-11 ATS

The rest of the 2025 season will be a real test for three teams in particular on this list, as Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and South Carolina are all under-.500 as we head down the stretch.

Bottom Teams
There have been eight Power 5 conference teams that have won 30% or less of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, and their combined ATS record is an ugly 83-123 (40.3%):

GEORGETOWN: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS
GEORGIA: 5-22 SU and 11-16 ATS
LOUISVILLE: 5-20 SU and 10-15 ATS
MINNESOTA: 6-22 SU and 10-17 ATS
DEPAUL: 7-20 SU and 11-16 ATS
CALIFORNIA: 6-17 SU and 10-13 ATS
IOWA STATE: 8-21 SU and 9-18 ATS
PITTSBURGH: 7-17 SU and 11-12 ATS

Interestingly, for 2025, Iowa State and Louisville are enjoying fantastic seasons. Can they shake off past late-season struggles and finish strong?

There have been eight teams that have gone 38% or worse ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years:

ALABAMA: 12-16 SU and 7-21 ATS
IOWA STATE: 8-21 SU and 9-18 ATS
WAKE FOREST: 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS
MISSISSIPPI ST: 12-16 SU and 9-17 ATS
XAVIER: 14-12 SU and 9-17 ATS
MINNESOTA: 6-22 SU and 10-17 ATS
SYRACUSE: 10-18 SU and 10-17 ATS
KANSAS: 18-9 SU and 10-16 ATS

This is an eye-opening list in that every single one of these teams besides Syracuse could be headed towards a postseason tournament of some sort and figures to be continuing the fight for better seeding in their remaining regular season games. Will things turn around for them in 2025? Recent history doesn’t suggest it.

Best Home Teams
Again, discounting the one-year teams out of the Big 12, there have been six teams that have gone 90% or better outright at home in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, and two teams that have gone undefeated at home in that span. These teams have combined to go a remarkable 51-18 against the spread (73.9%) as hosts:

MICHIGAN ST: 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS
KANSAS: 13-1 SU and 7-7 ATS
LSU: 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS
FLORIDA ST: 11-1 SU and 7-3 ATS
GEORGIA TECH: 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS

If you’re plotting ahead, note that Michigan State has two HUGE home games left the next two Sundays, 3/2 versus Wisconsin and 3/9 versus Michigan. UConn has three of its final four regular-season games at home. Regardless of the status of the teams for 2025, is it worth going against these numbers?

Worst Home Teams
Most of the teams on the “Bottom” list above have enjoyed little to no home-court advantage late in the season. Here are the eight Power 5 conference teams that have won 38% or fewer of their home games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. Their combined ATS record is a miserable 45-61 (42.4%).

GEORGETOWN: 3-12 SU and 7-8 ATS
GEORGIA: 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS
LOUISVILLE: 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS
BOSTON COLLEGE: 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS
IOWA ST: 5-9 SU and 3-10 ATS
OLE MISS: 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS
VANDERBILT: 5-9 SU and 6-7 ATS
MINNESOTA: 5-8 SU and 6-6 ATS

When you consider the 2025 prospects for the teams on the “worst home” list, there are some quality programs. Louisville, Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt all need key wins down the stretch.

Best Road Teams
Ability to win on the road late in the season is typically a strong trait for the best teams across all sports. Same goes for college basketball. Here are the seven power conference teams to win at least 60% of their road games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018:

CONNECTICUT: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS
N CAROLINA: 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS
VIRGINIA: 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS
KENTUCKY: 9-4 SU and 9-4 ATS
TENNESSEE: 9-5 SU and 6-7 ATS
TEXAS A&M: 8-5 SU and 9-3 ATS
PURDUE: 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS

There are some huge names and highly successful programs overall on this list. That is no coincidence. It will be interesting to see if the massive changeover at Virginia this season impacts that program’s status in this exclusive group.

Worst Road Teams
There have been 13 teams that have won less than 20% of their road games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. That is an ugly number. The combined ATS record of these teams is arguably worse, 51-107 (32.3%)! There is no reason to discontinue fading these teams on the road in 2025.

UTAH: 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS
MINNESOTA: 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS
DEPAUL: 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS
GEORGIA: 1-11 SU and 5-7 ATS
CALIFORNIA: 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS
PITTSBURGH: 1-11 SU and 5-6 ATS
WAKE FOREST: 1-11 SU and 1-11 ATS
LOUISVILLE: 2-13 SU and 6-9 ATS
NOTRE DAME: 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS
KANSAS STATE: 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS
STANFORD: 2-10 SU and 6-6 ATS
MARYLAND: 2-9 SU and 2-8 ATS

This list has notable teams like Wake Forest, Louisville, Kansas State, and Maryland on it for 2025, all teams fighting for postseason positioning. I’ve shared evidence already of how much home-court advantage means in late-season power conference games. It means even more when facing the teams on this fade list.

Best Revenge Teams
An angle that produces some definitive results is that of revenge, or when a team lost the initial game versus a conference opponent earlier in the season and how they responded. The following is a list of the teams that performed best in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 when playing with revenge motivation:

FLORIDA STATE: 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS
MICHIGAN STATE: 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS
TENNESSEE: 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS
VILLANOVA: 6-1 SU and ATS
CONNECTICUT: 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS
KENTUCKY: 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS
KANSAS: 9-2 SU and 8-2 ATS
OREGON: 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 4-1 SU and ATS
AUBURN: 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS
NORTHWESTERN: 6-2 SU and ATS

Villanova has a revenge spot versus Butler still to come, and UConn will close its regular with a potential payback matchup from a shocking upset loss to Seton Hall.

Worst Revenge Teams
Alternatively, revenge hasn’t proven to be a good motivating factor for these teams:

ALABAMA: 0-3 SU and ATS
ARIZONA: 0-5 SU and ATS
LOUISVILLE: 0-10 SU and 4-6 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 2-18 SU and 8-12 ATS
MARYLAND: 1-7 SU and ATS
NC STATE: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS
GEORGIA: 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS
PITTSBURGH: 1-5 SU and 2-3 ATS
DEPAUL: 4-16 SU and 8-12 ATS

There are some wild records on this list, and unfortunately, with conference sizes growing to the point where a lot of teams only face each other once now in a regular season, revenge spots like this are becoming more and more rare. That said, three of Georgetown’s four remaining tilts are revenge spots from earlier this season.

On Totals – OVER and UNDER Teams
There have been eight Power 5 conference teams that have gone Over the total in 65% of their games or more in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years:

WEST VIRGINIA: 21-7 OVER the total
ARKANSAS: 20-8 OVER the total
MINNESOTA: 18-8 OVER the total
WASHINGTON ST: 16-8 OVER the total
SOUTH CAROLINA: 18-9 OVER the total
NEBRASKA: 19-10 OVER the total
UCLA: 17-9 OVER the total
GEORGIA TECH: 17-9 OVER the total

There have only been four teams that have gone Under the total in 62% of their games or more in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:

VIRGINIA TECH: 17-8 UNDER the total
CLEMSON: 18-10 UNDER the total
BUTLER: 14-8 UNDER the total
TENNESSEE: 16-10 UNDER the total

The sheer volume of teams going Overat a high clip as compared to Under should lead you to some answers on which way on a total to side when nothing else is considered.

Home Court Advantage andTotals Results by Conference
Interestingly, all of the Power 5 conferences show results indicating that home-court advantage is quite important in the latter part of the season. In fact, over the last seven years, all but the SEC conference have shown home teams being profitable, going 53.4% or better ATS, with the SEC checking in a lot less at 47.4%. Since I came out with this article for the first time seven years ago, I have suggested that, in the absence of any other key information, simply betting the home teams and Over on totals in these games would have been a sound strategy. Here are final two weeks’ home  and totals records for each conference in order of ATS success over the last seven seasons:

ACC: 130-66 SU and 110-81 ATS (57.6%), OVER 99-94 (51.3%)
Big 12: 99-52 SU and 78-68 ATS (53.4%), OVER 82-67 (55%)
Big East: 83-50 SU and 76-55 ATS (58%), OVER 69-62 (52.7%)
Big Ten: 124-70 SU and 104-86 ATS (54.7%), OVER 106-86 (55.2%)
SEC: 117-76 SU and 90-100 ATS (47.4%), OVER 108-84 (56.3%)

Trends by Line Range
Some trends have developed in the various conferences specific to line range. Take a look.

* There has been a definitive line point in ACC home favorite betting, and that has been 10 points. ACC home teams in the -1 to -10 range are on a 73-19 SU and 59-30-3 ATS (66.3%) run, a sign that home-court advantage can be the deciding factor in expectedly tighter games. At the same time, ACC hosts favored by more than 10-points have gone 27-5 SU but 13-18-1 ATS (41.9%), while those playing as home underdogs are just 8-13 ATS (38.1%) in their last 21 tries.

* There are some very interesting trends in Big East games, with lofty totals of 150 or higher posted since 2018. In these games in the last two weeks of the regular season, hosts are 34-14 SU and 33-15 ATS (68.8%), while totals are 30-18 Over (62.5%).

* Home teams in the -2.5 to +2.5 line range have proven far from trustworthy in the Big 12 last two weeks’ games of recent years. In fact, they are just 10-18 SU and ATS (35.7%) in their last 28 tries. The best line range to play Big 12 home favorites has been in the -3 to -10.5 range as they are 45-14 SU and 31-24-4 ATS (56.4%).

* Larger Big 12 home underdogs in late-season games have thrived, going 14-16 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 as dogs of 3-points or more.

* Contrary to popular belief, laying a lot of points with hosts in the Big Ten has been a rewarding strategy, as those favored by double-digits are on a 27-4 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) run since 2018.

* Big Ten home underdogs of more than 3 points have been very dangerous, going 15-16 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%) since 2018.

* SEC home teams have really dragged the numbers down overall for the Power 5 collective in recent years, going just 32-52 ATS (38.1%) over the last three seasons. Of note, Over the total is 57-26 (68.7%) in the SEC in that time frame.

* Small SEC home dogs have really struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, as those at +4.5 points or less are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS (24.1%) since 2018.

* Lofty totaled SEC games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 have been explosive, as games with totals of 150 or higher have gone 32-16 OVER (66.7%), producing 162.1 PPG on totals averaging 157.4.

Using this information against the rest of the 2025 regular season schedules for all the power conference teams should continue to reap big rewards.

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