College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets from Matt Youmans:
At this time a year ago, absolutely no one was talking about North Carolina State, which finished the college basketball regular season on a four-game losing streak. However, Kevin Keatts coached the Wolfpack to five wins in five days — upsetting Duke and North Carolina — to win the ACC tournament and reach the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed.
Some will say Championship Week, with all of the major conference tournaments in action, is the best week of the year for college basketball betting. Next week, we get to bet the field of 68, and nothing is more dramatic and hyped than the NCAA tournament. But this week features more games from early morning to late night, and it’s simply great.
The conference tournaments can be complex to handicap. The teams converge on neutral courts and show up with different levels of motivation. Is it imperative for regular-season champs Auburn (SEC), Duke (ACC), Houston (Big 12), Michigan State (Big Ten) and St. John’s (Big East) to win tournament titles this week? No. It’s probably beneficial for those five teams to lose and get rest for the NCAA tournament.
The lesson: Beware of the ‘dogs. The teams with the most to play for are those that had disappointing regular seasons and get another shot at a conference championship. The underdogs are desperate and hungry. Some of the favorites are fat and happy. This is a bad time to be parlaying favorites.
North Carolina State pulled off a series of surprises to win last year’s ACC tournament before stunningly advancing to the NCAA Final Four, the first for the Wolfpack since the miracle title run by Jim Valvano in 1983. The Wolfpack failed to qualify for this week’s conference tournament, and Keatts was fired Sunday, so that Cinderella story is history. I’ll take a shot at breaking down seven of this week’s conference tournament brackets and offer best bets (using odds from Circa Sports, DraftKings and the Westgate SuperBook):
ACC
Top-seeded Duke deserves to be a big odds-on favorite (-400) in Charlotte, N.C., after following freshman phenom Cooper Flagg to a 19-1 league record. The Blue Devils should coast in their first two games and reach the championship against either Louisville or Clemson. This tournament is not going to produce Cinderella, and my choice comes down to either Louisville (+550) or Clemson, with each finishing 18-2 in ACC play. The Cardinals, fueled by Wisconsin transfer point guard Chucky Hepburn, roll in on a nine-game win streak, but they have not defeated a ranked opponent since November. The Tigers, who upset Duke 77-71 on Feb. 8, reached the Elite Eight last year and have experienced leaders in guard Chase Hunter and forward Ian Schieffelin. It’s doubtful Duke will come up short, but I’m not laying the high price and will instead take the longer odds with the league’s second-best team.
Best Bet: Clemson (+700)
Big East
Rick Pitino is painting a masterpiece. St. John’s is 27-4, with the losses by a total of seven points. I liked the roster Pitino was putting together last spring and played the Red Storm at 80-1 odds to win the NCAA title, a bet that has a legit shot. St. John’s wins with defense, rebounding and toughness. The defense ranks No. 3 by Kenpom.com, behind only Tennessee and Houston. The Red Storm’s one weakness is 3-point shooting (29.9 percent), and that could ultimately be the team’s downfall. While a strong case can be made for Creighton (+400) in this tournament, I expect a third meeting between Connecticut and St. John’s (+150). UConn coach Dan Hurley is not getting his NCAA title three-peat, and he’ll try to avoid a three-game sweep against Pitino. The Huskies have the talent, size and shooters (35.3 percent from 3) — Solo Ball, Alex Karaban, Liam McNeeley, Tarris Reed Jr. and Samson Johnson — to match up with the Red Storm. UConn needs to get past Villanova and Creighton to reach the conference title game at Madison Square Garden. It’s March, so I’m betting on Hurley.
Best Bet: UConn (+450)
Big 12
This might be the toughest conference tournament to predict. The easy way out would be to pick Houston (-105), which went 19-1 in Big 12 play, but I’m not playing the favorites this week. The Cougars will have to deal with either Brigham Young (14-1) or Iowa State (+650) in the top half of the bracket in Kansas City. The other half of the bracket features No. 2-seeded Texas Tech and No. 3 Arizona. The Red Raiders handed Houston its only league loss, 82-81 in overtime on Feb. 1. Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland’s team, ranked No. 7 by Kenpom, shoots 3s at 37.8 percent and rates top 30 in defense.
Best Bet: Texas Tech (+425)
Big Ten
Michigan State is nearly a mirror image of St. John’s — both teams win with defense, rebounding and toughness, and the Spartans use all of that to overcome poor 3-point shooting (30.2 percent). Tom Izzo and Pitino are similar coaches in many ways, and both are probably better off losing this week and getting rest for the NCAA tournament. As UCLA coach Mick Cronin said Saturday, his program doesn’t hang banners for conference tournament titles. The Spartans (+250) are in a half of the bracket with Indiana, Oregon, UCLA and Wisconsin. Sixth-seeded Purdue, which led the Big Ten race at 11-2 in early February, gets a great draw in the bottom half of the bracket and will be motivated to win in Indianapolis. The Boilermakers, who shoot 3s at 38.6 percent, boast an elite point guard-big man duo in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Purdue and Maryland (+450) are my top options.
Best Bet: Purdue (+650)
SEC
Auburn won the conference tournament last year and then got bounced by Yale in the NCAA first round. Based on quality wins and strength of schedule, Johni Broome and the Tigers should be the NCAA’s No. 1 overall seed whether they win or lose this week in Nashville. Tennessee (+600) is in the top half of the bracket with Auburn (+150). Florida and Alabama (+425) headline the bottom half. I would not rule out a long-shot team such as Mississippi (65-1) making a run, but I’ll go with an elite team in the toughest conference tournament field we have seen in a long time. The Gators are 9-1 in their last 10 games, including road victories over the Crimson Tide and Tigers. Florida is in the best current form and has the nation’s most complete team with guards Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard and forward Alex Condon.
Best Bet: Florida (+300)
Mountain West
Richard Pitino lost three stars from last year’s team and rebuilt the Lobos into regular-season champs with a 25-6 record. Junior point guard Donovan Dent (20.4 ppg) is the Mountain West’s best player, and 6’10” Nelly Junior Joseph is a dominant big man who averages a double-double. The Lobos went 5-3 against teams in the top half of the bracket (losing once to Boise State, San Diego State and San Jose State) and 12-0 versus the bottom half of the bracket. All three of New Mexico’s losses in league play came on the road. It’s tempting to take a shot with the Aztecs to take down the Lobos (+250) at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, and I’ll also look at a hotter team in the other half of the bracket. Colorado State has won seven straight behind senior guard Nique Clifford. The Rams were swept by New Mexico but went 16-2 against the rest of the league.
Best Bets: Colorado State (+450) and San Diego State (+700) half-unit each
Big West
Long Beach State pulled off a stunner to win this tournament in Henderson, Nevada, a year ago. It should be a two-horse race this time. The Big West is unlikely to get two NCAA bids, so UC San Diego (28-4, 18-2) needs to close the deal as the favorite. UC Irvine (27-5, 17-3) will make this interesting as the second choice at +170, which is the value play. The Anteaters got hot last week, averaging 92.5 points in two road wins. I’m rooting for the Tritons and Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, a senior guard from New Zealand, so I’ll play one favorite. UCSD, which routed Irvine 85-67 on the road in early February, is ranked No. 39 by Kenpom and deserves a spot in the field of 68.
Best Bet: UC San Diego (-160)
