We have arrived at Selection Sunday 2026! Before we get to hear the announcement of this year’s NCAA Tournament brackets, however, there are five conference tourney titles left to be decided on Sunday, with a few teams looking to steal bids for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at those five games and the historical trends in play for them. Be sure to stay tuned for the next few weeks, as I will be giving similar updates for each round of the NCAA’s, focusing on round-by-round, seed number, and conference angles all tournament long!

Let’s get started by reviewing the basic conference tournament systems I offered up over the last couple of weeks. Only one of them is in play today: 

1) Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU & 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: Vanderbilt 

Here are the trends in play for each conference. Note that all trend records were as of heading into the 2026 games and don’t include any earlier results from this week:

Power Five Conferences

BIG TEN

·  Heavy favorites of -6.5 points or more are on a 23-1 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) run in the Big Ten tournament.
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: Michigan

· Big Ten tourney conference title game favorites are currently on a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS (25%) skid, including Wisconsin’s (-4.5) 59-53 loss to Michigan in ’25.
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: AGAINST Michigan

SEC

·  Of the last 31 SEC tourney games expected to be highly competitive (favorites of -3 or less), 19 have gone Over the total (61.3%).
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: OVER the total in Vanderbilt-Arkansas

·  SEC title game favorites are on an 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) run since ’15.
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: Vanderbilt

Mid-Major Conferences

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

·  In the 10-year history of the AAC tourney, Under the total is 7-3-1 (70%) in the championship game. Favorites are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS (72.7%) in those contests, allowing just 61.5 PPG.
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: South Florida & UNDER the total in Wichita State-South Florida

·  It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 150 or more in the tourney have gone 6-2 Under (72.7%) since ’16.
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: UNDER the total in Wichita State-South Florida

ATLANTIC 10

NO HISTORICAL CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT ANGLES APPLY TODAY FOR DAYTON-VCU

IVY LEAGUE

·  The previous seven Ivy League tourneys have shown a distinct pattern regarding rounds and totals. Championship games are 5-2 Over the total (71.4%), while semifinal games are 9-5 Under the total (64.3%).
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: OVER the total in PENN-YALE

·  Ivy League tourney favorites of 4 points or more have gone 12-1 outright (7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%).
Qualifying plays for Sunday 3/15: Yale

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