College Basketball DraftKings Betting Splits Systems Update:

With the Super Bowl coming on Sunday, there are masses of bettors that are going to start turning their full-time attention to basketball, and in particular, looking forward to the month of March and the NCAA tournament. As I’ve done for almost all of the other major sports we cover at VSiN, I’m here now to take a closer look at the Betting Splits that we have received from DK in the 2024-25 CBB season and how bettors are faring on them.

To summarize the findings from the CBB 2024-25 season with games through Wednesday, 2/5, the sample contained 3,836 games, and for the most part, majority bettors are losing in a slow and steady fashion, on all six metrics I track. These were the results:

 

***Top College Basketball Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

– Majority handle on point spreads: 1801-1889 ATS (48.8%), -276.9 units – ROI: -7.5%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 1805-1885 ATS (48.9%), -268.5 units – ROI: -7.3%
– Majority handle on money lines: 2619-1190 (68.8%). -221.21 units – ROI: -5.8%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 2708-1106 (71%). -205.15 units – ROI: -5.4%
– Majority handle on totals: 1877-1882 (49.9%). -193.2 units – ROI: -5.1%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1824-1897 (49%), -262.7 units – ROI: -7.1% 

If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 3,836 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, and there were several ATS/totals ties already in the season.

The numbers are remarkably consistent across the board. Unlike the NBA, which I studied just a couple of weeks ago, there are no overall success areas in which bettors have fared well. 

In general, when looking at the data samples, the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp,” while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input. For this exercise, it hasn’t mattered.

VSiN touts the Betting Splits Data from DraftKings and Circa often, and righteously so, as we believe these to be fantastic resources for bettors. On these VSiN.com pages, we have built remarkably useable data charts detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day. My common belief is that the “betting public,” especially at a heavy recreational source like DraftKings, does not win over the long haul. It remains to be seen how the numbers break down from Circa, as it is commonly believed that more sharp players place their action there. However, when it comes to DK, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of. 

Whenever I write these Betting Splits articles, I like to remind readers that the two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering. According to the ticket/handle so far this NBA season, majority wagers were on favorites in at least 74.1% of the games and on Overs for totals in 66.3%. 

With the aforementioned results in mind, here are some college basketball systems and records that have developed in the 2024-25 season with games through Wednesday, 2/5.

DK CBB Betting Splits system #1: DK bettors have been particularly bad on Thursdays this season, losing big on all for side majorities:

– Thursday majority handle on point spreads: 199-233 ATS (46.1%), -57.3 units – ROI: -13.3%
– Thursday majority number of bets on point spreads: 202-228 ATS (47%), -48.8 units – ROI: -11.3%
– Thursday majority handle on money lines: 276-168 (62.2%). -127.58 units – ROI: -28.7%
– Thursday majority number of bets on money lines: 285-159 (64.2%). -115.15 units – ROI: -25.9%

All these numbers are well below the overall standards set. This may seem random, but typically, much of the Thursday lineup involves West Coast teams and conferences, and perhaps even more mid-majors, which the public bettors may know less about. This could be an area to watch more closely (and fade) as the season winds down. If you’re wondering, the day of the week in which bettors have fared best has been Sundays, but nowhere near the definitive level of their Thursday struggles. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #2: DraftKings majority bettors have been far worse on ATS sides but far better on totals since the turn of the calendar to January. Here are the numbers:

– November-December majority handle on point spreads: 1,020-1,025 ATS (49.9%), -107.5 units – ROI: -5.3%
– Since January 1st, majority handle on point spreads: 781-864 ATS (47.5%), -169.4 units – ROI: -10.3%
– November-December majority number of bets on totals: 985-1070 ATS (47.9%), -192 units – ROI: -9.3%
– Since January 1st, majority number of bets on totals: 839-827 ATS (50.4%), -70.7 units – ROI: -4.2%

The numbers for majority number of bets on sides and majority handle on totals are very similar to these. These spreads are around 5% in both cases. That margin can make the difference in profiting or not. Again, this could seem random when judged simply by the turning of a calendar, but when you look at it from the perspective that January is when most conference schedules kick in full-time, you’ll find a lot more substance to the findings. Remember, most bettors prefer favorites and Overs. How does this equate to what we’ve seen in conference play so far? If this doesn’t change much, go forward with the strategy of fading the majority public on sides and backing them on totals the rest of the way. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there has been a majority handle backing a neutral underdog of more than 7 points on the point spread in college basketball this season, that group produced a 33-21 ATS record (61.1%) for +9.9 units and a ROI of +18.3%. Perhaps we’ll be able to benefit from this again when the conference and postseason tournaments begin next month. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a double-digit road underdog so far this season, that group has produced a profit in a 138-125 ATS (52.5%) performance, good for +0.5 units. This lot of 263 games was only around 7% of the total sample size. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #5: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number for home teams this season in college basketball, with handle groups of that magnitude struggling to a 664-740 ATS record, good for 47.3%. This has produced a loss of -174 units and an ROI of -12.4%, well below the overall majority figures. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #6: Money line majorities on large road favorites (more than 5 points on line) have fared very well this season in college basketball. These majority handle groups are 263-54 SU for +62.45 units, an ROI of +19.7%. This is a dangerous angle, however, as typically, these groups can fall hard with just one or two unexpected losses, so tread carefully if you choose to follow.

DK CBB Betting Splits system #7: Money line majorities on small neutral court underdogs (+6.5 on point spread or less) have also fared well this season in college hoops. These majority handle groups are 76-42 SU for +14.03 units, an ROI of +11.9%. This is another angle we will have to wait to back until conference and postseason tournament time. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #8: In college basketball games with “low” totals, or those less than 130, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 86-58 (59.7%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 88-56 (61.1%). Both groups have proven incredibly profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.

DK CBB Betting Splits system #9: When a super majority (>60%) of handle bettors were backing the Under in a CBB game this season, that group has gone just 371-419 (47%), for a loss of -89.9 units and ROI of -11.4%. These are unusual results when you consider the findings on similar data in other sports, where under majorities tend to fare well. 

DK CBB Betting Splits system #10: Similar to #9 above, when a super majority (>=54%) of number of bets groups were backing the Under in a CBB game this season, that has gone just 412-471 (46.7%), for a loss of -106.1 units and ROI of -12%. Be aware of when too many bettors are expecting Unders in games, as they have lost big this year.

The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. 

The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and now Circa as well, is updated every five minutes. 

Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, total result, and season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.

Previous articleGulfstream Picks for Saturday, February 8
Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR