Finding value in the college basketball futures market:


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The college football and NFL seasons will soon be ending. When that happens, college basketball will become a dominant part of the sports betting landscape. That means your time to hit the CBB futures market before the public stomps around on it is soon coming to an end. 

 

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When it comes to the CBB futures market, don’t just be fixated on the predictions of which one team will capture the national championship. Look now at the 32 different Division 1 conferences, where plenty of plus numbers are still available for those willing to divert some attention and financial capital away from football.  

The Final Four market, which surprisingly isn’t universally offered, is another option. 

Here is a look at some of the conference outright markets with value in mind. 

ACC

Just a few games into the conference schedule, Duke (-500) has emerged as the prohibitive favorite. That is good news for those who backed this freshman-centric squad early. 

The Blue Devils aren’t just winning ACC games, they are dominating with an average winning differential of 23.2 points. No matter what the odds are for the likes of Clemson (+950) or North Carolina (+1400), the value for bettors resides with another wager elsewhere.  

American Athletic Conference 

Another massive favorite is Memphis (-400) this early into the conference schedule. 

This year’s new-look Tigers, a statement that has become redundant with Anfernee Hardaway leading the program, showed early on they could compete with any program (beating UConn, Michigan State and Clemson). Mid-December was the last time a plus number for Memphis was available. 

See the example of Memphis as a reason to track college basketball futures even with so much football action on the betting board.

After beating North Texas 68-64 in a tight home contest on January 5th, it appears Memphis should sail easily through the rest of the AAC according to KenPom’s matchups.

Sticking with a KenPom perspective, the Tigers are hovering around the Top 30 in both adjusted offense and defense, a key indicator for March success.

Here is a possible futures play: Memphis 18-1 to reach the Final Four. Joe Lunardi has the Tigers right now as a projected 5th seed, and if they do run the AAC table, that could move them to the fourth line. 

If that happens, or even as a fifth seed, a Final Four ticket has a better chance of being monetized for Memphis that has a ceiling with Hardaway as a coach than a 75-1 national championship one. 

Big East 

The high ankle sprain suffered by Connecticut’s Liam McNeeley has directly affected the odds on this board, especially after Dan Hurley said the star freshman will be out of action for weeks. 

Even when McNeeley was healthy, and the Huskies started showing signs of life following their unsuccessful trip to Maui, Marquette was gaining attention in the Big East market. 

Now it’s the Golden Eagles (+100) as the favorite, leaping over UConn now at +210. 

St. John’s comes in at +384, basically making this a three-team showdown with the rest of the Big East further back in both power rankings and odds. 

Even with a hobbled UConn and Marquette featuring one of the top players in the country in Kam Jones and the versatile Stevie Mitchell, there is no value on Marquette at this junction for just even money. It took a late-game rally for them to get past Georgetown last night. 

The Red Storm have a star of their own in RJ Luis Jr. (16.5 ppg) and offer higher odds than the other two.  That doesn’t necessarily translate into value, though. 

Bettors should take note of Rick Pitino’s public criticism of his team’s maturity. His post-game comments don’t just sound like a coach trying to motivate a team through the media. Rather, it appears more like a 72-year-old legend frustrated with a squad unable to play the demanding style that was so successful in the past. 

Big East bettors should stick to game-by-game wagers rather than dip into the futures market at this juncture.

Big 12 and SEC  

These two power conferences are both filled with Wooden Award candidates and teams with expectations of long March runs.  All that depth means there isn’t much value on either conference outrights. In the Big 12, Houston (+120) and Iowa State (+155) have separated from a deep pack (Arizona +1000, Kansas +1100), but at those thin odds, it is hard to pick what will be the right side of a coin flip over the next month and a half. 

Be advised about jumping on Kansas at this number because the Jayhawks would need to surpass a team such as Texas Tech (14-1) in the next tier of Big 12 contenders for a regular season title. 

A similar story over at the SEC with its 16 programs creating so much consolidation in its outright market. 

Auburn (-105), Tennessee (+500), Alabama (+550) and Florida (+650) lead a pack of elite squads just above the next group of close-to-elite squads Texas A&M (+1700), Mississippi State (+2000) and Kentucky (+2000). The issue with betting on a team now is there are literally no guaranteed wins in this conference.

Just look at how the Gators mauled the No.1 Volunteers, who entered the game undefeated and left with a 73-43 loss. Tennessee was the top-ranked team in the country and is still an underdog in Gainesville. 

Bettors should focus on March instead for any of the elite programs in these two conferences. 

There is still value on Iowa State (12-1) to win it all. Lunardi has the Cyclones pegged as a No.1 seed and a Top 10 KenPom team for both offensive and defensive efficiency.  TJ Otzelberger’s squad in the last couple of tournaments was a popular choice for those looking for teams just outside the top tier of favorites. 

Ultimately, a lack of scoring kept them from the Final Four in the past. This year’s team may have solved that problem with the emergence of Keshon Gilbert (16 ppg). 

Now would be one of the last times to get an Iowa State national championship ticket since its odds could get closer to single digits with big games at Texas Tech (January 11th) and home against Kansas (January 15th) on the horizon. 

Big Ten 

Unlike the other mega conferences, there is value here in the outright market because of the extra meat on the odds bone. 

Michigan (+280) is one of the current favorites alongside Illinois (+370), Michigan State (+400) and Purdue (+650). The Wolverines and Spartans have yet to lose a Big Ten game. 

Brad Underwood’s squad, with one overtime loss in Evanston, provides some value on this board based on a point we made previously in the VSiN betting guide. The extended Big Ten travel will soon impact the grueling conference play. 

Illinois already made its trek to the land of the former Pac-12 and left undefeated. Now, the travel is in the Illini’s favor. Their trip to New Jersey to play Rutgers comes midweek in early February after they host Ohio State three days prior.  

The 6-6 Kasparas Jakucionis may give Illinois the best player in the conference. He is averaging 16 points per game, with his top performances coming against Wisconsin, Tennessee and Missouri. 

Michigan just finished its USC and UCLA swing (undefeated); Michigan State heads to SoCal in early February; Purdue goes to Washington and Oregon in mid-January to then host Ohio State three days later; and Indiana goes to the Pacific Northwest at the end of a long conference haul.

Analytics also favor Illinois. In particular, KenPom and Torvik have them as the top Big Ten team, with Haslam ranking it just behind Maryland as the eighth best team in the country. 

I currently hold tickets on Illinois to win the Big Ten and make the Final Four (+950). As good as Michigan has looked to start the season, the Wolverines may have a tougher two final weeks of the season compared to the Illini. 

Conference USA 

Even with a minus number next to its name, there is presently value on Liberty at -130. The Flames grade out considerably higher than any other CUSA squad. The value lies in the fact Liberty slipped earlier in the season against Western Kentucky in a 71-70 loss, and there are three undefeated teams in the conference (UTEP, New Mexico St., Kennesaw State). 

The Flames will soon get a crack at those teams. When that happens, this number could jump up to well past -300. 

Here is a proposed way to use Liberty and its -130 odds: create a parlay tied to another team with similar odds to create a plus odds ticket. 

Do you like Ohio State to win the football championship? If so, think about combining the Buckeyes with Liberty to win CUSA in a parlay that pays around +200.

MAAC

This should remain a 3-team race throughout conference play since the MAAC’s format of Friday/Sunday games often leads to a number of upsets. 

The top trio are Quinnipiac at +185 (a play I made in the preseason), Marist (+240) and Merrimack. There is a wide gap between this group and Mount St. Mary’s who clocks in next at 14-1. 

From a value perspective, look at the Red Foxes, who already have a win against the Bobcats in the only game between these two teams.  Marist is also about to enter a soft part of their conference schedule that should keep them atop the standings when the Red Foxes travel to Merrimack on February 16th. 

Remember, small conference futures pay out just the same way as they do in the Power Four. 

Mountain West 

Once again, this conference is deep, and four different teams could easily capture a regular season title. Right now, Utah State and its new head coach, Jerrod Calhoun, sit comfortably atop the odds board with a minus number at all shops (-115 at DraftKings). Such is the case for a 5-0 team; however, New Mexico is also 5-0 in conference play yet comes with a readily available +330 (DraftKings) price tag.

Look at the Lobos here for a strong value play. Utah State’s odds are based on their early season impressive road wins at San Diego State and Nevada. The key here is the early season aspect, and we have seen over the past decade how much turnover can happen in the MWC standings after these teams continually beat each other up.

Some of these teams are going to stumble in their trips to Laramie, San Jose or Fresno.  

So far, Utah State has received most of the media attention. That created a noticeable shift in its directions odds-wise. Soon, more people will be looking at and betting college basketball. When that happens, New Mexico will enter the chat. 

Besides their fast pace on offense and the strong home court advantage The Pit provides, the Lobos feature one of the best scorers in the conference in Donovan Dent (19.1 ppg) and a strong frontcourt of Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 ppg & 10 rpg) and Mustapha Amzil (14.7 ppg & 6.1 rpg).

UNM’s recent win at Wyoming was a good indication of what this offense can do. They came out sluggish and trailed the Cowboys by 14 points at the end of the first. During the second 20 minutes, they ran as expected and still covered a 7.5 spread on the road. 

The 3-1 on the Lobos has some room for monetization late in the season if needed. The MWC standings will be significantly impacted by the Lobos’ 3-game stretch hosting Utah State on February 16th, then going to Boise State (February 19th) and San Diego State (February 25th). It is hard to think the Aggies will still be undefeated by then, so a ticket on them, the Broncos or Aztecs could also be purchased for some protection. 

Patriot League 

Here is a conference outright longshot to consider – Bucknell at +900. Colgate is the program bettors most associate with this conference since the Raiders have won the past five Patriot League tournaments.

That brand name bias is impacting the odds board because this version of Colgate is not as good as the previous ones. First off, Colgate doesn’t have the offensive firepower from the recent past and shouldn’t be an odds-on favorite. Most importantly, Bucknell already beat the Raiders earlier this season.

KenPom’s future predictions have Colgate with six conference losses coming up to Bucknell’s five.  KenPom has Bucknell ranked 251st in the country, tops in the Patriot League.

Torvik’s numbers lean towards American (+1400), also a good value option. Either Bucknell or American are shrewd value-based plays. Colgate, operating with a recognizable name in an obscure conference that few people pay attention to, is priced incorrectly. 

This is sometimes a difficult board to wager on, but bet365 posts it on a daily basis. 

Looking back at the future

I checked in with some of the handicappers mentioned in VSiN’s 2024-25 College Basketball Betting Guide to see what futures they identified back in late October they currently feel most confident about, along with the ones that have gone as planned. 

Zach Cohen 

Feel best about:

Iowa State To Win National Title: When we wrote up the CBB guide, Iowa State was 30-1 to win the national title at DraftKings. The Cyclones are down to 12-1 now. Of course, winning the NCAA Tournament is very difficult, and it requires all sorts of luck. However, I feel great about the number I have on an elite team. In the guide, I noted that Iowa State was elite defensively last season, but I was expecting a leap offensively with most of the core returning. Well, the Cyclones are Top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. This team has as good a shot as anyone at winning it all, but it wasn’t priced that way before the year. 

Feel worst about:

Saint Louis To Win The Atlantic 10 Regular Season: Once +750 to win the conference at DraftKings, the Billikens are now 13-1 after a pretty disappointing start to the year. I thought Robbie Avila and company would be able to cruise through the year, as Saint Louis has a good coach and some very talented players. But the Billikens look a little too top-heavy to me, with Avila, Isaiah Swope and Gibson Jimerson being the only players that opponents really fear. Saint Louis is also a nightmare defensively, ranking outside the Top 200 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Meanwhile, VCU, Dayton and St. Bonaventure all look tremendous. Perhaps the Billikens will get hot late in the year and make a run to win the conference tournament. But it’s hard to see them finishing the A-10 season with the league’s best record as long as they’re not playing well on both ends of the floor.”

Matt Youmans 

Feel best about:

Money already in his pocket: I cashed a ticket around 3-1 for Auburn to win the Maui Invitational. 

Feel worst about:

Not doing more with Auburn. I was looking at Baylor 20/1 and Auburn 25/1 and made the mistake of going with the Bears, who are a lost cause as a title contender. Auburn is No. 1 in my power ratings today, so obviously, not taking the Tigers is my biggest regret.

I was excited about Alabama, which I played at 20/1 over the summer, but the Tide is not turning into the powerhouse many of us expected. While you give coach Nate Oats credit for playing a tough non-conference schedule, I thought we would see more impressive results. Mark Sears is not playing like the best guard in the nation, and the team is shooting only 32% from 3-point range when reasonable expectations were closer to 40%. But there’s still a lot of time for Oats and Sears to get it right, so I’m OK with this bet.

The play on Kansas at 10/1 is currently my most disappointing, with the Jayhawks dropping out of the Top 10. The same is true for the play on Gonzaga at 20/,1 with the Zags already losing four times. The value on those plays is not there now. However, when you bet on elite coaches such as Bill Self and Mark Few, you hope they can get their teams to peak in February and March. I don’t feel like it’s going to happen for Gonzaga and Kansas at this point, but I’ll try to be patient. The last play I added prior to the season was Duke at 12/1. The Blue Devils have not been dominant, but Cooper Flagg and his supporting cast have a high ceiling.

Mitch Moss

Feel best about:

Auburn to win national championship: I bet Auburn at 23/1 on November 11th. It was after a few players were fighting each other on the flight to play Houston the next day. The plane had to turn around, and it didn’t matter. Auburn won at the Toyota Center in Houston despite the friction between teammates. Maybe this is Bruce Pearl’s year? 

Feel worst about:

Kansas to win the national championship: As Bill Self was continuing to put together a stellar roster in the offseason, I added Kansas at 12/1 on a parlay, trying to boost their odds. The other two legs on the parlay were Tarik Skubal to win the AL Cy Young (winner), and the Chiefs to win the AFC (pending). Even if Kansas City goes to another Super Bowl, I don’t like my chances of cashing this parlay. I am unimpressed with the Jayhawks to say the least.

Another regret was staring at a big number on Florida as they were destroying every team in their path early in the season. I decided against betting them.

Aaron Moore

Feel best about:

Johni Broome to win the Wooden Award: I had two SEC players pegged for this award, with Mark Sears being my top choice and Broome the backup – both in terms of expectations and unit size. The Auburn big man, who I got at 20-1, is the one currently running away with the award at more than -200. We have seen postseason awards markets make late shifts in a number of sports recently, so by no means does Broome have it locked up.

Feel worst about:

Indiana to win Big Ten: So much of betting is the psychological return as the financial one, and right now, I am upset at myself for even thinking Mike Woodson could pull this off. There is no sport where the head coach makes as much of an impact than in college basketball. I was blinded by the +750 the Hoosiers offered, and that outweighed my concerns about Woodsen’s decision-making. His big man is out bar hopping in the early hours before a game! In reality, Indiana isn’t out of the race, but Woodson needs to stick to a smaller lineup to get back into true contention. 

Wes Reynolds 

Feel best about:

Iowa State to win national championship: The 25 -1 odds I got are, by and large, cut in half now. Last year, the Cyclones finished No. 1 in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but ranked outside the Top 50 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This year, the defense is still elite, but the offense has taken a massive leap into the Top 10 in the efficiency rankings, and this is a veteran group with four starters back who made the second weekend last year and now have a great chance to make the third weekend at the Final Four. 

Feel worst about:

Indiana to win Big Ten: The Hoosiers, despite having a several million-dollar roster courtesy of NIL, did not have a marquee non-conference win. The league is still relatively wide open without a consensus favorite, but the Hoosiers do not look like a contender and would currently be on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Greg Peterson 

Feel best about:

None: I’m completely staying away from futures because of the unknown of how the NCAA Tournament draw will be, and no team being, in my opinion, one that isn’t prone to bad matchups. The potential value gained by grabbing a good number right now is mitigated by the risk of a bad seeding draw.

Feel worst about:

None: My futures portfolio currently has zero bets in there. Everything I’ve done this year has been individual games.

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