We’re exactly one month deep into the 2025-26 college basketball season, but already we’ve seen a season’s worth of changes, dominant performances and other huge storylines. As of Monday, 25 teams remained unbeaten, including eight from mid-major conferences. The competition level and quality of games have been outstanding, and have led to highly ranked teams like Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Kentucky suffering multiple defeats. That said, many of the teams that were expected to be powers have fulfilled that role, with Duke and Purdue among the teams that have yet to fall. Then, of course, there’s Michigan, who put on a show worthy of only the Vegas lights in the Players’ Era tournament to vault to the top of my power ratings. I’ll get into that in more detail in a bit, plus break down some huge scoring/pace changes we’ve seen, and how certain teams have changed dramatically in the early going.

Unless you’re just starting to get into the 2025-26 season, surely you have noticed that the scores have climbed dramatically in the first month. In fact, total point production is up about 6.0 points over the full 2024-25 season, and about 4.8 PPG over the first month of last season. With Points per Possession only slightly up (1.108 to 1.113), the cause for the increase is PACE, as more teams have picked up the tempo this season. In fact, at the conclusion of last season, by my metrics, teams were averaging about 65.1 possessions per game. This year, that number has climbed to 67.6. While not yet at the stupid and unwatchable levels seen in the NBA, this is something we are going to want to watch going forward. Historically, conference play sees scoring drop by about 1.5 total points per game, so we’ll see if 2025-26 follows suit. Not coincidentally, conference play starts with a Southland game on Monday night and continues with a handful of Big Ten games on Tuesday. 

 

What has the surge in early scoring this season meant for totals results? Well, after a slew of early Overs, oddsmakers adjusted quickly, and in fact, perhaps over-adjusted. Of the 1245 board games through Sunday, we have seen 641 Unders and 604 Overs. This past Sunday’s 28 games resulted in 20 Unders and 8 Overs, so the tide is definitely changing. 

Here are some other general trends we have seen early in the season: 

· Favorites of 30 points or more are 91-0 SU and 46-45 ATS (49.5%)

· Favorites of 20 points or more are 271-3 SU and 136-138 ATS (49.6%)

· Favorites in neutral games are 202-82 SU & 151-133 ATS (53.2%)

·  Home underdogs are just 35-85 SU & 51-69 ATS (42.5%)

· In games between power conference foes, favorites are 70-31 SU & 50-51 ATS (49.5%)

· In games between power conference teams and mid-majors, the power conference teams are 356-27 SU & 181-202 ATS (47.3%).

Best/Worst ATS Starts

As of Monday morning, there were seven teams that were undefeated against the spread after playing four or more board games in the first month. Here they are: 

BUTLER: 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS
CAL SAN DIEGO: 6-0 SU & ATS
NORTH FLORIDA: 0-5 SU but 5-0 ATS
SAM HOUSTON: 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS
NEW MEXICO STATE: 4-0 SU & ATS
PORTLAND STATE: 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS
NORTHERN ARIZONA: 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS 

Butler is of particular surprise in that the Bulldogs were generally picked to be among the three worst teams in the Big East this season. Cal San Diego set the tone last year with a huge season and is carrying the torch into 2025-26. They play a fast-paced brand of basketball where it seems all the players love to share the ball and shoot the 3. North Florida is playing a very tough schedule but proving to be very competitive early. That could bode well once Atlantic Sun play begins. 

There were 10 different teams that had yet to cover a point spread after playing at least four games in the first month. This is that group:

LOYOLA-IL: 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS
MISSISSIPPI STATE: 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS
OREGON: 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS
DELAWARE STATE: 0-6 SU & ATS
EASTERN KENTUCKY: 0-6 SU & ATS
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON: 0-6 SU & ATS
THE CITADEL: 0-6 SU & ATS
RIDER: 0-5 SU & ATS
UTEP: 0-4 SU & ATS
JACKSONVILLE STATE: 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS 

This is obviously a list that no one wants to be on, and coming off the offseason death of #1 fan Sister Jean, you have to wonder if some sort of hex has been placed on struggling Loyola (IL)? Mississippi State has some real concerns heading into conference season, with the SEC arguably lined up to be the best league in the country. I write about it every February, about how good Oregon always is down the stretch each season, but I’m not sure this start is what head coach Dana Altman had in mind. They need to pick it up quickly, as they have a conference date with USC already on Tuesday.

Biggest Power Rating Jumps Since Last Season 

You can see my full set of COLLEGE BASKETBALL STREGNTH RATINGS on the VSiN.com website, which includes Power, Effective Strength, Bettors’, Recent, and Schedule Strength Ratings for the 365 division 1 teams so far in 2025-26, but if you’re wondering which teams have made moves since last season, these are my biggest upward power rating moves from where they last left off in 2024-25: 

1. MIAMI (FL) (ACC): +14.5

2. NC STATE (ACC): +14.5

3. NEW ORLEANS (SOUTHLAND): +13

4. TULSA (AMERICAN ATHLETIC): +13

5. MICHIGAN (BIG TEN): +11.5

6. SETON HALL (BIG EAST): +11.5

7. VIRGINIA (ACC): +11.5

8. VANDERBILT (SEC): +11

9. BOWLING GREEN (MAC): +10.5

10. LSU (SEC): +10.5

As you can see, there are 10 teams that have made sizeable 10+ point jumps in my power ratings since last year. It’s also noteworthy that seven of these teams are power conference teams, illustrating the power a good transfer portal offseason can have. Typically, the mid-majors aren’t as dramatically affected.

These are the teams that have declined by at least 8.5 points on my power ratings since the end of last season: 

1. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE (MEAC): -13

2. MARYLAND (Big Ten): -12

3. LOYOLA (IL) (Atlantic 10): -11

4. CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon): -10

5. CS-NORTHRIDGE (Big West): -10

6. GARDNER WEBB (Big South): -9

7. NORTH ALABAMA (Atlantic Sun): -9

8. BRYANT (America East): -8.5

9. JACKSONVILLE STATE (Conference USA): -8.5

10. MISSOURI-KC (Summit): -8.5

11. UNC-GREENSBORO (Southern): -8.5

Biggest Scoring/Pace Changes Since Last Season

Here are the teams that I have adjusted most upward in terms of the scoring and pace. The first number represents my overall scoring adjustment, while the number in parentheses shows their Effective Possessions per Game change, or in other words, pace change. It’s interesting in that some of the teams’ scoring upticks and possessions upticks don’t necessarily coincide. For instance, Kansas State, NC State, and Georgia total scoring is way up despite a much slower pace. Defensive issues?

1. IU INDY (Horizon): +32.4 Total PPG, +7.8 Possessions per Game

2. MURRAY STATE (Missouri Valley): +25.3 Total PPG, +1.3 Possessions per Game

3. UNLV (Mountain West): +23.9 Total PPG, +0.2 Possessions per Game

4. CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon): +22.9 Total PPG, +2.7 Possessions per Game

5. KANSAS STATE (Big 12): +22.9 Total PPG, -2 Possessions per Game

6. NC STATE (ACC): +22.8 Total PPG, -0.9 Possessions per Game

7. GEORGIA (SEC): +22.8 Total PPG, -2.2 Possessions per Game

8. DUQUESNE (Atlantic 10): +19.6 Total PPG, +3.6 Possessions per Game

9. WAGNER (Northeast): +19 Total PPG, +12.5 Possessions per Game

10. IONA (Metro Atlantic): +18.7 Total PPG, +6.5 Possessions per Game

Here are the teams that have seemingly slowed it down in 2025-26, both in terms of their scoring and tempo. These teams are “going against the grain.” In the case of a team like Green Bay, coached by former CBS analyst Doug Gottlieb, the change is paying off.

1. DELAWARE STATE (MEAC): -18 Total PPG, -5.2 Possessions per Game

2. BRYANT (America East): -14.8 Total PPG, -12.3 Possessions per Game

3. IOWA (Big Ten): -14.3 Total PPG, -20.3 Possessions per Game

4. SAMFORD (Southern): -11.1 Total PPG, -14.9 Possessions per Game

5. WRIGHT STATE (Horizon): -10.6 Total PPG, -9.3 Possessions per Game

6. FORDHAM (Atlantic 10): -10.3 Total PPG, -12.2 Possessions per Game

7. WI-GREEN BAY (Horizon): -9.8 Total PPG, -5.4 Possessions per Game

8. MD-EAST SHORE (MEAC): -9.2 Total PPG, 2.6 Possessions per Game

9. RUTGERS (Big Ten): -9.1 Total PPG, -14.3 Possessions per Game

10. TEXAS STATE (Sun Belt): -9 Total PPG, -7 Possessions per Game

Who are the early title contenders? 

If you’ve been around for any of the VSiN College Basketball Tournament Guides over the last several seasons, you’ll know that I publish an article each March qualifying the potential champions based upon some key stats/ratings. Those that I like to focus most on as “elite” company, with the early qualifying teams include:

Steve Makinen Power Rating of at least 89
MICHIGAN: 98.5
DUKE: 96
GONZAGA: 95
PURDUE: 94.5
LOUISVILLE: 93.5
IOWA ST: 93.5
KENTUCKY: 92.5
ALABAMA: 92.5
VANDERBILT: 92.5
ARIZONA: 92.5
CONNECTICUT: 92
BYU: 91
FLORIDA: 91
ST JOHNS: 90.5
HOUSTON: 90.5
ILLINOIS: 90
TENNESSEE: 90
INDIANA: 89.5 

Steve Makinen Effective Strength Indicator Rating of at least +19 and ranked in the Top 6 nationally.
MICHIGAN: 36.5
DUKE: 31
GONZAGA: 30.1
LOUISVILLE: 29.7
PURDUE: 27.1
KENTUCKY: 26.8
IOWA STATE: 26.7
ALABAMA: 25.5
ILLINOIS: 24.9
INDIANA: 24.9
VANDERBILT: 24.6
CONNECTICUT: 24.4
ARIZONA: 23.8
ST JOHNS: 23.8
BYU: 22.5
GEORGIA: 22.5
LSU: 21.9
KANSAS: 21.1
TENNESSEE: 20.7
MICHIGAN STATE: 20.5
FLORIDA: 19.6
IOWA: 19.5
MIAMI: 19.4
HOUSTON: 19.1

Steve Makinen Bettors Rating of at least -17.5 and ranked in the Top 5 nationally.
DUKE: -25.7
GONZAGA: -23.8
MICHIGAN: -23.6
PURDUE: -23.1
LOUISVILLE: -23
FLORIDA: -22.5
IOWA STATE: -22.2
KENTUCKY: -22.2
CONNECTICUT: -22
ARIZONA: -21.2
VANDERBILT: -20.9
HOUSTON: -20.8
ILLINOIS: -20.5
ALABAMA: -19.7
BYU: -19.6
TENNESSEE: -19.5
ST JOHNS: -18.9
INDIANA: -18.7
TEXAS TECH: -18.7 

Scored at least 1.245 on my Effective Points per Possession on offense and ranked in the Top 18 nationally.
LOUISVILLE: 1.376
PURDUE: 1.365
ALABAMA: 1.359
VANDERBILT: 1.353
DUKE: 1.347
NC STATE: 1.346
IOWA STATE: 1.341
MICHIGAN: 1.331
LSU: 1.323
AUBURN: 1.319
ILLINOIS: 1.314
IOWA: 1.309
COLORADO ST: 1.306
VIRGINIA: 1.302
ST JOHNS: 1.299
KENTUCKY: 1.298
ARIZONA: 1.296
YALE: 1.295
AKRON: 1.293
GEORGIA: 1.292
GONZAGA: 1.291
CONNECTICUT: 1.29
BYU: 1.288
COLORADO: 1.286
INDIANA: 1.281
CLEMSON: 1.28
TENNESSEE: 1.278
BAYLOR: 1.276
ARKANSAS: 1.269
GEORGE WASHINGTON: 1.269
VILLANOVA: 1.268
TEXAS: 1.266
MISSOURI: 1.263
SANTA CLARA: 1.26
OKLAHOMA: 1.259
WISCONSIN: 1.257
TULSA: 1.256
HIGH POINT: 1.255
UCF: 1.25
USC: 1.25

Allowed better than 0.955 my Effective Points per Possession on defense and ranked in the Top 15 nationally.
MICHIGAN: 0.815
GONZAGA: 0.859
DUKE: 0.894
INDIANA: 0.917
HOUSTON: 0.918
MICHIGAN ST: 0.928
CONNECTICUT: 0.929
KENTUCKY: 0.943
FLORIDA: 0.944
TCU: 0.951
MIAMI: 0.953 

These “elite” lists are a little more extensive than usual, and I believe it has much to do with the separation between the haves and have-nots that we see nowadays in early-season college basketball. NIL and the transfer portal have had that effect, unfortunately. That said, the numbers will normalize as we get deeper into the season and the top teams embark on their much more difficult conference schedules. That said, it’s never too early to get a good snapshot of what’s going on in the early part of the college basketball season. I will have more on narrowing down the title contenders in a few weeks. If you’re familiar with that article series, I have a formula I have employed in finding the eventual title winner in seven straight seasons. Watch for that on VSiN soon!

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