It takes a very special college basketball team to cut down the nets at the end of the NCAA Tournament. There are a lot of boxes that title teams check, ranging from adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency to how battle-tested they are and everything in between. There are a lot of really good data sites out there for college hoops and, while all of them grade teams a little bit differently, the National Champion is overwhelmingly likely to come from the group of teams near the top.
Regular listeners of VSiN know that A Numbers Game host Gill Alexander has some certain things that he looks for, as does our VSiN Director of Analytics Steve Makinen. Even though March Madness is built on Cinderella stories and compelling personalities, the reality is that when we get down to the final few teams, the elites are going to stand out.
In other words, for those seeking out long shots to be covered in confetti on April 6, either save your money or look to invest in these teams.
Gill Alexander’s College Basketball National Championship Checklist
Last 35 champs had more assists than turnovers
32 of the last 35 champs had a coach with Sweet 16 experience
29 of the last 30 champs went into the tournament with at least three wins vs. teams in the top 10% of RPI
Last 30 champs had a top-75 strength of schedule
22 of the last 23 champs were top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom
22 of the last 23 champs were top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom
Nothing on that list is surprising given what it takes to work your way through the NCAA Tournament bracket and beat some very good teams along the way. But, it does help us narrow down the college basketball futures board quite a bit.
Using those six criteria, let’s look at the list of teams that check every box as of Feb. 26:
Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston, Florida, Iowa State
Michigan (+380) (No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency; No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency)
The head-to-head loss to Duke flipped the No. 1 and No. 2 overall teams for KenPom, but Bart Torvik still had the Wolverines No. 1 in his numbers at time of publish. Similarly, so did Haslametrics and Evan Miyakawa. Michigan has all of the quality wins required to check those boxes here and they’ve played one of the hardest schedules in the country. Head coach Dusty May even got Final Four experience with Florida Atlantic before even taking the Michigan job, where he went to the Sweet 16 last season. The Wolverines also average nearly 20 assists per game against 12 turnovers per contest.
Duke (+425) (No. 7 ADJOE; No. 1 ADJDE)
We all knew Duke was a really good team, but the win over Michigan in mid-February cemented just how good the Blue Devils are. This is Year 4 for Jon Scheyer, who took the Blue Devils to the Final Four last season and the Elite Eight the season prior. They’ve played a top-20 schedule and average 17.1 assists per game compared to 10.7 turnover per game. The win over Michigan vaulted Duke to No. 1 in KenPom’s rankings. While it wasn’t enough to do so with some other prominent rankings sites, the Blue Devils locked in a No. 1 seed with that win, even if it wasn’t really in question anyway.
Arizona (+450) (No. 8 in ADJOE; No. 3 in ADJDE)
The Wildcats are easily the most interesting team on this list and it isn’t because of anything that has happened in 2026. This isn’t the first elite-level team that head coach Tommy Lloyd has had. However, Lloyd has never led Arizona past the Sweet 16. While this is tracking to be his best team in five seasons in Tucson, he’s had a No. 1 seed, two No. 2 seeds, and a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament with three Sweet 16 exits and a first-round loss to Princeton in the 2/15 game. The Wildcats hit all of the criteria and may end the regular season with the most Quadrant 1 wins, but they are arguably the least trustworthy team on the list.
Houston (+1000) (No. 16 in ADJOE; No. 8 in ADJDE)
While a lot of people have plenty of reservations about Arizona, Houston is another team that fits the mold, but isn’t the most exciting bet to make. The Cougars haven’t had as much success against the other upper-echelon/elite teams that they’ve played. Head coach Kelvin Smapson has made it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last six NCAA Tournament appearances and finally got over the hump and got the Cougars to the Natty last season, where they lost to Florida. Their elite offensive ranking is a byproduct of having one of the nation’s lowest TO% marks, but this is not a very good shooting team. They hit each one of the benchmarks from Gill’s list, but it seems like they’re going to be a No. 2 seed after being a No. 1 seed each of the last three years.
Florida (+1100) (No. 13 in ADJOE; No. 4 in ADJDE)
It will be interesting to see by season’s end where things stand, but Florida has a negative 3P% differential, shooting well below 31% from 3 while opponents shoot just over 32%. The closest that I’ve even found to a National Champion with a 3P% differential that was close to even or negative in recent memory was the 2011 UConn Huskies, who were just +0.2%. After some pretty extensive research, I found that the last team to win the National Championship with a negative 3P% differential was the 1988 Kansas Jayhawks. So, yeah, Florida checks the above boxes, but that’s some pretty steep history to overcome.
Iowa State (+1600) (No. 18 in ADJOE; No. 7 in ADJDE)
We can all agree that Iowa State is the least discussed elite team in the nation, but there are some reasons for that. Their strength of schedule does crack the top 75, but it is easily the lowest of any of the others on this list. This is still a team with non-conference wins over St. John’s and Purdue to go along with some nice conference dubs. But, upcoming tilts with Texas Tech and Arizona have the chance to lower some of their rankings and numbers. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger does have two Sweet 16 appearances to his name, but he took a No. 3 seed to the dance last season and lost in the second round. They fit the bill, but are they a bet you want to make?
Honorable Mentions
Obviously this list is fluid given the top 20 designation in the efficiency metrics. Therefore, it should be noted that as of Feb. 26, teams just outside the cut line were Illinois (+1200), who ranked first in ADJOE and 30th in ADJDE, Purdue (+2800), who ranked second in ADJOE and 23rd in ADJDE, and UConn (+1400), who moved closer to this list by slaughtering St. John’s to improve to 21st in ADJOE and ninth in ADJDE. Gonzaga (+5000) is close, sitting 23rd in ADJOE and 12th in ADJDE.
Vanderbilt (12th, 21st) and Virginia (24th, 16th) do not have coaches with Sweet 16 experience.
You can keep up with all of this as the regular season winds down by checking out what KenPom and the other rankings sites have to offer, as well as what our own Steve Makinen has for these college basketball teams.
