Last week, I introduced the first of a three-part series on key betting data for the college basketball conference tournaments. In it, I covered the 15 mid-major conferences that tipped off their tournaments between March 2nd and March 9th. In this second part, I will be covering the 10 mid-major conferences starting their tournaments a bit later, specifically March 11th or beyond. The third part in the series, covering the power conferences, will be released right afterward.

In opening up last week’s piece, I explained how many bettors and fans find the two weeks of conference tournament games even more exhilarating than the postseason action. With the basketball we’ve seen lately, I’m sure we will be witnessing another full month of surprises and, well, madness. 

 

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For those of you who tend to invest more heavily in this time period than you will later in March, this conference tournament betting data, specifically team performance records, trends, and systems made just for you.

The angles I have chosen to look at focused on three key areas, with combinations of each in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges.

A reminder of the general thought I introduced last week. Bettors need to understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, heading into the 2025 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye are 312-106 SU and 219-191 ATS (53.4%) over the last five seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. There has been profit in betting that and considering nothing else.

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2025 tournaments. 

The leagues covered in this second mid-major piece include:

AMERICAN ATHLETIC – March 12
ATLANTIC 10 – March 12
BIG WEST – March 12
CONFERENCE USA – March 11
IVY LEAGUE – March 15
METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC – March 11
MAC – March 13
MEAC – March 12
MOUNTAIN WEST – March 12
SWAC – March 11
WAC – March 11 

Be sure to stay apprised of the conference tournament action by visiting those specially crafted pages over the next couple of weeks on VSiN.com.

American Athletic

Key Trend(s)

·   Opening round single-digit favorites are just 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 21 tries in the AAC tourney.

·   In the American quarterfinals, underdogs of 6 points or less that played in the opening round are on a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) stretch vs. teams that enjoyed a bye. In that same span since 2014, underdogs of 6.5 points or higher are 1-20 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%).

·   In the nine-year history of the AAC tourney, Under the total is 6-3-1 (66.7%) in the championship game. Favorites are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) in those contests, allowing just 60.4 PPG.

·   It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 146.5 or more in the tourney have gone 8-3 Under (72.7%) since 2016.

Atlantic 10

Key Trend(s)

·   The first round of the A-10 tournament is the only one in which underdogs have fared well historically, going 11-11 SU and 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since 2015. Under the total is also 12-4 (75%) in the last 16 games of the round.

·   The Atlantic 10 is one of just a few conferences that host a “second round” in its tournament. Favorites have been nearly automatic in this round since 2014, going 34-5 SU. Those laying 5.5 points or less are on an incredible 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) surge.

·   Atlantic 10 favorites are on a run of 20-4 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in the quarterfinal round. However, these teams were 1-3 SU and ATS last year in what proved to be a very strange tournament overall. In fact, team off of bye’s were just 1-6 ATS, a complete anomaly historically.

·   Favorites have also thrived in the semifinals of the A-10 tourney, 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) in the last nine brackets.

·   A-10 totals of 144 or higher have been predictably high scoring, going 18-10 Over the total (64.3%) since 2014.

Big West

Key Trend(s)

·   Since the recent expansion of the Big West tournament back in 2021, teams off of byes in earlier rounds have gone 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS (60%).

·   There has been a significant benchmark line point in recent years of the Big West tourney, and that has been 7.5 points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 17-2 SU and 10-8-1 ATS (55.6%) since 2014, while underdogs of 7 points or less have gone 34-23-3 ATS (59.7%) in that same span.

·   Favorites in the semifinal round of the Big West tournament are just 9-11 SU and 6-12-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2014.

·   Totals of 140 or less in the Big West tourney are 15-7 Under (68.2%) since 2014.

Conference USA

Key Trend(s)

·   In Conference USA’s ever-changing field, favorites have been a reliable wager over the last nine years, going 65-27 SU and 54-37-1 ATS (59.3%) during that stretch. Those laying 7 points or more are on a 22-3 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) run.

·   Teams off a bye in earlier round(s) are on a 34-9 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) run in the CUSA tourney versus teams that have already played.

·   Conference USA tournament games have gone Under the total at a 38-21 (64.4%) rate since 2018. Those with totals of more than 147 are on an 18-7 Under (72%) surge.

Ivy League

Key Trend(s)

·   The previous five Ivy League tourneys have shown a distinct pattern regarding rounds and totals. Championship games are 4-2 Over the total (66.7%), while semifinal games are 7-5 Under the total (58.3%).

·   Totals of 143 or more are on a 6-2 Under the total (75%) surge in the brief Ivy League bracket.

·   Ivy League tourney favorites of 4 points or more have gone 9-1 outright (5-4-1 ATS, 71.4%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic

Key Trend(s)

·   The smallest of favorites have been the most successful of late in the MAAC tournament, with those laying 2 points or fewer going 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) since 2014.

·   Other single-digit MAAC tourney favorites (-2.5 or higher) are just 32-23 SU but 20-33-2 ATS (37.7%) since 2017.

·   Byes have not been a huge reward lately for the MAAC’s top teams as those teams off of byes playing against teams that have played already are just 11-10 SU and 6-14-1 ATS (30%) since 2016 in this bracket.

·   MAAC Championship game favorites are on an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS (70%) surge, although St. Peter’s won last year as a 3-point dog.

·   The last five Metro Atlantic tourneys have trended massively Under on totals, 30-15 (66.7%) in fact.

·   The highest totaled games (154+) in the MAAC tourney have trended significantly Under, 12-1 (92.3%) in the last 13. However, there hasn’t been such a game since 2018.

Mid-American

Key Trend(s)

·   Favorites of 4.5 points or more in the MAC tourney boast a record of 34-5 SU since 2017, to go along with a respectable ATS record of 23-15-1 (60.5%). Favorites of 4 points or fewer are on a 9-15 SU and 6-18 ATS skid (25%).

·   The 2020 MAC tournament fell victim to COVID-19. However, since then, favorites have been on a major roll, 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%).

·   The semifinal round of the MAC tournament has been the most predictable as far as totals are concerned, 12-6 Under the total (66.7%) since 2014.

Mid-Eastern Athletic

Key Trend(s)

· Small underdogs of 5 points or less are on a highly profitable 13-9 SU and 18-4 ATS (81.8%) run up through the quarterfinal round of the MEAC tournament.

·  MEAC Semifinal favorites are on a 9-4 SU & ATS (69.2%) surge but did lose both games outright last year.

· Eight of the last 10 (80%) MEAC Championship games went Under the total

· Extreme totals have shown definitive Under results in the MEAC tournament since 2015, with totals of more than 148 showing 12-1 Under (92.3%), and those less than 132 going 10-3 Under (76.9%).

Mountain West

Key Trend(s)

·   Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 43-22 ATS (66.2%) surge. Only two of the last 28 such games have resulted in outright upsets.

·  MWC teams facing an opponent that had an earlier round bye are just 3-19 SU and 8-14 ATS (36.4%) as underdogs of fewer than 12 points since 2014. In all other line scenarios, including when favored, they are 10-0 ATS (100%).

·   MWC Semifinal favorites are on a current run of 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%), including 10 straight outright wins and six straight covers.

·   The last six MWC title games went Under the total (100%).

·   Lofty totals of more than 150 in the MWC tourney are on a 9-2 Under (81.8%) surge.

Southwestern Athletic

Key Trend(s)

·   The SWAC tournament has proven to be quite chalky over the last eight years, with favorites of 3 points or more on a 32-7 SU and 25-12-2 ATS (67.6%) run.

·   SWAC semifinal favorites boast a record of 16-3 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) since 2014.

·   Favorites in the SWAC title game are on a 2-10 ATS (16.7%) skid and have lost four of the last five outright.

Western Athletic

Key Trend(s)

·   WAC teams coming off an earlier round bye and have been favored have gone 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%).

·   Only three WAC tournament underdogs of 3 points or more have won outright in the last 11 years, going 3-49 SU and 20-32 ATS (38.5%).

·   WAC championship favorites are on an 11-2 SU & ATS (84.6%) surge, with the only two losses coming in 2021 and 2023 with 1-point dogs winning.

·   Totals of higher than 147 are on a 12-5 Under (70.6%) run in the WAC tourney. There were no such games a year ago.

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