College Basketball Predictions
The championship futures market can be tricky in college basketball. The fact that a national champion has to win a 68-team tournament makes it very difficult to look ahead. In college football, a Georgia backer will think about how the Bulldogs match up with a handful of teams — Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, etc. — in potential College Football Playoff showdowns. That’s not doable here. There’s far more parity in college basketball, and stylistic differences can mean everything in a single-elimination tournament. That means that there’s a lot more to think about. But that doesn’t mean you can’t get involved at all.
I like attacking this market by hunting value in a few different categories. I’m looking for a top-tier team that might be slept on compared to other contenders, a mid-tier team with the potential to break into that top group and then a sleeper with high upside. For some of these, winning the championship shouldn’t be the ultimate goal. Sometimes you should be trying to get a favorable price to set up some hedging opportunities down the road.
With that out of the way, here are a few tickets I’m adding before the year:
Iowa State (30-1)
I think it’s going to be very clear early in the season that this is a top-five team in the country. That means you won’t be able to get these odds by the time the Big Dance rolls around.
Last year, Iowa State was first in KenPom’s defensive rating and second in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency. This year, head coach T.J. Otzelberger has the core of that team back. So, this is a group that should be very difficult to score on, but I also think we can expect some growth offensively.
Iowa State was just 52nd in the nation in offensive rating last year, but this team has its three best guards back. Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones should all be awesome this year. The Cyclones also added Northern Iowa transfer Nate Heise, a versatile player with good size and great instincts. There might not be a team in the nation with guard play this good, and the frontcourt has potential also. Milan Momcilovic made the conference’s All-Freshman team last year, and he’s only going to get better in Year 2. And Charlotte transfer Dishon Jackson could give the team a much-needed inside presence.
Having reliable guards is crucial in the NCAA Tournament, and the Cyclones have three that can be the best player on the floor on any given night. Then you have Momcilovic, who is a legitimate NBA talent on the wing. Combining that with good coaching and real continuity should give Iowa State a chance of being a special team.
Rutgers (55-1)
Steve Pikiell has taken Rutgers to the NCAA Tournament three times in the last five years, and most of those teams lacked talent. Pikiell is just incredible at getting his teams to defend. Even last year’s 15-17 Scarlet Knights group was fifth in the nation in defensive rating, according to KenPom. It was the second year in a row that Rutgers was a top-10 defensive team, and the fourth time in the last five years that the Scarlet Knights were top 20 in defensive rating. If Pikiell can get this year’s group to defend, Rutgers could be one of the best teams in college basketball. That’s because talent isn’t an issue anymore.
Rutgers actually landed the second-best 2024 recruiting class in the nation, according to ESPN. The group is headlined by Ace Bailey, a 6-foot-10 wing with outrageous size, athleticism and shot-making ability. Bailey was the second-ranked recruit in the class, putting him right behind Duke phenom Cooper Flagg. Pikiell also secured the fourth-ranked recruit in the class in Dylan Harper, whose brother Ron Harper Jr. played for Rutgers a few years ago. Harper is an incredible on-ball player, as he can work magic as a pick-and-roll ball handler and is a true three-level scorer.
For as good as Pikiell’s teams can be defensively, they can be pretty miserable offensively. But it’s going to be hard for him to mess things up on that end of the floor with Bailey and Harper. Rutgers also has some solid returners in Jeremiah Williams, Jamichael Davis and Emmanuel Ogbole.
Honestly, the only thing to really worry about with this group is 3-point shooting. Pikiell needs to find some time for his designated floor-spacers. Luckily he has a few of them. PJ Hayes, a San Diego transfer, shot 39.7% from deep last year, so he could be a big factor right away. The same goes for Princeton transfer Zach Martii, who is 6-foot-8 and shot 38.5% from 3 last year. Even Tyson Acuff, who averaged 21.7 points per game for Eastern Michigan last year, is a much better shooter than his 29.2% 3P% last year suggests. And he’ll get cleaner looks as a smaller part of this offense.
There’s going to be a lot for Pikiell to figure out on the fly, but his teams generally outperform their talent. So, if that trend continues with this type of roster, you’re looking at a potential contender.
Arizona State (500-1)
After going 42-20 in two years at Buffalo, Bobby Hurley’s Arizona State tenure has been plagued by inconsistency. In nine years, Hurley has had four seasons with at least 20 wins. However, he has also had five with 15 or fewer. But for the most part, Hurley’s teams have overachieved, and he has proven that he is a good defensive coach. Now, Hurley will try to build a team that is great on both ends of the floor, and he’ll be doing it with the best roster he has ever had.
Thanks to John Calipari’s Kentucky exit, Hurley was able to flip five-star Jayden Quaintance, a 6-foot-9 big man with all-world explosiveness, a high motor and some unique skills. Then, when Caleb Love announced he was returning to Arizona, Hurley swooped in and convinced the 22nd-ranked prospect in the class, Joson Sanon, to ditch Tucson for Tempe. Sanon is viewed as a potential one-and-done player because of his ability to make shots. With four-star wing Amier Ali already in the mix, Hurley got himself ESPN’s seventh-ranked 2024 recruiting class.
Hurley also happened to bring in some remarkable transfers. Alston Mason, who could start at point, averaged 17.5 points and 3.6 assists per game for Missouri State last year. Wing BJ Freeman, who averaged 21.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game on solid shooting splits for Milwaukee, has the potential to be one of the best players in the Big 12. And forward Basheer Jihad was an All-MAC player last year, averaging 18.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals per game.
Those experienced newcomers join productive returners Adam Miller, a guard that averaged 12.0 points per game last year, and center Shawn Phillips Jr., a center that does some of the dirty work.
Like Pikiell and Rutgers, there will be a lot that Hurley will have to piece together this year. And the 53-year-old isn’t going to have a lot of time to do it. But having talented young players that can play with anyone immediately, along with older guys that have proven themselves already, is not a bad problem to have. In terms of pure talent, this Sun Devils team will never be overmatched. So, at 500-1, it’s worth some pizza money to hope it all comes together.
