The VSiN March Mania Betting Guide is jampacked with trends from past NCAA tournaments, so much so that perhaps one might even consider it “overload.” For those of you who might be overwhelmed and just looking for a quick tip or two (or 100), I present the next in a series of pieces I will be doing over the next few weeks for the tournament. In it, I will be taking all of the trend data that I presented in the Round-by-Round & Conference trend pieces in the guide, plus the top head-to-head series histories, and fitting the information to the specific matchups for the 2026 tournament. 

Unfortunately, because of the time crunch associated with the bracket announcement and the whirlwind submitting of data and articles in less than a 24-hour period, this is logistically impossible for the guide release. This article series solves that problem for VSiN Pro Subscribers. Plus, it will help keep bettors apprised of all the key trends available to the games as we progress deeper in the tourney, so we won’t overlook anything. I use the term “we” because I, too, am using this information for my own wagering purposes. 

Without further ado, here are the first-round trends qualified for the 2026 matchups. Look for the next piece in the series, the Second Round Analytics Report, on Saturday morning. Note that all trend records are as of heading into the 2026 NCAA tournament and haven’t been adjusted for earlier round results. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the First Round:

• Teams that didn’t make their conference tournament championship game are on a first-round slide of just 44-64-2 ATS (40.7%) versus conference champions, historically good go-against teams. However, they have put together back-to-back winning years, including 7-6 ATS in 2024, so we could be witnessing a shift as teams place less importance on advancing in their league title game as opposed to being ready for the NCAA’s. The difference between Power 5 teams and mid-major conference champs is also growing thanks to NIL money. If this angle doesn’t do well in 2026, I will be putting it to pasture.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina, Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Villanova, Wisconsin

• Power conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference championship game are 67-18 SU and 48-35-2 ATS (57.8%) in the first round over the last 17 seasons, a sign that the tournament experience they gained was valuable despite the conference championship loss.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Michigan, Connecticut, Houston, Vanderbilt, Virginia

• Oddsmakers have done bettors a favor by signaling first-round upsets, as small first-round favorites of -1 to -3 are just 62-64 SU and 51-71-4 ATS (41.8%) since ’09. However, this is another trend that has also swung the other way in the last three years of chalky first rounds, going 13-6 SU and ATS.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Georgia, Ohio State, North Carolina, BYU, Iowa, Miami, Utah State

• Of late, mid-level favorites of -3.5 to -7.5 have also struggled, going 49-32 SU but 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016 in the first round.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Louisville, St Marys-CA, Texas Tech, UCLA, Kentucky, TENNESSEE (vs. SMU?)

• Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites have been very successful, going 107-9 SU and 65-51 ATS (56%). This goes entirely against the Cinderella negative that the media and fans seem to crave and is another angle that could be increasingly successful as NIL money impacts the haves and have-nots.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Michigan State, Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Houston, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Florida, Alabama, Connecticut, Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona, TENNESSEE (vs. Miami (OH)?)

• On totals in the first round recently, games posted with totals of 149 or higher have trended decisively Under in the last six tourneys, going 31-13 (70.5%), including 10-3 last year.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville, Howard-Michigan, Saint Louis-Georgia, VSU-North Carolina, Pennsylvania-Illinois, McNeese State-Vanderbilt, High Point-Wisconsin, Hawaii-Arkansas, Texas-BYU, Kennesaw State-Gonzaga, Akron-Texas Tech, Hofstra-Alabama, UCF-UCLA, Queens Coll-Purdue, Santa Clara-Kentucky, Tennessee State-Iowa State, Long Island-Arizona

• First Four teams not seeded 16th that survived their opening opponent have gone 19-7 Under the total (73.1%) in their last 26 first round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Howard-Michigan, Texas-BYU, Lehigh/Prairie View-Florida, SMU/Miami Ohio-Tennessee

• There are some sweet spots when it comes to betting #1 seeds. As huge favorites of -25.5 or more, they are 39-0 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) since 2001. As favorites of -19 to -25 points, they are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%) since 2009. When favored by 18.5 or less, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. 
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: ON Michigan (-31.5), Duke (-28.5), Arizona (-30.5), Florida (-33.5? vs. Lehigh/Prairie View)

• #1 seeds have flexed their muscles defensively over the last seven tournaments, going 16-8 Under the total (66.7%) while holding opponents to 58.4 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Howard-Michigan, Siena-Duke, Long Island-Arizona, Lehigh/Prairie View-Florida

• Be wary of laying big numbers with #2 seeds, as they are just 16-26-1 ATS (38.1%) since 2005 when favored by 17-points or more.  Those #2’s favored by less than 17 points are on an impressive 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%)
run since 2007.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Purdue, Houston, Iowa State, Connecticut

• The last 31 #3 seeds to play in first round games are on an impressive 29-2 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%) surge. Of course, one of those outright losses came just two years ago when Oakland upended Kentucky.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Gonzaga, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State

•  #4 seeds have turned around what was a terrible eight-tournament skid of 11-20-1 ATS by going 11-0 SU and 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three years in the first round.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arkansas, Alabama, Kansas, Nebraska

• Quite the opposite of the #3 seeds, the #4 seeds have really struggled in lower-totaled games of less than 142, going 15-7 SU but 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since 2013.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Nebraska, Kansas

• #5 seeds broke a lengthy skid versus the #12’s in 2023 by going 4-0 SU and ATS. They have fallen back to previous norms over the last two years by going 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS. In all, they are 25-36-3 ATS (40.9%) over the last 16 tournaments. These #5s remain extremely vulnerable when playing as 6-point favorites or more lately, 21-10 SU but 10-19-2 ATS (34.5%) since 2009.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST St Johns (-9.5), Texas Tech (-7.5), Vanderbilt (-11.5), Wisconsin (-9.5)

• Power Conference Schools are 26-20 SU and 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%) as #5 seeds in the first round since 2008, including Clemson’s outright loss in 2025. As #12 seeds, they are on a 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST St Johns, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin

• #5s have also struggled in expectedly lower scoring games with totals of 141 or less recently, 14-28-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2009.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST St Johns

• #6 seeds are 31-33 SU & 25-38-1 ATS (39.7%) in their last 64 first round games versus #11s (also 42-20-2 Under – 67.7%). Last year’s 3-1 SU and ATS mark was their first winning season since 2013.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Louisville, BYU, North Carolina, Tennessee

• In #6-#11 games set with the #6 playing as an underdog or pick ’em, the #6s are just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%) since 2001. This is a classic trap set by oddsmakers, although Ole Miss (+1.5) did edge North Carolina in 2025.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST BYU? (-1.5 vs. Texas at presstime)

• Be aware of a total opportunity when #6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more, as Unders are 22-5-1 (81.5%) in such games since 2009, with games producing just 130.7 PPG on average, with totals of about 139.4.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville (-4.5), SMU/Miami (OH)-Tennessee

• Mid-major schools playing as #7 seeds have been a sound wagering choice, 22-10-1 ATS (68.8%) since 2004. In the 2025 bracket, #7 St Mary’s (-4.5) failed to cover vs. Vanderbilt, 59-56.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: St Mary’s (CA)

• #7 seeds playing in the +3 to -3 line range have proven to be quite profitable over the long haul, 42-21 SU and 39-23-1 ATS (62.9%) since 2003, including 4-0 SU and ATS in 2024.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Miami (FL)

• The last four NCAA tournaments have seen #7 seeds go 12-4 Under the total (75%) in their first round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Santa Clara-Kentucky, Miami-Missouri, St Marys CA-Texas A&M, UCLA-UCF

• #8 seeds went 2-2 SU and ATS in 2025, running their seven-year mark to just 10-18 SU and ATS (35.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Ohio State, Villanova, Georgia, Clemson

• As small favorites of 3.5 points or less over #9s, #8 seeds are on a brutal skid of 9-17 SU and 6-19-1 ATS (24%)!
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Ohio State, Georgia

• Of the last 33 #8-#9 matchups, 21 have gone Over the total (63.6%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in TCU-Ohio State, Utah State-Villanova, Saint Louis-Georgia, Iowa-Clemson

• Combined, mid-major conference programs playing in the #4-#6 seeds over the last 23 years have gone 31-25 SU but 22-33-1 ATS (40%). They have been far more successful against the spread in the lesser pressure #7 and #8 seeds, 35-25-4 ATS (58.3%) in that same time range.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: ON #7 St Marys-CA

• Power conference programs have been very dangerous in the #11-#14 seed range, going 30-21 SU and 31-19-1 ATS (62%) since 2008. In the 2025 tournament, two qualifiers lost outright and ATS, however, nearly negating the 3-0 SU and ATS performance of 2024.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Texas, SMU?

ACC

Teams in the First Round matchup
CLEMSON (South #8) vs. IOWA-Big Ten
DUKE (East #1) vs. SIENA-Metro Atlantic
LOUISVILLE (East #6) vs. S FLORIDA-American Athletic
MIAMI (FL) (West #7) vs. MISSOURI-SEC
NORTH CAROLINA (South #6) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH-Atlantic 10
SMU (Midwest #11) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC???
VIRGINIA (Midwest #3) vs. WRIGHT STATE-Horizon

Trends

–  Over the last four NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 37-20 SU & ATS (64.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), North Carolina, SMU???, Virginia

–  In the role of pick em’ or small underdog (up to 4.5-points), ACC teams are currently on a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Clemson, SMU???

–  ACC teams are just 33-52-1 ATS (38.8%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAA’s since 1998.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Louisville, Miami, North Carolina

– ACC teams are 36-3 SU but 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 as double-digit tourney favorites.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Duke, Virginia

–  ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2012.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: SMU???

–  Nineteen of the last 26 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (73.1%). Both went Under last year by over 20 points.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Miami (FL)-Missouri, SMU-Tennessee???

–  In that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup, underdogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) surge since 2017.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Miami (FL), ON SMU???

American Athletic

Teams in the First Round matchup
SOUTH FLORIDA (East #11) vs. LOUISVILLE-ACC

Trends

–  American Athletic teams are 13-5 Under the total (72.2%) in their last 18 tourney games as underdogs.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville

–  In their last 25 tourney games versus power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 18-10 Under the total (64.3%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in South Florida-Louisville

Atlantic 10

Teams in the First Round matchup
SAINT LOUIS (Midwest #9) vs. GEORGIA-SEC
VA COMMONWEALTH (South #11) vs. NORTH CAROLINA-ACC

Trends

–  Atlantic 10 teams have won just four of their last 16 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (25%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, Va Commonwealth

–  Favorites are on a 21-6 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, Va Commonwealth

Atlantic Sun

Teams in the First Round matchup
QUEENS COLL (West #15) vs. PURDUE-Big Ten

Trends

–   Atlantic Sun teams are on an 11-6 ATS (64.7%) run in NCAA tourney games since 2013, including 9-5 ATS (64.3%) vs. Power 5 conferences.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Queens Coll

–   Atlantic Sun teams are on 5-1 Under (83.3%) the total run in NCAA’s overall and 6-2 Under the total (75%) in their last eight vs. power conference teams.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Queens Coll-Purdue

Big 12

Teams in the First Round matchup
ARIZONA (West #1) vs. LONG ISLAND-Northeast
BYU (West #6) vs. TEXAS-SEC
HOUSTON (South #2) vs. IDAHO-Big Sky
IOWA STATE (Midwest #2) vs. TENNESSEE STATE-Ohio Valley
KANSAS (East #4) vs. CAL BAPTIST-WAC
TCU (East #9) vs. OHIO STATE-Big Ten
TEXAS TECH (Midwest #5) vs. AKRON-Mid-American
UCF (East #10) vs. UCLA-Big Ten

Trends

–  Big 12 teams have been dominant in the First Four/first round games of the tournament since 2017, going 41-14 SU and 35-20 ATS (63.6%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

–  Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 29-38 SU and 26-40 ATS (39.4%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Kansas, Texas Tech

–  Against mid-major teams in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a 27-12 ATS (69.2%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

–   Underdogs are on a 10-3-1 ATS (76.9%) run in NCAAT games between the Big 12 and Big Ten conferences.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: TCU, UCF

–   Big 12 teams have lost 63 of their 79 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 33-45-1 ATS (42.3%) in those games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST TCU, UCF

–  As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 37-2 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

–  In expectedly high-scoring NCAA tournament games, or those with totals >155, Big 12 teams are on a 19-8 ATS (70.3%) run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Arizona, BYU, Texas Tech

Big East

Teams in the First Round matchup
CONNECTICUT (East #2) vs. FURMAN-Southern
ST JOHN’S (East #5) vs. N IOWA-Missouri Valley
VILLANOVA (West #8) vs. UTAH STATE-Mountain West

Trends

– Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in the NCAA’s since 2016.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Connecticut

–  The last 46 Big East teams to play as seeds of #7 or worse in the NCAA tourney are just 15-38 SU and 20-33 ATS (37.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

–  Teams from the Big East Conference have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAA’s since 2007, going 45-3 SU and 33-15 ATS (68.8%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Connecticut

– Teams from the Big East in the #8-#9 First Round matchup are just 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in the NCAA’s since 2005. However, both UConn and Creighton won in this scenario last year.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

–  Big East teams are on a 10-3 SU and ATS (76.9%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Villanova

–  Favorites are 56-23 ATS (70.9%) in the last 79 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) the last three years.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: ON Connecticut, St Johns, AGAINST Villanova

–   In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and mid-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 34-12 SU and 33-11 ATS (75%) run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: St Johns, Villanova

–  Big East teams have struggled in the NCAAT in the +3 to -3 line range, going 39-56 ATS (41.1%) since 2004.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Villanova

Big Sky

Teams in the First Round matchup
IDAHO (South #15) vs. HOUSTON-Big 12

Trends

–  Big Sky teams are just 1-24 SU and 6-19 ATS (24%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-17 ATS (15%) as an underdog of less than 20 points.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Idaho

–  Big Sky teams have lost 22 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-17 ATS (22.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Idaho

–  Big Sky teams are on a 5-1 Over the total (83.3%) surge in the NCAA’s, but Montana did go Under in 2025.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Idaho-Houston

Big South

Teams in the First Round matchup
HIGH POINT (West #12) vs. WISCONSIN-Big Ten 

Trends

–   Big South teams are 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since 2003, 3-9 ATS (25%) in all other seeds.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST #12 High Point

–   Big South teams are on a 16-6 Under the total (72.7%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 56.9 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Wisconsin

–  Big South teams have gone Under the total in ALL 11 (100%) previous NCAAT games with totals of 140 or higher.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Wisconsin

Big Ten

Teams in the First Round matchup
ILLINOIS (South #3) vs. PENNSYLVANIA-Ivy League
IOWA (South #9) vs. CLEMSON-ACC
MICHIGAN (Midwest #1) vs. HOWARD-MEAC
MICHIGAN STATE (East #3) vs. NORTH DAKOTA STATE-Summit
NEBRASKA (South #4) vs. TROY-Sun Belt
OHIO STATE (East #8) vs. TCU-Big 12
PURDUE (West #2) vs. QUEENS NC-Atlantic Sun
UCLA (East #7) vs. UCF-Big 12
WISCONSIN (West #5) vs. HIGH POINT-Big South

Trends

–  Big Ten teams are on an insane 48-21 Under the total (69.6%) run in the last four NCAA tournaments.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Illinois-Pennsylvania, Iowa-Clemson, Michigan-Howard, Michigan State-North Dakota State, Nebraska-Troy, Ohio State-TCU, Purdue-Queens Coll, UCLA-UCF, High Point-Wisconsin

–  Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tourney tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Nebraska

–  Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 56-5 SU and 36-21-4 ATS (63.2%) since 1998, including 7-0 SU and ATS the last two years.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue

–  Big Ten teams have gone just 16-23 SU and 17-21-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Ohio State, UCLA

–  In tourney games versus mid-major conference foes over the last three seasons in the NCAA’s, Big Ten teams are on an 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) run. They are also 26-7 Under the total (78.8%) in their last 33 such games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin and UNDER the total in Illinois-Pennsylvania, Michigan-Howard, Michigan State-North Dakota State, Nebraska-Troy, Purdue-Queens Coll, High Point-Wisconsin

–  Going back to 2017, Big Ten teams boast a 45-12 SU and 36-20-1 ATS (64.3%) record in the NCAAT first round.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big West

Teams in the First Round matchup
HAWAII (West #13) vs. ARKANSAS-SEC

Trends

–  Big West teams are just 4-21 SU and 9-15-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 25 NCAA tournament games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hawaii

–  Big West teams have trended Under on totals in five straight NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Hawaii-Arkansas

–   Big West teams have struggled in the role of large underdog, 1-20 SU and 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) when catching 6.5 points or more in the tourney since 1998.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hawaii

Coastal Athletic

Teams in the First Round matchup
HOFSTRA (Midwest #13) vs. ALABAMA-SEC

Trends

– Coastal Athletic teams used to be among the country’s best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance, however, they have lost their last 12 games outright and are 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in their last six.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Hofstra

–  Coastal Athletic teams are on a 24-9-2 ATS (72.7%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams, including UNCW (+15.5) 82-72 loss to Texas Tech last year.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Hofstra

–  Under the total is 8-2 (80%) in the last 10 Coastal Athletic NCAA tournament games versus other mid-major conference teams. Over is 7-4 (63.6%) in the last 11 vs. power conference foes.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against OVER the total in Hofstra-Alabama

Conference USA

Teams in the First Round matchup
KENNESAW STATE (West #14) vs. GONZAGA-West Coast 

Trends

–  Take away Florida Atlantic’s 4-1 SU and ATS run in 2023 and it’s a 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) NCAA tourney slide for Conference USA teams since 2009.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Kennesaw State

–  Double-digit seeded Conference USA teams are on a 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) slide in the NCAA’s.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Kennesaw State

Horizon

Teams in the First Round matchup
WRIGHT STATE (Midwest #14) vs. VIRGINIA-ACC 

Trends

–  Horizon League teams have lost 14 of their last 16 NCAA tourney games while going 8-8 ATS (50%). However, they are currently on a 6-game ATS win streak.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Wright State

–  Horizon League teams are on a 17-9 Under the total (65.4%) NCAA run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Wright State-Virginia

–  Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 1-17 SU and 7-9 ATS (43.8%) since 2002. In all other games, they are 20-11 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Wright State

–  In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 2-16 SU and 8-10 ATS (44.4%) since 2002. Versus other mid-majors, Horizon League teams are on an 8-2 SU and ATS tourney surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Wright State

Ivy

Teams in the First Round matchup
PENNSYLVANIA (South #14) vs. ILLINOIS-Big Ten

Trends

–  Ivy League teams have gone 8-14 SU and 13-9 ATS (59.1%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Pennsylvania

–  Ivy League teams are on a 20-13 Under the total (60.6%) NCAA run, but they have gone Over in each of their last four tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Pennsylvania-Illinois

–  As underdogs of 5 points or more in the NCAA’s, Ivy League teams are just 5-24 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) since 2000. They are also 19-10 Under the total (65.5%) in those games, scoring just 62.4 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Pennsylvania & UNDER the total in Pennsylvania-Illinois 

Metro Atlantic

Teams in the First Round matchup
SIENA (East #16) vs. DUKE-ACC

Trends

–  Metro Atlantic Athletic are now 2-6 SU and ATS (25%) in their last eight NCAA tourney tries as a non-double-digit underdog. They are 4-2 ATS (66.7%) in their last six as a double-digit dog.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Siena

Mid-American

Teams in the First Round matchup
AKRON (Midwest #12) vs. TEXAS TECH-Big 12
MIAMI (OH) (Midwest #11) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC???

Trends

–   Mid-American Conference teams are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse, but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Akron, Miami (OH)???

–  Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in their last 16 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tourney.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Akron, Miami (OH)???

–   MAC teams have gone Under the total in their last seven NCAA tourney games (100%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total Akron-Texas Tech, Miami (OH)-Tennessee???

Mid-Eastern

Teams in the First Round matchup
HOWARD (Midwest #16) vs. MICHIGAN-Big Ten

Trends

–  MEAC teams are on a 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) slide in the NCAA’s, including 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS (25%) in first round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Howard

– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily Under on totals, 18-11 (62.1%) in the last 29. However, the last three have gone Over.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Howard-Michigan

Missouri Valley

Teams in the First Round matchup
NORTHERN IOWA (East #12) vs. ST JOHN’S-Big East

Trends

–  Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 21-16 SU and 21-15-1 ATS (60.8%) in the NCAA tournament since 2013.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

–  MVC teams are on a 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) NCAA tourney run against power conference schools.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

–  MVC teams are 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) since 2006 as an NCAA tournament underdog of 3 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

–  Underdogs are 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) since 2013 in MVC NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Northern Iowa

–  Under the total is 16-7 (69.6%) in the last 23 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games, including 11-3 Under in games with totals >=144.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Northern Iowa-St John’s (131.5)

Mountain West

Teams in the First Round matchup
UTAH STATE (West #9) vs. VILLANOVA-Big East 

Trends

– I have shared Mountain West teams’ struggles annually in the NCAA’s in recent years, as collectively they are just 32-67 SU and 32-64-3 ATS (33.3%) since 2001.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

–  Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAA’s since 2000, 14-55 SU and 18-49-2 ATS (26.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

–  As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAA’s, MWC teams are on a brutal 7-41 SU and 10-36-2 ATS (21.7%) since 2003!
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Utah State

Northeast

Teams in the First Round matchup
LONG ISLAND (West #16) vs. ARIZONA-Big 12

Trends

–  Northeast teams are 5-1 ATS over the last three NCAA tourneys, snapping a slide of 4-9-1 ATS in the prior 14 games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Long Island

–  Northeast Conference teams are on a 9-3 Over the total (75%) surge as a double-digit NCAA tourney underdog.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Long Island-Arizona

Ohio Valley

Teams in the First Round matchup
TENNESSEE STATE (Midwest #15) vs. IOWA STATE-Big 12

Trends

–  Ohio Valley Conference teams have gone 1-6 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last seven NCAA tournament games after a 15-6 ATS run prior.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Tennessee State

–  OVC teams are 8-4 ATS (66.7%) in their last 12 NCAA tourney games when playing as dogs of 9 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Tennessee State

–  Ohio Valley teams are 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in their last 18 NCAAT games with totals >=141
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Tennessee State

–   Over the total is 10-4 (71.4%) in the last 13 Ohio Valley NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Tennessee State-Iowa State

Patriot

Teams in the First Round matchup
LEHIGH (South #16) vs. FLORIDA-SEC???

Trends

–  Patriot League teams are 10-6 (62.5%) ATS as double-digit underdogs in the NCAA’s since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Lehigh???

–  Patriot League teams are 12-8 (60%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAA’s since 2000, but 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) against fellow mid-major teams.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Lehigh???

SEC

Teams in the First Round matchup
ALABAMA (Midwest #4) vs. HOFSTRA-Coastal Athletic
ARKANSAS (West #4) vs. HAWAII-Big West
FLORIDA (South #1) vs. LEHIGH-Patriot/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M-SWAC-
GEORGIA (Midwest #8) vs. SAINT LOUIS-Atlantic 10
KENTUCKY (Midwest #7) vs. SANTA CLARA-West Coast
MISSOURI (West #10) vs. MIAMI (FL)-ACC
TENNESSEE (Midwest #6) vs. SMU-ACC/MIAMI (OH)-MAC???
TEXAS (West #11) vs. BYU-Big 12
TEXAS A&M (South #10) vs. ST MARY’S (CA)-West Coast
VANDERBILT (South #5) vs. MCNEESE STATE-Southland

Trends

– As NCAA favorites of more than 20 points, SEC teams are 13-1 Over the total (92.9%) since 2001, scoring 87.1 PPG.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Florida-Lehigh/Prairie View

–  SEC teams are on a 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run vs. ACC teams since 2003.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Missouri

–  As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5-points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 48-53 SU and 40-57-4 ATS (41.2%) in the NCAA’s since 1999.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee???

–  Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 12-30 SU and 17-23-2 ATS (42.5%) record since 2007.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

–  The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 19-26 ATS (42.2%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Alabama, Arkansas, and UNDER the total in Alabama-Hofstra and Hawaii-Arkansas

–  SEC teams are on a 7-14 ATS (33.3%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAA’s and are 11-20 ATS (35.5%) in the last 31.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Tennessee???

Southern

Teams in the First Round matchup
FURMAN (East #15) vs. CONNECTICUT-Big East 

Trends

–   SoCon teams have trended Under the total in recent NCAA’s, 12-5 (70.6%) in the last 17.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Furman-Connecticut

–  Teams from the SoCon have covered seven straight NCAA first-round games (100% ATS)!
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Furman

Southland

Teams in the First Round matchup
MCNEESE STATE (South #12) vs. VANDERBILT-SEC

Trends

–  As underdogs of 8.5 points or less (or favored), Southland Conference teams are 9-7-1 ATS (56.3%) in their last 17 NCAA tournament tries, but when a larger underdog than that, they are 0-15 SU and 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: McNeese State

–   Southland Conference teams are 13-5 Under the total (72.2%) in their last 18 NCAA tournament first-round games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in McNeese State-Vanderbilt

–  Southland Conference teams are on an amazing 17-3 Under the total (85%) surge in their last 20 NCAA tournament games vs. power conference opponents.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in McNeese State-Vanderbilt

Summit

Teams in the First Round matchup
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (East #14) vs. MICHIGAN STATE-Big Ten

Trends

–  Overall, Summit League teams are on an 0-4 SU and ATS (0%) skid in the NCAA tournament, after going 7-1-1 ATS in the prior nine tries.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST North Dakota State

–  Recognized as a high-scoring, up-tempo league, six of the last eight NCAA tourney games featuring a Summit League team went Under the total (75%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in North Dakota State-Michigan State

Sun Belt

Teams in the First Round matchup
TROY (South #13) vs. NEBRASKA-Big Ten 

Trends

–   Sun Belt teams have gone Under the total in nine of their last 10 (90%) NCAA tourney games.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: UNDER the total in Troy-Nebraska

–   As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAAs, SBC teams are on a 6-12-1 ATS (33.3%) slide since 1999, but as #13 or better, they’ve gone 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in that same span.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

–  As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (33%) slide in the NCAA’s, but when +8 or higher, they are 13-6 ATS (68.4%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

–  Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on an NCAA tourney run of 8-5 ATS (61.5%) versus those foes since 2008.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Troy

SWAC

Teams in the First Round matchup
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (South #16) vs. FLORIDA-SEC??? 

Trends

–  As NCAA tourney dogs of +26 or more, SWAC teams are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) since 2000.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Prairie View A&M???

WAC

Teams in the First Round matchup
CAL BAPTIST (East #13) vs. KANSAS-Big 12

Trends

–   WAC teams have won just three of their last 26 games in the NCAA’s since 2006, going 11-15 ATS; however, they are 6-2 ATS (75%) in their last eight.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Cal Baptist

–  Against power conference opponents in the NCAA’s, WAC teams are on a 1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS (36.8%) skid, while against fellow mid-majors, they are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) surge.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: Against Cal Baptist

–  Six of the last nine WAC first-round NCAA tourney games have gone Over the total (66.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: OVER the total in Cal Baptist-Kansas

West Coast

Teams in the First Round matchup
GONZAGA (West #3) vs. KENNESAW STATE-Conference USA
SANTA CLARA (Midwest #10) vs. KENTUCKY-SEC
ST MARY’S(CA) (South #7) vs. TEXAS A&M-SEC

Trends

–  Going into the 2026 NCAA’s, West Coast Conference teams are on a 7-15 ATS (31.8%) tourney skid.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga, Santa Clara, St Mary’s (CA)

–  West Coast Conference teams haven’t been as good as suspected as NCAA tournament underdogs, 7-25 SU and 9-23 ATS (28.1%) since 2007, including 13 straight outright losses.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Santa Clara

–  WCC teams have struggled against other non-major conference teams in NCAA tourney play, 20-9 SU but 9-20 ATS (31%) since 2004.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga

–  WCC teams are just 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games as favorites of 9.5 points or more.
Qualifying plays for 2026 NCAAT First Round: AGAINST Gonzaga

There is only one First Round game with any recent relevance in terms of head-to-head history: 

(709) SOUTH FLORIDA vs. (710) LOUISVILLE
* Favorites are on an 11-1 SU and ATS run in the USF-Louisville head-to-head series. Unders on totals have converted in the last five games.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR