On Tuesday, I started a series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the First Four game, essentially taking the legwork out of the process for readers. I followed that with a piece on Thursday for the First Round. This next piece is, of course, for the second round, and I will continue this for every successive round afterward. Hopefully, it helps you attack the tournament more successfully in 2026. Best of luck on the Saturday and Sunday games. 

Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Second Round:

Prior Tournament Game Systems

Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the Saturday & Sunday:

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2
Teams that win in the NCAA’s by scoring 88 or more points have gone 61-10 SU and 44-27 ATS (62%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by 6 points or more.
Steve’s thoughts: A big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. I would think this system would be enhanced in short turnaround games.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Michigan, Illinois, Arkansas, Florida, Purdue, Arizona

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #3
Teams that win in upset fashion in the NCAA’s by allowing 56 or fewer points have gone 28-28 SU and 38-18 ATS (67.9%) in the follow-up game since 2010.
Steve’s thoughts: Just as a big offensive outing can lift a team, so can a huge defensive effort that helped spring an upset. A 50% outright record for a team coming off an outright upset win is tremendous if you think about the chances that they would be an underdog again. These are clearly dangerous and galvanized teams.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Texas A&M

NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #4
Teams that win in the NCAA’s but are beaten by 7+ points on the point spread have rebounded nicely in the next game, 33-9 SU & 28-13-1 ATS (68.3%) since 2010.
Steve’s thoughts: Judging by the fact that these teams were able to survive underperforming efforts, they are obviously among the stronger teams in the field. There is a reason the term “survive and advance” has accompanied this tournament for many years. Don’t expect a second straight flat effort. This system went 3-1 SU and ATS in 2025.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Michigan, Duke, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Virginia

• Bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, going 29-53-1 ATS (35.4%) in moving opening lines since then. This is a change from the first round, explained perhaps in the shorter prep period for the second round. They were 2-8 ATS in 2025. The strategy…watch the consensus line sentiment and go against it.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Early line moves indicate public is backing (go AGAINST) Saint Louis, TCU, Houston, Gonzaga, Illinois, High Point, Miami, Kentucky, Iowa, Utah State, Connecticut, Alabama

• Second round Top 4 seeds that won but didn’t cover the spread in the first round are 48-17 SU and 36-28-1 ATS (56.3%) since 2013. They are also 35-27-3 Under (56.5%) the total.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Duke, Kansas, Connecticut, Michigan, Virginia

• Second round double-digit favorites are 53-2 SU and 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since 2001. Sixteen of the last 26 such games went Under (61.5%) the total with the favorites allowing just 61.2 PPG.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Houston, Arkansas, Florida, Arizona

• Second round worse-seeded teams playing as favorites have been wildly successful, 15-7 SU and ATS (68.2%) since 2002.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St John’s

• There has been a crazy trend that has developed in the second round lately with favorites in the tight -5.5 to -6.5 line range, as they boast a 55-13 SU and 46-22 ATS (67.6%) record since 1998.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Gonzaga

• The highest-totaled second round games haven’t necessarily seen the most scoring, and in fact, these games with totals of 156 or more are on a 13-6 Under the total (68.4%) run.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in Saint Louis-Michigan, High Point-Arkansas, Texas Tech-Alabama

• In second-round games featuring a mid-major team playing as a worse seed to a power conference team, the power conference teams are on a 63-11 SU and 46-27-1 ATS (63%) surge since 2013. In the opposite scenario, when the mid-major is the better-seeded team, they are on a 16-3 SU and 11-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: On these Power 5 teams: Michigan, Illinois, Arkansas, Arizona. On these mid-major teams: Gonzaga

• Over the last 25 years, there has been a clear benchmark for when heavily favored #1 seeds struggle to win ATS, and it comes at the 12-point line. In fact, in that span, #1 seeds favored by 12 or more are 25-1 SU but 11-15 ATS (42.3%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Michigan ATS

• #1 seeds are currently on a 5-14 ATS (26.3%) skid versus #8s in the second round, but are 13-8 ATS (61.9%) versus #9s in that same 11-year window.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: ON Michigan, Duke, Florida, Arizona

• Second round #2 seeds have felt the upset pressure, going just 19-26-2 ATS (42.2%) in their last 47 games. Those favored by 5 points or less are just 14-19 SU & 10-21-2 ATS (32.3%) since 2002.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Connecticut (-3.5), Houston (-10.5), Purdue (-7.5), Iowa State (-4.5)

• Second round #2 seeds are on a 15-6 Under the total (71.4%) surge.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in UCLA-Connecticut, Texas A&M-Houston, Miami-Purdue, Kentucky-Iowa State

• #3 seeds haven’t been great overall for bettors, but they have been at their best in expectedly higher scoring games (totals >=144), going 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS (65%) since 2005.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: ON Michigan State, Illinois, Gonzaga

• Nine of the last 11 second-round games featuring #3 seeds have gone Over the total (81.8%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: OVER the total in Louisville-Michigan State, VCU-Illinois, Texas-Gonzaga, Tennessee-Virginia

• Seeds #4-#6 have been stellar lately in the second round, with these spread runs entering 2024: #4’s 21-15 ATS (58.3%), #5’s 23-9 ATS (71.9%), #6’s 22-11 ATS (66.7%). Surviving the first-round upset attempt has seemingly propelled these teams to solid round two performances. Furthermore, collectively, when not playing against another seed of that range, they are 22-3 SU & 20-5 ATS (80%) since ’14!
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Seed #’s 4-6 NOT playing against another in that range are Louisville, Illinois, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Tennessee

• Second round #10 seeds are on a 5-15 SU but 12-6-2 ATS (66.7%) run since 2011
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Texas A&M

• Better-seeded teams are just 11-17 SU and ATS (39.3%) when playing as underdogs to worse-seeded teams in the second round since 2001, although Kentucky (+2.5) did upend Illinois last season.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Nebraska, Virginia, Kansas

From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Second Round games on Saturday & Sunday:

ACC

Teams in the field/First matchup
DUKE (East #1) vs. TCU-Big 12
LOUISVILLE (East #6) vs. MICHIGAN STATE-Big Ten
MIAMI (West #7) vs. PURDUE-Big Ten
VIRGINIA (Midwest #3) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC

Trends

–  Over the last four NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 37-20 SU and ATS (64.9%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Duke, Louisville, Miami, Virginia

–  By round, ACC teams have demonstrated some recent definitive runs or skids…In second-round games, ACC teams are on an incredible 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) run. In Sweet 16 games, they are 22-12 ATS (64.7%) since 2014. In the Final Four round, ACC teams are just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) in their last nine. In title games, the teams are on an 8-3 SU and ATS (72.7%) surge.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), Virginia

–   In the role of pick ’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) surge.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Louisville, Virginia

– ACC teams are 36-3 SU but 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 as double-digit tourney favorites.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Duke

– ACC teams are on a current surge of 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) in the NCAA’s versus Big 12 foes. In addition, underdogs are on an impressive 10-11 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) surge in the matchup.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Duke, but playing as -11.5 favorite

– Nineteen of the last 26 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (73.1%). Both went Under last year by over 20 points.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in Virginia-Tennessee

–  In that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup, Underdogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) surge since 2017.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Virginia

Atlantic 10

Teams in the field/First matchup
SAINT LOUIS (Midwest #9) vs. MICHIGAN-Big Ten
VA COMMONWEALTH (South #11) vs. ILLINOIS-Big Ten

Trends

–  Atlantic 10 teams have won just four of their last 16 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (25%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, VA Commonwealth

–   Favorites are on a 21-6 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Saint Louis, VA Commonwealth

Big 12

Teams in the field/First matchup
ARIZONA (West #1) vs. UTAH STATE-Mountain West
HOUSTON (South #2) vs. TEXAS A&M-SEC
IOWA ST (Midwest #2) vs. KENTUCKY-SEC
KANSAS (East #4) vs. ST JOHN’S-Big East
TCU (East #9) vs. DUKE-ACC
TEXAS TECH (Midwest #5) vs. ALABAMA-SEC

Trends

–  Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 29-38 SU and 26-40 ATS (39.4%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Kansas, Texas Tech

–  Against mid-major teams in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a 27-12 ATS (69.2%) surge.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Arizona

–  Big 12 teams are just 11-13 SU and 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in their last 24 NCAA tourney games vs the Big East.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Kansas

– Big 12 teams have lost 63 of their 79 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5-points or more and are 33-45-1 ATS (42.3%) in those games.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST TCU, Kansas

–  As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAA’s, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 37-2 SU and 26-13 ATS (66.7%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Arizona, Houston

–  In expectedly high-scoring NCAA tournament games, or those with totals >155, Big 12 teams are on a 19-8 ATS (70.3%) run.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Texas Tech, Arizona

Big East

Teams in the field/First matchup
CONNECTICUT (East #2) vs. UCLA-Big Ten
ST JOHN’S (East #5) vs. KANSAS-Big 12

Trends

–   Big East teams have also thrived in the tournament’s second round of late, going 16-7 ATS (69.6%) since 2017.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: St John’s, Connecticut

–  Top two seeded (#1s and #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in the NCAA’s since 2016.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Connecticut

– Big East teams have gone 24-8 Under the total (75%) when matched up vs. the Big Ten in the NCAA’s since 2003.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in Connecticut-UCLA

–  Favorites are 56-23 ATS (70.9%) in the last 79 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) the last three years.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: St John’s, Connecticut

Big South

Teams in the field/First matchup
HIGH POINT (West #12) vs. ARKANAS-SEC

Trends

–  Big South teams are 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since 2003, 3-9 ATS (25%) in all other seeds.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST High Point

–  Big South teams are on a 16-6 Under the total (72.7%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 56.9 PPG.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Arkansas

–   Big South teams have gone Under the total in all 11 (100%) previous NCAAT games with totals of 140 or higher.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in High Point-Arkansas

Big Ten

Teams in the field/First matchup
ILLINOIS (South #3) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH-Atlantic 10
IOWA (South #9) vs. FLORIDA-SEC
MICHIGAN (Midwest #1) vs. SAINT LOUIS-Atlantic 10
MICHIGAN STATE (East #3) vs. LOUISVILLE-ACC
NEBRASKA (South #4) vs. VANDERBILT-SEC
PURDUE (West #2) vs. MIAMI (FL)-ACC
UCLA (East #7) vs. CONNECTICUT-Big East

Trends

–  Big Ten teams are on an insane 48-21 Under the total (69.6%) run in the last four NCAA tournaments.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: UNDER the total in Illinois-VCU, Iowa-Florida, Michigan-Saint Louis, Michigan State-Louisville, Nebraska-Vanderbilt, Purdue-Miami (FL), UCLA-Connecticut

– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tourney tries.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Nebraska

–  Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 56-5 SU and 36-21-4 ATS (63.2%) since 2998, including 7-0 SU and ATS the last two years.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Michigan-Illinois

–  Big Ten teams are on a 15-13 SU & 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney, however, were 2-5 SU and ATS last year.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Iowa, Nebraska

–  For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-58 SU and 22-42 ATS (34.4%) since 1998. They were 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in this role a year ago.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Iowa

–   In tourney games versus mid-major conference foes over the last three seasons in the NCAA’s, Big Ten teams are on an 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) run. They are also 26-7 Under the total (78.8%) in their last 33 such games.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Michigan, Illinois

–  In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 27-42 SU and 28-39-2 ATS (41.8%) since 2017.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA

Mountain West

Teams in the field/First matchup
UTAH ST (West #9) vs. ARIZONA-Big 12

Trends

–   I have shared Mountain West teams’ struggles annually in the NCAA’s in recent years, as collectively they are just 32-67 SU and 32-64-3 ATS (33.3%) since 2001.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Utah State

–  As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 12-48 SU and 16-41-3 ATS (28.1%) since 2001.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Utah State

–   Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAA’s since 2000, 14-55 SU and 18-49-2 ATS (26.9%).
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Utah State

–  As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAA’s, MWC teams are on a brutal 7-41 SU and 10-36-2 ATS (21.7%) since 2003!
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Utah State

SEC

Teams in the field/First matchup
ALABAMA (Midwest #4) vs. TEXAS TECH-Big 12
ARKANSAS (West #4) vs. HIGH POINT-Big South
FLORIDA (South #1) vs. IOWA-Big Ten
KENTUCKY (Midwest #7) vs. IOWA STATE-Big 12
TENNESSEE (Midwest #6) vs. VIRGINIA-ACC
TEXAS (West #11) vs. GONZAGA-West Coast
TEXAS A&M (South #10) vs. HOUSTON-Big 12
VANDERBILT (South #5) vs. NEBRASKA-Big Ten

Trends

–  SEC teams are on a 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run vs. ACC teams since 2003.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: Tennessee

–  As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 48-53 SU and 40-57-4 ATS (41.2%) in the NCAA’s since 1999.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

–  Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 12-30 SU and 17-23-2 ATS (42.5%) record since 2007.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Texas, Texas A&M

– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 19-26 ATS (42.2%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Alabama, Arkansas

–  SEC teams are on a 7-14 ATS (33.3%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAA’s and are 11-20 ATS (35.5%) in the last 31.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Arkansas, Texas

–  In lower totaled NCAAT games featuring the SEC, or those less than 140, they are just 22-39 ATS (36.2%) since 2014.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Tennessee

West Coast

Teams in the field/First matchup
GONZAGA (West #3) vs. TEXAS-SEC

Trends

– Going into the 2026 NCAA’s, West Coast Conference teams are on a 7-15 ATS (31.8%) tourney skid.
Qualifying Games for 2026 NCAAT Second Round: AGAINST Gonzaga

There are only three second-round games with any recent relevance in terms of head-to-head history: 

(783) TEXAS A&M vs. (784) HOUSTON
* TEXAS A&M has gone 5-0 ATS versus Houston, since 2004, most recent meeting was in 2024 NCAAT, a 100-95 Houston (-8.5) win

(787) TEXAS vs. (788) GONZAGA
* Favorites and Over the total are both 4-0 ATS in the last four games of the Texas-Gonzaga head-to-head series 

(815) TENNESSEE vs. (816) VIRGINIA
* Favorites have swept the last four games SU and ATS in the Tennessee-Virginia set

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