College Basketball Bets
A Friday slate of 23 games takes us into the weekend, as we’ve got a few really interesting matchups, including a terrific mid-major battle between Belmont and UC Irvine. We have conference clashes in the Big East and MAC, as well as the continuation of the Chris Paul HBCU Classic. It’s a small, but pretty mighty college basketball card.
We’ve got another 11 a.m. ET game, a trio of tips at 5 p.m. ET and one game at 6:30 before the rest of the slate goes off at more traditional times. There isn’t a whole lot of in-between tonight, as we have a lot of closely-lined games and also a lot of double-digit favorites of 15+ points, so there’s potential for some drama, but also some blowouts.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Tarleton State Texans (-14.5, 147.5)
8 p.m. ET
A deep dive here for a SWAC vs. WAC matchup between Florida A&M and Tarleton State. The Rattlers actually wound up being a pretty good bet in conference play last season, as head coach Patrick Crarey did some really good things with his roster. Unfortunately, he’s now the head coach at Grambling and first-time college head coach Charlie Ward (yes, that Charlie Ward) has taken up his role with the Ramblers.
The Rattlers will probably get better as the season goes along, but right now, they have a lot of issues on both ends of the floor and I think they’ll be exposed here against Tarleton State. For starters, the Rattlers have allowed a 48% shot share on Close Twos compared to a 33.9% shot share against for the Texans. According to CBB Analytics, the Texans rank in the 87th percentile in percentage of points in the paint over their last five games and rank in the 88th percentile in paint points per game. They’re getting better about getting the ball inside.
For the full season, Tarleton ranks in the 55th percentile in percentage of points in the paint, but the full season includes paycheck games against teams like SMU, LSU, Baylor, and Cincinnati, where it’s much harder to get inside and score. Teams that get inside a lot get fouled a lot and the Texans are shooting 77.9% at the free throw line.
Ward is trying to get his team to push the pace, but that comes at a cost, as they have a 22% TO% on offense. Tarleton State is fifth in the nation in TO% at 23.7% and ranks in the 99th percentile per CBB Analytics in points off turnovers per game.
In an uptempo game with Tarleton State at home, I like them to cover this big number.
Pick: Tarleton State -14.5 (-110)
Florida Atlantic Owls at Saint Mary’s Gaels (-13.5, 145.5)
10 p.m. ET
The trek from Boca Raton to Moraga is a long one, but John Jakus’ team has the chance to impress tonight against Saint Mary’s. Florida Atlantic hasn’t been challenged a ton with their 206th-ranked strength of schedule per Torvik, but this is a Quadrant 1-A game and a good showing in this one would be very important going forward.
Saint Mary’s has played a top-50 schedule per Torvik, but we haven’t seen a line movement here, despite the big SOS discrepancy. That’s a pretty good context clue for me, as we’re seeing so many SOS-based line moves in the betting market. A big reason why is because we don’t know the status of Mikey Lewis, who only played nine minutes in the 68-67 loss to Boise State last time out due to a foot injury. With nine days until conference play begins, Randy Bennett may just opt to hold him out.
Lewis is shooting 46% from 3 if that is the case. We’ll see if he can go or not. Even if he can, I think this game will be played to a slow pace. FAU already has a game against George Mason this season that was played to 59 possessions. They just played a super fast game against Albany with 81 possessions, but that’s not the way that Jakus really wants to play. Their only other games with 70+ possessions have been against lower-division teams and then an overtime game to open the season against Boston College.
Saint Mary’s is deliberate and they’ve probably even played a little bit faster than they’ve wanted to this season. This Bennett team sits 245th in adjusted tempo per Torvik. The last time he was higher than 335th in Torvik’s tempo rankings was the 2014-15 season when they were 264th. I feel like this game will be played slowly enough for Florida Atlantic to stay within the number and I wouldn’t be surprised if they shoot well from 3 in this road test.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +13.5 (-108)
