College Basketball Bets
We have 18 games on the college basketball card for Friday, which is the calm before the storm with well over 100 games on the docket for Saturday. Even though tonight is light on games, Gonzaga vs. Kentucky is one hell of a game and Cincinnati vs. Xavier is a crosstown rivalry, so that’s going to be a game with quite an atmosphere.
At least tonight is a good night for variety with a lot of conferences on the floor, including conference games in the MAAC and Southland. Of tonight’s 18 games, 16 of them are at 7 p.m. ET or 7:30 p.m. ET, so it shouldn’t be a late night for college hoops fans or bettors sweating the games.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Mercyhurst Lakers at Lafayette Leopards (-1.5, 132.5)
7 p.m. ET
We’re deep down the board for this first one between Mercyhurst and Lafayette. The Lakers head across the state from Erie to Easton, which is on the PA/NJ border. Mercyhurst was actually a huge surprise last season in their first as a Division I school, going 15-16 overall and 9-7 in NEC play.
Unfortunately, Aidan Reichert and Jeff Planutis left, along with point guard Shemar Rathan-Mayes. A lot of new faces are being asked to play big minutes for the Lakers and they have struggled badly to make shots. Both of these teams have, actually, but they have played strong defense, sitting 82nd in eFG% on the season.
This is a shot selection and negative regression handicap for me on the Leopards. Let’s start with how the eFG% numbers are so good for Mercyhurst because opponents are only shooting 30.1% from 3. Maybe that continues, maybe it doesn’t, but Gary Manchel’s team was 291st in 3P% defense last season. As a team with limited NIL funds, a lot of reserves or lesser-used starters are playing bigger roles, so it’s not like there’s been a big infusion of talent or length.
Lafayette has a 41.5% shot share on Close Twos, 9% higher than Mercyhurst’s. This is a Lakers team shooting just 28.6% from 3 and they take too many mid-range jumpers for my liking. There’s also a chance that Mercyhurst is without top rebounder and one of last season’s holdovers in Mykolaus Ivanauskas, who missed the last game against West Virginia. Finding injury info on these really small schools is so tough, but he did miss the last game, so obviously there’s a chance of something lingering.
Lastly, Mercyhurst is 324th in FT Rate on offense and 359th in FT Rate, so they don’t get to the line and have fouled a lot this season. That’s partially because they’ve trailed a lot against better teams, but also a byproduct of their way of playing defense, which is a higher risk-reward thing.
Lafayette has lost to teams like Stonehill and Le Moyne, who are rated around where Mercyhurst is, but the market is on the Leopards here in a game where only sharper bettors get involved on overnight lines. That’s a good sign as well.
Pick: Lafayette -1.5 (-115)
Canisius Golden Griffins at Saint Peter’s Peacocks (-9.5, 130.5)
7 p.m. ET
Another deep cut here, this one from the MAAC as Canisius and Saint Peter’s square off. We’ve seen a pretty heavy move on Saint Peter’s in this one for a few reasons. The first is that the Peacocks have a 22.4% TO% on defense that ranks 17th in the nation and Canisius has not taken care of the ball at all with a 21.6% TO%. They are 338th per Torvik in TO% on offense and 341st in TO% on defense. Saint Peter’s is also the far better team on the offensive glass, so the expectation here is for the Peacocks to win the possession battle.
I’m fine with that with this play on the Under. Snails would laugh at these two teams as they passed them in a race, as the Peacocks are 331st in adjusted tempo per Torvik and the Golden Griffins are 345th. If Saint Peter’s does win the possession fight, they’re 353rd in the nation in 2P% at 42.4% and 286th in 3P% at 29.9%.
Canisius does everything that they can to keep teams away from the rim. They have a 29.9% shot share against on Close Twos, while pushing opponents out to the perimeter with a 49.2% 3P Rate. They’ve actually held opponents to just 30.7% on 3s, too, so second-year head coach Jim Christian has at least made that adjustment for a program that hasn’t been any good in forever.
Another reason for the line move is that the Peacocks have also played the tougher strength of schedule. Given that Canisius has played such a poor list of opponents, I would think there’s a chance that the few things they do well on offense will not really come to the forefront in this type of game.
Expect an ugly one here in the MAAC opener for both teams.
Pick: Under 130.5 (-108)
