College Basketball Bets
Nice, round numbers are fun and we have 25 college basketball games on Friday, so a total of 50 teams will hit the court. We do have quite a few tip-off time and day changes thanks to Winter Storm Fern, as we have a Noon game, four games at 1 p.m. ET, another at 2 p.m. and then another at 3 p.m. The majority of the schedule is still taking place in the evening, but some teams have definitely had their plans altered. Shout-out to @RoccoMiller8 on X for keeping up with all of them.
Keep an eye out for teams that are dealing with some travel troubles or have had their schedules moved around as a result of the weather. Even if it doesn’t lead to a bad spot now, a rescheduled game could be slotted into a rather inconvenient place at some point. Hopefully we can find those as they pop up.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Wagner Seahawks at Le Moyne Dolphins (-8.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Dolphins of Syracuse take on the more appropriately named Seahawks of Staten Island in this Northeast Conference matchup. So far in conference play, Wagner is shooting 40.2% from 3, so that’s good. They’re also 1-5, which is not good, and I certainly wouldn’t expect them to be able to continue shooting at that sort of clip. The Seahawks are only shooting 47.5% on 2s and even with that 40.2% success rate on triple tries, opponents are shooting better at 41.4% from 3.
So, this is a team that has the potential to get significantly worse as we move forward here. Not to mention, the roster’s been a revolving door of late. Sam Smith tore his ACL in mid-December and is out for the season. One of the team’s better rebounders, Zavier Fitch, has missed three games in a row. Second-leading scorer Jaden Baker missed the last game after scoring 18 points two games ago. Travis Gray, who had 17 in the team’s lone NEC win over Chicago State, has missed the last two games.
Wagner’s painfully slow tempo has allowed them to keep a lot of games close, as their biggest loss in conference play is nine points to Stonehill. However, the teams that they’ve faced ranked 345th, 354th, 281st, 335th, and 337th, along with the lone win over 350th-ranked Chicago State. Le Moyne is the second-highest rated team in the conference at 256th per Torvik behind LIU, who Wagner faces on Sunday, weather permitting.
Le Moyne is three up and two down in league play, going a combined 9-of-47 from 3 in their two losses. When they’ve had a decent shooting night, they’ve taken care of their affairs. Given how poor Wagner is defensively on the perimeter, the Dolphins should be okay this evening. Le Moyne is also first in adjusted defensive efficiency, first in eFG% defense, first in 3P% defense, and first in 2P% defense in conference games. They’re also first in 2P% offense.
It should be a good spot and a good matchup for the Dolphins, who have had a few days to come down from beating LIU at home on Monday, whereas Wagner is playing a third straight roadie.
Pick: Le Moyne -8.5
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Southern Indiana Screamin’ Eagles (-6, 134)
8:30 p.m. ET
Note: Line from Circa Sports; DraftKings did not have game posted at time of publish
This is one of the most unique spots you will find this college basketball season. Due to the winter storm, this is a back-to-back for both teams. Western Illinois played at Morehead State last night and lost 71-66. Southern Indiana played at home and lost 59-51 in overtime to Eastern Illinois, scoring just 34 points on shots from the floor. One-third of the Screamin’ Eagles’ points came at the free throw line.
These teams are a combined 1-17 in conference play and 8-31 overall, so we’re talking about two very, very bad basketball teams. Southern Indiana’s the better team by virtue of their defensive numbers, but both teams are just atrocious on offense. Two of the four wins for each team are against lower-division opponents.
It’s hard for me to make a metrics-based case here for Western Illinois. And the situation looks bad for them, but also, this is kind of a galvanizing thing for a bad team, right? A chance to rally together under some tough circumstances and not let this whirlwind road trip be all for naught.
Meanwhile, again, Southern Indiana scored 34 points from the floor against Eastern Illinois. They were 14-of-57 shooting. At home. They scored all of one point in overtime. It is a chance at a win and maybe the spot helps, but this is where the line would’ve been based on all the projection sites anyway. I just don’t think they deserve to be favored by this much over any Division I team.
Pick: Western Illinois +6
