College Basketball Bets
We’ve got 52 college basketball games on the docket for Black Friday, many of them in neutral settings, as those early-season MTEs roll on. With most people off for the day after the holiday, basketball started bright and early and will run all the way until we get a chase game in Hawaii at the Stan Sheriff Center.
As usual, I’ll be looking down the board chronologically in hopes of providing readers with as much lead time as possible, especially with a bit of a slow start to my day. It cuts down the card and may cut down the volume, but it’s only fair.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
SMU Mustangs (-1.5, 163.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
7 p.m. ET
A 6 p.m. local time matchup in Starkvegas between SMU and Mississippi State on Egg Bowl Friday seems like an interesting battle. We’ll have to wait and see what the atmosphere looks like for this one, as a lot of students probably went home for the holiday, but some also stuck around for the early rivalry game on the gridiron. We’ll see if they have it in them to stay around and watch some hoops.
SMU is off to a 7-0 start this season, but this will be their first game away from home. And not even just outside of Dallas or outside of Texas, but literally away from their home venue. They’ve played one top-100 opponent in that span (Butler) and won that game 87-85. I could see why the expectation for this one is a high-scoring affair, but I disagree.
Obviously it’s a different shooting backdrop for SMU now, so that’s step one. This is a team shooting 37.4% from 3, but they have the 332nd-ranked 3P Rate in the nation. They’re also stepping up in class against a better defensive team than they’ve seen in just about any game thus far.
Step two is that the Mustangs have only allowed a 31.7% shot share on Close Twos and Mississippi State only has a 31% shot share on offense in that department. But, the Bulldogs also push teams away from the rim, posting a 34.7% shot share against on defense. I don’t think we’ll get a large number of high-percentage looks right next to the basket.
The Bulldogs are shooting 33.1% from 3, but SMU has only allowed opponents to shoot 29.6%. Again, it is a step up in class relative to their other opponents, but still. Remember that I think mid-range jumpers are bad. They’re low-percentage shots from a little bit of distance that don’t carry the same reward as shooting a 3. SMU is 283rd in the nation in shot share on Farther Twos per Torvik and Mississippi State is 270th. So, I’m thinking we get some bad selection here.
Pick: SMU/Mississippi State Under 163.5
BYU Cougars (-9.5, 151.5) vs. Dayton Flyers
9:30 p.m. ET
A back-to-back here for the Cougars and Flyers down in Kissimmee, FL, as BYU beat Miami by 10 last night and Dayton bested Georgetown in overtime. It was a good win for the Flyers, who have only played three games against teams ranked in the top 80 per Torvik and nobody higher than 62 at the time that they played.
Meanwhile, BYU has already played against four top-42 teams, with their lone loss coming to UConn by two points in a neutral setting. In the games that they’ve played against real teams, Dayton is shooting 44-of-83 on Close Two shot attempts, well below their full-season number of 63.3%. Add to that how BYU is holding opponents to just a 31.8% shot share and I think that’s going to push Dayton out into shooting more jumpers.
Thus far, the Flyers are only shooting 31.9% from 3 and 34% on mid-range jumpers. They’re not shooting the ball very well and this game is also in a neutral setting, so I feel like that will make it that much more difficult.
My fear with this number is that Dayton is usually a pretty stout defensive team, but even against a weaker schedule, opponents are shooting 37.7% from 3 against them. Compare that to BYU holding teams to just 29.3%. I think this is a real wake-up call game for Dayton against a far superior opponent.
Pick: BYU -9.5 (-115)
