College Basketball Bets
Enjoy today, college basketball fans. We’ve got 42 games on the slate before just 11 tomorrow and then one on Saturday, as the teams take a break for Christmas. Tonight’s card has some notable teams in significant favorite roles, but not much else in terms of mass appeal. Still, if there are games, there are going to be betting opportunities and that’s appealing in and of itself.
We have some lunchtime starts and some other early matchups, but my focus is on the night games and the majority of the card, which starts at 7 p.m. ET or later.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
East Carolina Pirates at North Carolina Tar Heels (-27.5, 144.5)
8 p.m. ET
We’ve got a Little Brother vs. Big Brother game here, as East Carolina heads from Greenville to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina. These in-state foes are both playing their final games before the holiday break, a good chance for ECU to regroup and a good chance for UNC to get ready for ACC play.
The Tar Heels played Ohio State on Saturday in a thriller at the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta. North Carolina let a big lead slip away before a dunk with seven seconds left gave them a 71-70 lead that held up during a frantic final couple of seconds. After the excitement of that neutral-site tilt, the Tar Heels are back on campus virtually by themselves and they’ll need to bring their own energy to the Dean Dome tonight.
Statistically, I’ll admit that things don’t look good for the Pirates. They do get to the rim at a pretty decent rate and shouldn’t give up too many possessions to a UNC defense that ranks 353rd in the nation in TO% at just 13.2%. East Carolina should at least have the chance to get some shots up or will at least have to try and move the ball around in the offensive half-court, which helps to burn up valuable clock.
Per CBB Analytics, UNC only ranks in the 10th percentile in percentage of points on fast breaks over the last five games. That could certainly rise here, but they’re not really getting out and running much. They rank in the 35th percentile in pace and 8th percentile over the last five games, while ECU is in the 47th percentile for the season, but the 15th percentile over their last five games.
With what may be a slower-paced game than expected and UNC in a really tough situational spot with a quick turnaround and not nearly the home court advantage that they are used to, I think the Pirates can keep this within the number.
Pick: East Carolina +27.5 (-115)
Sacramento State Hornets at Cal State Northridge Matadors (-10.5, 163.5)
10 p.m. ET
Some offensive fireworks are expected here between Sac State and Cal State Northridge, as we’ve seen this total get bet up heavily since open. It only makes sense that the Matadors have become a bigger favorite in this game, as they are the more efficient offensive team and should have a big shot selection advantage here.
Mike Bibby’s first season at Sac State hasn’t gone overly well, as three of their four wins have come against lower-division teams. There are a lot of reasons why the Hornets are having issues. The first is a 42.3% eFG% on offense that ranks 359th in the nation. They’re shooting just 42.2% on 2s and 28.3% on 3s, so they’re not really making any shots, regardless of location on the floor.
Andy Newman’s Matadors get to the rim at a high rate and push teams out into a lot of long jumpers. Their shot share on Close Twos of 45.7% ranks 34th in the country. Sac State is 293rd in that department. Defensively, CSUN is 54th in shot share against on Close Twos, while SSU is 220th. So, the Matadors should find a lot of success getting inside and win the paint points battle. Sac State ranks in the 14th percentile in Paint Points Per Game according to CBB Analytics, while CSUN ranks in the 79th percentile.
This is projected to be a pretty up-tempo game and the Hornets have that terrible 3P% against a Matadors team that has a 48.5% 3P Rate against. If the Hornets can shoot well from 3 on the road here, maybe they can hang in this one. But, I think they’re going to face foul trouble and also get pressed into a lot of bad shots given the composition of their roster.
CSUN is only shooting 31.6% from 3, but they have shot nearly 35% in their three home games against D-I opponents. They’ve been on the road a good amount, but get a chance at home here.
Pick: Cal State Northridge -10.5 (-105)
San Diego Toreros at Washington Huskies (-19.5, 158.5)
10 p.m. ET
Steve Lavin takes his team north to Seattle to take on the Huskies, as the Toreros face long odds to extend their two-game winning streak, but they’ve had their two best offensive performances of the season in those games. That might be all it takes here as a big underdog with a lofty total.
Washington has had a rough start to the season from a health standpoint, as Danny Sprinkle really hasn’t been able to have his entire roster together all at once. Now Wesley Yates III is hurt and he leads the team in percentage of minutes played. Star freshman Hannes Steinbach missed three games around Thanksgiving, though he’s back now and he’s putting up 17 and 12 a game. Desmond Claude missed the first four games of the season. It’s just been tough to get everybody going in the same direction.
Now they have to adjust to the loss of Yates, so it’s just another hurdle for the Huskies and you have to think that they’re looking ahead to a week off, as the guys who have consistently stayed healthy have shouldered a lot of the load. Alaska Airlines Arena will probably be pretty empty for this one and the Huskies are a limited offensive team, ranking just 208th in eFG% thus far.
San Diego is bad defensively and bad on the defensive glass, but it does seem like Lavin may be getting his lineup and his rotations down, as playing time is dwindling for some and increasing for others.
Ultimately, this is just a spot to me where I don’t know what we get out of Washington, who has already played two conference games against former Pac-12 rivals and they just played a crosstown game against Seattle and lost. Utah is on the horizon next Monday and then the grind of the Big Ten. With a roster that has gone through it a bit thus far, this is a “win and get out” game in my estimation.
Pick: San Diego +19.5 (-108)
