College Basketball Bets
It is time to get locked in on college basketball again. After two light weeks due to exams and holidays, we’ve got a lot of games this week, beginning with 58 on Monday. We don’t have any marquee games that are going to grab a ton of headlines, but we have a lot of games to choose from and most of them are late afternoon or later. The first tip goes off at 1 p.m. ET and the last tip is in Seattle at 11 p.m. ET between old Pac-12 rivals Utah and Washington.
A lot of teams will be shaking off some rust this week, not having played in a while, so that’s something that you may want to factor into your handicapping. Also, that means that some players that were dealing with some nagging injuries and ailments may be back with their respective teams and that will make a big difference in some instances.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Iona Gaels (-4.5, 155.5) at Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
7 p.m. ET
MAAC play began during the first week of December, but the teams will pick it back up this week, including this matchup between Iona and Mount St. Mary’s. The Mountaineers dropped their first two conference tilts to Sacred Heart and Marist, so they’re already playing catch-up in the one-bid league. Iona split their pair of games with a home loss to Quinnipiac and a road win over Sacred Heart.
The biggest angle in this game for me is that Luke McEldon is not listed in the projected starting lineup for Mount St. Mary’s in their official game notes. Our friends at CBB Analytics have a robust set of tools, but one of the best is the player On/Off stats. Mount St. Mary’s isn’t a very efficient team anyway, as they rank in the 24th percentile in Net Rating with McEldon on the floor at -12.6, but they are -19.1 with him off the floor (McEldon On/Off Stats).
Without McEldon, the team’s Defensive Rebounding Percentage drops from 76.7% to 65.1%. They don’t get nearly as many blocks and simply have drops across the board in just about every area. The 6-foot-10 McEldon missed the last D-I game against Drexel and the Dragons posted a 62.2% eFG%. The only team to do better than that against The Mount was Ohio State, who was 41-of-64 from the floor.
Iona has a shot share on Close Twos over 40% and a Rim & 3 Rate over 80%. They’re a team that has really struggled to get offensive rebounds, but McEldon’s absence, or at least his limitations, could help in that department. The Mount also ranks 364th in TO% and 315th in TO% on defense, so Iona should have extra possessions here. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see The Mount interested in playing faster without their big man since they’ll have a smaller lineup, which would be an advantage to the Gaels.
Pick: Iona -4.5 (-110)
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Milwaukee Panthers (-1.5, 156.5)
8 p.m. ET
The iconic Spiderman meme in basketball form comes here between Purdue Fort Wayne and Milwaukee. Both Jon Coffman and Bart Lundy have had similar teams over the years. They’ve been extremely effective at getting to the rim, love to fire away from 3, and play above the national average from a tempo standpoint.
Milwaukee has allowed opponents to shoot 39.5% from 3 and IPFW has allowed opponents to shoot 39%. Both teams have struggled to make 3s thus far, but neither team has defended the arc effectively and it should be a good night for shooters as a result. This season’s Panthers team has had a more difficult time getting to the rim and finishing at the rim, but the Mastodons have allowed a 66% FG% at the tin thus far.
IPFW’s high TO% on defense should help kick up the pace of this game a bit and Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding prowess should help them get some second-chance points and free throw attempts. The metrics for both teams have been altered a bit by some of their premier games.
Milwaukee is missing Seth Hubbard, who averaged 16.5 PPG until being lost with a season-ending injury. In the last two games without him, the Panthers have 1.282 and 1.254 points per possession while playing games to 69 and 65 possessions. Even without Hubbard, Lundy has found scoring and this game should tick up from a pace standpoint.
Pick: Over 156.5 (-112)
Utah Utes at Washington Huskies (-11.5, 156.5)
11 p.m. ET
Utah and Washington have had some battles in the past, but now that they reside in the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively, this is a non-conference clash in the PNW. There have been some major ups and downs for first-year head coach Alex Jensen, as his Utes are 8-4, but started 5-0 and have gone 3-4 since. The 49-year-old Utah standout spent a lot of time as an assistant coach in the NBA before getting hired at his alma mater.
As you would expect, there is a lot of NBA influence to what his team is trying to do and shot selection is a big part of that. The Utes own an 85% Rim & 3 Rate this season, as they’ve avoided mid-range jumpers as often as possible, opting instead for higher-percentage looks at the rim or from beyond the arc. That offensive strategy has worked out really well, as they are shooting 62.9% on Close Twos and 36.8% from 3 per Torvik.
They rank 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 56th in eFG%. They’ve also tried to do everything that they can to run teams off the 3-point line, posting the 27th-best 3P Rate against at just 33.3%.
Washington has a proven college coach in Danny Sprinkle and the Huskies have been winning with defense, as they come in 53rd in eFG% defense and have been one of the best rebounding teams on both ends of the floor. But, they struggle badly on offense and shot selection has a lot to do with it. By Close Twos, Farther Twos, and 3s per Torvik, Washington is at 36.5%, 31.1%, and 32.4%, respectively. It’s a tough path to making a lot of shots and maximizing possessions.
I think it also makes it tough to blow out a team like Utah. While the Huskies are a top-tier defense, they’ve been able to funnel a lot of teams to the mid-range and get them away from the rim. That will be a lot tougher against Utah. I also like that a first-year bench boss like Jensen has had some time to work with his team with more practices and fewer games of late.
Pick: Utah +11.5 (-118)
