College Basketball Bets
A light start to the work week in college basketball, as there are only nine games on the schedule. Most eyes will be on the ESPN doubleheader with Louisville vs. North Carolina and Houston vs. Kansas. My eyes were on those two games with the linked previews, but there are seven other games worth looking at to find a best bet or two for Feb. 23.
This is a bit of an odd Monday in that we usually have a few more games and conferences than this, but we only have the ACC, Big 12, Southland, and one lone game out of the SWAC. Something to keep in mind, though, is that our college basketball content continues to ramp up, as we’ll be previewing all 31 conference tournaments, starting this weekend.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Nicholls Colonels at Lamar Cardinals (-2.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
Tevon Saddler has his Colonels playing well at the right time. Nicholls came up just three points short against Stephen F. Austin last time out, but they had a 66.3% eFG% in the game, going 15-of-26 on 2s and 13-of-26 on 3s. They didn’t come away with the win, but it was another really strong offensive showing against arguably the best team in the conference.
Lamar beat Nicholls 90-80 earlier this season in a game where the Cardinals got pretty fortunate on offense in my opinion. They were 11-of-19 on mid-range jumpers and 10-of-16 on 3s. In Southland Conference play, Lamar is only shooting 46.9% on 2s. That ranks 11th out of the 12 teams. They are fifth in 3P% at 35.6%, but 10-of-16 is a good bit higher than that.
Nicholls is slightly better at shooting 3s and their shot selection is more in line with what I like. Lamar takes a lot of mid-range jumpers, while Nicholls has a Rim & 3 Rate upwards of 84%. The Colonels are also much better in TO% on both offense and defense, yet in the first meeting, they were only +2 in the TO department.
The Colonels also didn’t have Jalik Dunkley in the first meeting. He’s the leading scorer (13.5 PPG) and leading rebounder (7.0 RPG). He only played 18 minutes and wasn’t in foul trouble in the SFA loss, so there is a chance that maybe he’s hurt or something else is going on. I searched extensively this morning and couldn’t find anything. Hopefully he plays, but even if he doesn’t, there are enough regression signs from the first meeting between these two teams for me to back the Colonels and I also really like what they’ve done over the last several games, especially on offense.
Pick: Nicholls +2.5
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Grambling State Tigers (-17.5, 135.5)
8 p.m. ET
Mississippi Valley State finally won a game against men. The Delta Devils beat the Mississippi University for Women in their second game of the season and then lost 25 straight before knocking off Texas Southern last time out in the final home game of the season. The last four games for MVSU are on the road, including this visit to Grambling.
Obviously Grambling is the better team and this is a pretty big line, but the Tigers have not been playing well offensively for a while now. They’ve scored .978 or lower points per possession in five of their last six games. While the Delta Devils are terrible, those are some really bad offensive numbers for Grambling of late. They should improve given the matchup, but in a game likely to only be played to around 66 or 67 possessions, it’s a tall ask to cover this kind of number with a lackluster offensive effort.
After starting 2-0 in league play, Grambling has lost eight of 11. They are 11th in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency. While they are No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, they have had some issues defending the 3-point line. If MVSU can hit a few 3s here and there, that will also help the cause with what I mentioned above. This should be a game with a below average tempo and Grambling is unlikely to shoot well.
And, hey, the Delta Devils may have a little more pep in their step off of a win. If nothing else, a renewed sense of purpose can help them keep this close.
Pick: MIssissippi Valley State +17.5
