College Basketball Bets
It is a light night in the college basketball world with 19 games and only a couple that really stand out, as we have a trio of Big Ten tilts on the card, including the game of the night between Nebraska and Ohio State after the Cornhuskers’ huge win and court storm against Michigan State. Other than that, we get a lot of small-conference action and that’ll be the case a lot of the time on Mondays with the Southland and SWAC regularly playing on that day.
Along with those three conferences, we also have the CAA, Ivy League, and Horizon League represented on the slate. Our first tip is at 5 p.m. ET and our last tip is at 8:30 p.m. ET, as Michigan State plays a little bit later to account for TV and for USC visiting East Lansing from Los Angeles.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 142.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
7 p.m. ET
One of those Big Ten games is on my radar and it is Oregon vs. Rutgers, as the Ducks look for a two-game sweep on the Atlantic coast. Oregon beat Maryland by 10 last Friday in a game where I backed the Ducks as a short road favorite. Dana Altman’s team held the Terps to .833 points per possession, plenty good enough on something of an off night offensively. Oregon had scored at least 1.038 PPP in each of the previous six games, but only had .987 in that game in College Park.
Now that they’ve been in the Eastern Time Zone for a few days, I figure an offensive uptick should happen tonight. Steve Pikiell is still trying to find the right roster and rotations to get back to what he does best and that is coach defense. The Scarlet Knights are 179th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik and have exacerbated their defensive shortcomings by being 321st in eFG% offense. Rutgers is only shooting 45% on 2s.
Oregon has big shooting advantages all over the floor in this game and also some big size edges with 7-footer Nate Bittle and 6-foot-10 Kwame Evans Jr., who had 12 points and eight rebounds on Friday after returning from a brief absence. Emmanuel Ogbole and Bryce Dortch are the guys tasked with stopping Bittle and Evans, but Rutgers lacks interior depth in a big way beyond them, so any foul trouble would be tough to overcome.
Neither team scores a lot in the paint, but Oregon is getting into that more frequently now and ranks in the 71st percentile in Paint Points Per Game over their last five, whereas Rutgers ranks in the 3rd percentile in that department over the last five and 8th percentile for the season per CBB Analytics. When you consider that Oregon is dramatically better at shooting 3s, that’s another big edge.
Pick: Oregon -5.5 (-115)
Texas Southern Tigers at Grambling State Tigers (-4.5, 145.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Tigers are assured a victory tonight in this matchup between Texas Southern and Grambling State. We’ll have to see which Tigers emerge victorious, but we have seen a line move on the Texas Southern side here. They have played the 66th-ranked schedule per Torvik and Grambling has played the 237th-ranked schedule, so that’s a big part of the equation in this one.
I really do like Grambling head coach Patrick Crarey II, who was at Florida A&M last season. During SWAC play, the Rattlers were second in adjusted offensive efficiency and first in eFG%, 3P%, and 2P%. They weren’t a great defensive team, but Crarey’s offensive sets in his first season paid quick dividends and I could see the same at Grambling. Even with a five-game losing streak during a long road trip, this is a Grambling team that has scored over a point per possession in all of their games but one against teams ranked outside the top 150.
Texas Southern is a poor team on defense and not a very good offensive one either, though that should change a little bit now that conference play has begun. Texas Southern always schedules up in the non-con to fund athletic department endeavors, but longtime head coach Johnny Jones has gotten this team into the NCAA Tournament three times and they’ve been 12-6 in league play each of the last two seasons.
Both teams get to the free throw line a lot and also foul a lot. Grambling is fifth in FT Rate and Texas Southern is 68th, while the teams rank 325th and 357th, respectively, in FT Rate on defense.
Lastly, Randarius Jones missed three games and then returned to play just eight minutes last game against Prairie View A&M. Without Jones on the floor, Grambling is playing at a faster pace (+3.7) and has a higher Offensive Rating (+1) per CBB Analytics. I couldn’t find info if he’s out tonight or not, but something is still going on with him and Grambling could play closer to Texas Southern’s pace here, which is always quick under Jones.
Pick: Over 145.5 (-108)
