College Basketball Bets
Usually Fridays represent the calm before the storm in college basketball, but this week, that day is Monday. We’ve got 14 games today from the WCC, CAA, Southland, Big Sky, Horizon, SoCon, and SWAC, as the major conferences begin their conference tournaments on Tuesday and Wednesday. The volume is winding down to be sure, but we’ve had basketball all day long for the last week and will have even more of it moving forward.
Selection Sunday is this upcoming Sunday and our March Mania College Basketball Betting Guide will be out a week from today, so it’s going to be very busy here at VSiN with college hoops coverage and we’re happy to have you along for the ride.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Wright State Raiders (-1.5, 156.5)
7 p.m. ET
The betting market has spoken on the first of two semifinals in the Horizon League and it seems to be saying that Wright State is the “wright” side in this one. The Raiders have moved into a favorite role here against Northern Kentucky, a team that they swept in the regular season. Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as Wright State trailed by 20 in the first half in the second game against the Norse and even trailed by 13 with under six minutes left before winning at the buzzer.
In the two games, Wright State had 26 offensive rebounds to 17 for NKU. Both teams had no issues getting to the rim on offense, but the Raiders had 1.314 and 1.251 points per possession. Those were two above average performances for the best team in the conference by adjusted offensive efficiency. NKU was just seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency, but did lead the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even with the conference’s best defense on paper, the Norse gave up a ton of points and Wright State got basically everything they wanted on offense.
I’m not sure this game will go any differently. NKU didn’t spend a ton of energy yesterday, but they did have to play Green Bay and won by 20. Wright State hasn’t played since Wednesday when they crushed Cleveland State. So the Raiders should have the fresher legs here. Maybe it helps NKU that they got to play a game on this floor and maybe they do lead early, but Wright State’s already come back on them once before. Also, for the best defense in the conference to have allowed 1.151 and 1.152 PPP in two conference tourney games seems encouraging for Wright State based on what they’ve done in the two meetings thus far.
Lastly, Wright State is a borderline top-30 team in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating, so they’ve played very well in road/neutral settings this season. That’s a byproduct of their shot selection, which includes the 24th-highest shot share on Close Twos.
Pick: Wright State -1.5
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Troy Trojans (-6.5, 149.5)
7 p.m. ET
One of the best conference tournament stories has been from the Sun Belt, where Georgia Southern has won five games in five days to get to the finals as a No. 10 seed. Now they draw the No. 1 seed Trojans, who beat No. 8 Southern Miss last night in their first conference tournament game. The bye all the way to the semifinals could end up being a huge deal for Troy here.
What Georgia Southern has done has been extremely impressive, but how much is left in the tank against a very fresh top seed? Not only that, but Georgia Southern has made 66 3-pointers in this tournament and is shooting just shy of 42% from 3. The Eagles shot 31.4% from 3 in the regular season during conference action. Also, Troy is the No. 1 3P% defense in this conference at 30.3%.
Troy is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference and you know that head coach Scott Cross will be hammering home getting second-chance opportunities against a team playing a sixth game in six days. Troy gets to the rim at a high rate, which should produce an advantage here because Georgia Southern is a little more reliant on 3s and the legs have to be barking. The Eagles had their worst shooting effort of the tournament in the win over Marshall last night, going 7-of-26 from 3 and 19-of-39 on 2s. Their 1.133 PPP were the lowest of the five games.
It’s a bit of a big number here, especially with a team playing its best ball of the season, but Troy had 1.302 PPP in the regular season game against a more rested Georgia Southern squad.
Pick: Troy -6.5
Detroit Mercy Titans vs. Robert Morris Colonials (-5.5, 147.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
The nightcap in Indy brings us Detroit vs. Robert Morris, as the Colonials look to sweep the season with a 3-0 record against the Titans. Bobby Mo won 85-77 back on Jan. 2 and 73-62 on Feb. 25. In those two games, Detroit took 39 mid-range jumpers to just 17 for Robert Morris. Shot selection is really important, especially in a neutral setting like this, and the Rim & 3 Rate that the Colonials had in the two regular season meetings is a really promising start to this handicap.
The Colonials also had 30 offensive rebounds over the first two games, while Detroit had 18. During the season, one thing that held Robert Morris back was their 17.6% TO% that ranked 10th out of 11 teams in conference play. Well, Detroit was 10th in TO% on defense at 13.9% and Robert Morris won the turnover battle 26-19 in the two games. Without turning the ball over as much as usual, the Colonials had 1.245 and 1.148 points per possession.
It will be hard for Detroit to score at that kind of pace with their shot selection, especially in a neutral setting here with a lot of jumpers and probably a sporadic at best crowd. Even in the midst of winning seven of their last nine to get the seed line that they did get in this conference tourney, that’s when Detroit lost by 11 to Robert Morris. I could certainly see something similar tonight.
Pick: Robert Morris -5.5
