College Basketball Picks
What a crazy start to the college basketball season, as we have more than 120 lined games on the card. That also includes the Field of 68 Marathon, which I previewed here. Some of those games were played overnight, so the results are already in, but there are still a few games to come.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
In the interest of lead time, I rarely look at afternoon games and we have a handful of those today, so my focus is later on the card with these best bets.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook at time of publish.
Akron (-5.5, 149) at Louisiana Prediction
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Under 149
The Zips and Ragin’ Cajuns meet as we have a MAC/Sun Belt Challenge going on early in the season. The Zips have gone through a ton of changes this year. Head coach John Groce is now at College of Charleston and a lot of last season’s top talent has moved on. Evan Mahaffey is back and Tahj Staveskie is back in Ohio after a season at Incarnate Word, but the Zips will need to find new scorers.
This was a team that moved up and down the court quickly under Groce and fired a lot of 3s. My guess is that Dustin Ford will attempt to slow them down a bit, at least at the outset. Ford’s brother Geno is the head coach at Stony Brook and was also at Bradley and Kent State. Over the years, his team’s tempo has changed based on personnel, but only once has he had a top-50 team in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik. So, I would anticipate Akron slows down based on that, and also because Ford recently talked about his team’s toughness in a media scrum.
Last year’s Zips were all about shooting the basketball. They were 15th nationally per Torvik in both 3P% and 2P%, taking a 3 on 44.8% of their shot attempts. They were also 37th in adjusted tempo. I don’t foresee anything like that this season.
That said, they may want to try and speed up Louisiana under former Houston assistant Quannas White. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 353rd in the nation in adjusted tempo last season and a terrible offensive club, shooting just 44.8% on 2s, a mark that ranked 357th in the country. White’s top returnee is probably De’Vion Lavergne, who shot 40.9% on 2s and 30.5% on 3s with a 22% Usage Rate. He didn’t bring in many high-upside scorers.
Also, one of my main criticisms with Houston each year is their shot selection. They take a lot of mid-range jumpers. Louisiana had a Close Two Shot Share of 28.5%, which was 363rd in the nation last season. That’s not a recipe for success. They were terrible at finishing at the rim and also shot poorly in the mid-range. Akron should be a solid defensive unit under Ford.
Makinen’s Effective Strength Ratings put this total at 147.8 and his Bettors’ Ratings at 145.2. See more here.
Illinois State at Saint Mary’s (-6, 148) Prediction
10 p.m. ET
Pick: Illinois State +6
A lot has changed for the Gaels. Head coach Randy Bennett finally decided it was time to take another job, as he shifted to Arizona State. Ironically, Bennett’s departure coincides with Gonzaga finally leaving the WCC to make that NCAA Tournament berth a little bit easier to obtain.
Illinois State is a team that I really liked last season and they had flashes during the season, but then really played well late in the year, making a deep run in the NIT with wins over Kent State, Wake Forest, and Dayton. Ryan Pedon has some building blocks with this roster, namely Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker, who were both big parts of last year’s club. What Pedon is hoping for is that Malik Messina-Moore finds a home in Carbondale, as he’s bounced around a good bit, but ran the point at Xavier last season. He was a more efficient scorer at Montana the year prior, but now he’s stepping back in class again from a conference standpoint.
The Gaels are a much bigger team than the Redbirds, so that will be the challenge for Illinois State. Saint Mary’s has two 6-foot-10 rotation guys and a 7-footer who will likely play big minutes as the season goes along. The primary scorers, Joshua Dent and Jeremy Dent-Smith, are on the smaller side, but are both excellent 3-point shooters.
The blueprint is there for a really good Saint Mary’s roster. I just think it will take some time with Mickey McConnell to get everything squared away and set up. McConnell has been Bennett’s assistant since 2019, so there is a level of continuity to this roster and this program. But, we have seen this line come down from 7 to 6 based on early action.
Line moves are going to be pretty sharp in nature early in the season and over the course of the season in college hoops. There are a lot of teams and bookmakers know that they are at a disadvantage in the early going. To see this line come down with the late start time and the size gap between the two teams suggests to me that somebody sharp likes what they see in Illinois State and so do I.
Makinen’s Power Ratings put this side at Saint Mary’s -9.3 and his Bettors’ Ratings at -8.4. See more here.
