🏈 Can the Bears Stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
That’s a big question heading into tonight’s Chicago–Seattle matchup (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The answer, according to VSiN’s prop tools, is no.
As Zach Cohen points out in his betting preview, Opta AI projects Smith-Njigba for 105.01 receiving yards — above his 97.5-yard total at DraftKings. And our WR–CB Matchup Tool, courtesy of John Hansen’s FantasyPoints.com, shows Smith-Njigba with the biggest Week 8 advantage against his expected cornerback matchup, Malik Muhammad.
The NFL Prop Analyzer adds another data point: Smith-Njigba is 6-1 to the Over at a 97.5-yard receiving line.
» Zach Cohen’s Bears–Seahawks betting preview
» Opta AI player prop projections
» WR–CB Matchup Tool
» NFL Prop Analyzer: Smith-Njigba
There’s another interesting head-to-head: new All-Pro acquisitions Quenton Nelson (Seattle guard) and Jeffery Simmons (Chicago defensive tackle) will face each other for the 14th time.
But Matt Youmans has his eye on a different matchup: “The Seahawks defense ranks No. 1 against the pass (144 yards per game) and fourth in scoring (17.9 ppg), so it will be interesting to see what Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can do a week after Patrick Mahomes was stifled in Seattle.”
Chicago will still be without running back Kyle Monangai, who misses his fourth straight game with thumb and toe injuries.
» Bears–Seahawks injury report
NFL Rewind / Fast Forward: Ravens Hurting
In Sunday’s email, we highlighted VSiN BOLT’s prop pick on Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 completions. He finished with zero — after injuring his thumb on his first attempt. Jackson is expected to miss at least four weeks following surgery.
His replacement, Tyler Huntley, exited with a turf toe injury, leaving emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano to finish a 36-10 loss to Buffalo.
Those injuries, combined with Jacksonville’s 42-10 beatdown of Indianapolis and a quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football, helped produce a massive Week 9 move: BAL -3 on the lookahead to JAX -8.5 by Sunday night.
Baker Mayfield didn’t complete a pass, either, but the Buccaneers (-2) beat Atlanta 16-0 in rain-drenched Tampa — the first such NFL win since Buffalo did it in 1974. Mayfield’s passer rating (39.6) still topped Michael Penix’s 12.0; Penix threw four interceptions.
Detroit (-3.5) handed previously unbeaten Minnesota its first loss, 19-15. At last report, Lions linebacker Jack Campbell remained hospitalized with a neck injury.
Dave Tuley’s Week 8 ATS report: Favorites are 10-2 straight up and 8-4 ATS through Sunday, with one pick’em (Chiefs–Broncos). Unders lead 7-6. For the season, favorites are 75-41-1 straight up, but underdogs still lead 58-53-6 ATS (52.3%). Overs lead 61-57-2 (51.7%).
» Adam Burke’s Week 9 Opening Lines Report
🏆 Contest Update
The Bengals (-13.5) gave contest players quite a scare, needing overtime to beat Tennessee 43-36.
Circa Survivor: 610 entries advanced to Week 9, including 350 that survived the Bengals’ sweat. Dallas’ stunning 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona (+7.5) eliminated 49 entries, and one lonely entry went out with the Jets.
Circa Grandissimo: All three remaining entries advanced with Cincinnati.
Circa Million: The five most-selected teams went 4-1 in Week 8, improving to 19-20-2 (48.7%) for the season. Winners: Bills -3, Steelers -3, Lions -3.5 and Broncos +1.5. The lone loss was Vikings +3.5. The No. 1 consensus pick (Buffalo) is now 6-2 (75%).
Circa Friday Football Invitational: Alex White’s 7-0 Week 8 lifted her to 38-18, ahead of Steve Fezzik at 34-19-3.
EdgeBoost Average Joe: Mike Wurmay leads overall at 44-12.
» VSiN Contest Hub
» Friday Football Invitational standings
» Average Joe standings
🏈 College Football: MACtion Returns
Adam Burke is preparing for the return of midweek MACtion and a Saturday slate packed with ranked matchups. The headliner: Miami at Notre Dame (-4.5, total 58) Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Circa opened Notre Dame -5 and a total of 58. With most books around -5.5 Sunday night, Circa’s current -4.5 stood out.
Adam also updated his Week 10 power ratings, identifying six games where his numbers differ meaningfully from the betting line.
» Adam Burke’s Week 10 Betting Report
» Six potential values in the Week 10 power ratings
🏀 College Basketball: 181 Games Today
College basketball tips off with 181 games today, and the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon is already underway as I write this.
Adam Burke breaks down the remaining marathon matchups. Meanwhile, Steve Makinen offers three sets of power ratings for every game, every day.
Pro tip: Select “Starred Only” in Steve’s ratings to isolate games where his numbers indicate value against the posted spread or total.
» Adam Burke’s opening-day analysis
» Steve Makinen’s daily college hoops power ratings
DONBEST: Keep the college hoops rotation numbers handy. » Get the College Basketball Rotation Book for $4.99
🎾 Tennis: Paris Masters Opens
The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the season begins in Paris. Zach Cohen sees a compelling outright case for Carlos Alcaraz, who showed signs of returning to peak form in Vienna, while Daniil Medvedev’s recent hard-court surge makes him an interesting quarter bet.
Zach also has three opening-day match bets, including a games-total angle built around Hubert Hurkacz’s serve against Lorenzo Musetti.
» Zach Cohen’s Paris Masters picks and futures
🏈 A Complimentary Pick From Wunderdog, Every Day
From Geoff at Wunderdog: Give me your email and a complimentary pick lands in your inbox every day, with the full write-up behind it. I’ll also put a $50 credit toward my Pro Picks in any sport. I’ve posted every pick since 2001, so you can check how I do before you use it.
