College Basketball Picks
There are a lot of games available to us on Monday, as we have 34 Division I vs. Division I matchups to analyze. The first game doesn’t go off until 6 p.m. ET, so we have some time to dig into everything. We also have a late game way out in Hawaii, so the night owls will have something to sink their teeth into, whether it means trying to recoup some losses or trying to add to a successful day.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Minnesota at Cincinnati (-7, 144)
7 p.m. ET
Pick: Minnesota +7
I don’t always look at games that you can’t find on TV. This is actually a pretty big measuring stick game for a couple of programs likely to be towards the middle of their respective conferences. Minnesota and Cincinnati are both teams looking to build on some new beginnings. In the case of Cincinnati, that means first-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun, who was at Utah State the last two seasons after a successful run at Youngstown State.
Calhoun brought standout combo guard MJ Collins with him from Logan, but most of the rest of his roster is a hodgepodge of transfers from all over the place. Most of them are from lower conferences, so we’ll have to see how the game translates to a stronger set of opponents for those individuals. So far, the Bearcats have looked good, but wins over American and Green Bay aren’t telling barometers.
The same is true for Minnesota, who has beaten North Dakota and St. Thomas. Holding St. Thomas to .961 points per possession is pretty good, given how well the Tommies usually play on offense. But, this is obviously a huge step up in class for both of these teams.
Minnesota plays slow. We’ll see about Cincinnati. Calhoun’s two Utah State teams were pretty average in terms of tempo, but his final Youngstown State team ran the floor. Either way, the Bearcats do look like they’ll be in that average range, at least at the outset. So, hopefully this game slows down a bit, as a seven-point head start becomes more valuable with a slower-paced game.
Niko Medved has several returnees on his roster, so he’s not really starting from scratch the way that Calhoun is. Medved did lose superstar Cade Tyson, but Bobby Durkin, Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, Isaac Asuma, and some others have returned. I’ll take my chances with the Golden Gophers and a really good coach in Medved covering this multi-possession spread.
UMKC at Jacksonville (-4, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET
Pick: Jacksonville -4
The Dolphins had arguably the top transfer portal class in the ASun this season, picking up Nememiah Turner from Minnesota and two double-digit scorers in Caleb Williams and Jamie Phillips Jr. The only tracked data point we really have for the Dolphins right now is their 31-point loss to Florida last time out. They crushed Trinity Jacksonville by 44 points in the season opener.
UMKC is one up and one down, beating Southern Illinois 100-93 at home on Friday and losing to Creighton a week ago in the season opener. Mark Turgeon is in his first season there and there’s hope for the Roos to improve, but it may take some time. They’ve been a pretty bad team for a while.
This is the first of three games in four days for UMKC, as they’ll play Florida A&M and George Mason on Wednesday and Thursday, so it’s a long trip to the Sunshine State. Jacksonville has a week off between games after this, so this is the full focus for Jordan Mincy’s club. I’m not surprised that the transfers struggled against the Gators, but this is definitely a much more reasonable opponent.
The portal class for the Dolphins should start to pay dividends rather quickly, especially because Mincy has some solid holdovers from last season, especially Hayden Wood, who had 11 points in the loss to Florida. He had a strong freshman season shooting 35.7% from 3 and 53.5% on 2s, but even in the NIL/portal era, Jacksonville was still able to keep him around. The Dolphins are the better team here and I like them in this one.
Boston U. at Northwestern (-16, 144)
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Boston U. +16
The Terriers and Wildcats meet up in Evanston here, as we should have a pretty slow-paced matchup. Northwestern was 297th in Torvik’s adjusted tempo metric last season, a slight upgrade from being 299th the season prior, 340th, and 308th in the two seasons prior to that. As the season goes along, we’ll see if Chris Collins wants to move any quicker or not, but for now, this is a team that dictates the pace by being incredibly responsible with the basketball.
Northwestern has been in the top 11 in TO% on offense in four of the last five seasons under Collins. While they’ve been up and down on the glass, defensively, and from a shot-making standpoint, slowing the game down has been one constant.
Joe Jones and Boston U. should be okay with that. The Terriers were 355th in the nation in adjusted tempo last season, but they did make the most of their shot attempts, finishing 12th in eFG%. It was a huge outlier for Jones as far as his tenure with the Terriers goes, but it was an impressive showing. Unfortunately, the team’s top three scoring threats – Michael McNair, Chance Gladden, and 7-footer Ben Defty – all moved on, but he does have Kyrone Alexander back after he missed nearly all of last season getting hurt in the first game. He also returned a 38% 3-point shooter in Sam Hughes and a 39% sniper in Azmar Abdullah.
Not having Defty’s presence hurts because he was such a good interior scorer, but if the Terriers can make some 3s, that will keep them in these slow-paced games. Northwestern was a pretty average team defensively against 3s last season and Binghamton and Stony Brook, this season’s two opponents, aren’t really great barometers of how well the team will defend 3s this season.
