College Basketball Bets
Many schools have wrapped up exam week and are ready to get back to focusing on basketball, while others still have those tests for the next few weekdays. But, it is Saturday and that’s why we were knocking on the door of 100 games today after having fewer games Monday-Friday than we get on December 13.
There are some outstanding non-conference clashes on the card to go along with a lot of mid-major and low-major games, so there’s something for everyone with the Saturday slate. As usual, I’ve narrowed my focus to the late games in hopes of providing enough lead time for those who want to follow or fade the picks to have the opportunity to do so.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Seton Hall Pirates (-11.5, 132.5)
8 p.m. ET
It’s been a slow start to the season for Steve Pikiell’s Rutgers squad, but that was to be expected, as he looked to get back to his roots as a defensive-minded head coach with lottery picks Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper no longer on the roster. Except for some bad luck defending the 3-point line, we’ve seen some signs of Rutgers returning to form. They are 68th in the nation in 2P% defense per Torvik while playing the 78th-ranked strength of schedule. They’ve already played two Quadrant 1-A games and three Quadrant 1 games overall.
This road game against Seton Hall will qualify as another Q1-A game, as they were blown out by Purdue and Michigan to open Big Ten play. But, Seton Hall doesn’t have the offensive firepower that those two teams have. The Pirates are 149th in the nation in 3P% and 211th in 2P%. While they have been excellent defensively, their strength of schedule is far lower than what Rutgers has faced to this point.
The Pirates also have just a 31.6% 3P Rate, so the one area where Rutgers has really suffered defensively could be minimized a good amount in this game. The Pirates have done really well with getting to the rim with a 48.5% shot share on Close Twos, but the Scarlet Knights should provide more resistance in there than most of the teams that they have faced.
Lastly, a double-digit spread in a game featuring teams that rank 298th and 308th in adjusted tempo should add some value to the points that the underdog is getting. I’ll take my shot here with Rutgers in what amounts to a pretty big step down in class from recent losses to Tennessee, Purdue, and Michigan.
Pick: Rutgers +11.5
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Grand Canyon Antelopes (-18.5, 141.5)
8 p.m. ET
I’m going against the grain of another line move here to look at Coastal Carolina on the road in Phoenix against Grand Canyon. It is a long way from home for the Chanticleers, especially for a standalone road game, but it is a good opportunity for them after winning a Quadrant 2 game last time out at Winthrop.
Quite simply, this is a bet on Coastal Carolina’s defensive scheme against what Grand Canyon wants to do on offense. The Lopes have a 45% shot share on Close Twos, which has really saved them on offense because they’re shooting just 27.4% on mid-range jumpers and 28.8% on 3s. Chanticleers head coach Justin Gray had quick success at Western Carolina because of his defense, which forces teams away from the rim and helps funnel them into the mid-range and into contested 3s.
Coastal is just outside the top 50 in shot share on Close Twos on defense, holding opponents to 49.7% shooting on a 33.5% shot share. Yes, level of competition is relevant here, but the Chants have the 15th-best FG% against on Close Twos. They are also 20th in shot share against on Farther Twos as defined by Torvik, so they are putting teams into very tough positions offensively.
To me, that makes it much more difficult for the Lopes to cover this big number. Coastal is 31st in eFG% defense and 20th in 2P% defense. Also, they Chants only have a 15% TO% on offense. Grand Canyon’s best defensive attribute is forcing turnovers. If the Lopes don’t get the extra possessions that they’ve been getting and are forced to be a jump-shooting team, winning by 19+ is tricky.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +18.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1.5, 150.5) vs. Utah Utes
10 p.m. ET
This is technically a neutral-site game, but it will be played at the Delta Center in downtown Salt Lake City, so the Utes and their fans simply have to go to a different side of town to attend this one. This amounts to a standalone road game in elevation for the Bulldogs, who return home to face LIU on Tuesday. They were off all of last week for exams and so was Utah, so both teams should be well-rested and ready to go.
One of the bigger questions in this game is the status of Utah forward Seydou Traore, who, ironically, shares the same name as a tight end on Mississippi State’s football team. Traore missed the game against Cal Baptist, which became a 91-85 shootout won by the Utes. Traore told Fox 13 News in SLC that he’s excited to play in the NBA arena, so I’m guessing that’s a good sign for his availability. First-year head coach Alex Jensen, who was a Jazz assistant for a long time, has a pretty small team, so Traore’s athleticism and length on the interior are very important on defense and offense.
That said, Mississippi State only has a 29.9% shot share on Close Twos. They take a lot of jump shots and I’m concerned about that in a big NBA venue. The Bulldogs are also only shooting 31.5% on 3s with a 41.9% 3P Rate, so they’re taking an above average number of 3s while shooting a well-below-average percentage on them. The Utes, meanwhile, are in the top 90 in 3P% at 35.6%.
With Jensen’s NBA experience, it is hardly a surprise to see the Utes with a very high Rim & 3 Rate. Nearly 86% of their shots are at the rim or from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, about 72% of Mississippi State’s shots are Rim & 3. In an unfamiliar shooting backdrop, that should benefit the Utes in a big way.
Pick: Utah +1.5
