College Basketball Bets
The College Football Playoff and a couple of NFL games are the dominant games on this Saturday slate, but we’ve got a lot of college basketball games and a lot of good evening action on the schedule. It’s a late start for me today, so I’ve cut the card down to just 7 p.m. ET and later games, which really thins the herd, but I still found a few solid looks.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Omaha Mavericks at Lamar Cardinals (-6.5, 141.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Mavericks head from Omaha to Beaumont for this one, as we get a Summit League vs. SWAC matchup. In taking a deeper dive into Omaha and the recent playing time distribution, I think we’re getting to the point where Chris Crutchfield is starting to figure out his rotations and his roster.
Floor general Tony Osburn returned for the games against lower-division opponents during the exam period, so he’s back in the fold and we’ve seen an increase in playing time for 7-foot-1 Christian Richardson of late. This team is a positive regression candidate anyway on offense with just a 54.3% FG% on Close Twos. They should be able to experience that today against a Lamar team allowing a 62.9% FG% at the rim.
The Cardinals take a very high percentage of mid-range jumpers at 35.3% and their shot distribution is going to continue to lead to offensive struggles, as they are 305th in the nation in eFG% offense and Lamar also doesn’t get to the free throw line to make life any easier. They are 343rd in the nation in FT Rate.
Omaha also gets to go up against a defense allowing a 37.3% 3P% in this one. This should be a good opportunity for a Mavericks team with a much higher Rim & 3 Rate and the roster back intact.
Pick: Omaha +6.5 (-112)
Portland State Vikings at Tulane Green Wave (-4.5, 145.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
A pretty random matchup here, as Portland State and Tulane come together down in Louisiana. We haven’t seen a lot of teams venture all that far from home over the last couple of weeks with exams and the holidays, but Portland State was willing to venture out east here. They won’t play again until New Year’s Day, so it will be a nice, long holiday break for Jase Coburn’s team.
The Big Sky boys are a team that I really like. Coburn’s offensive style features a very high Rim & 3 Rate, as the team is over 80% in that department, with a good split of 45.3% of their shots at the tin. This year’s Vikings aren’t quite as adept on the offensive glass as last year’s team, but they have a good chance to get there. The Vikings are also solid at forcing turnovers, which helps them push the pace.
Tulane doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, but Ron Hunter’s team really doesn’t have an identity this season. They’re only shooting 30% on 3s, but they have gotten to the free throw line a lot and have a 64.1% FG% on Close Twos. Some 3-point shooting regression would help this team and it’s possible that they have some against a lower-conference team in this one.
Back to how Hunter’s team has no identity, their possession numbers are all over the place, as they’ve played slow when the other team has and fast when the other team has. Portland State may want to speed this one up, especially with a lot of effort prior to the long break. Furthermore, Tulane is allowing opponents to shoot 38.3% from 3, which is among the 15 worst percentages against this season.
I think we see a lot of points in this game. Both teams have Rim & 3 Rates over 80%, Tulane is likely to play closer to Portland State’s pace, and Coburn’s team should have good energy playing in a cool place with a step up in talent and class on the other side.
Pick: Over 145.5 (-108)
UC Riverside Highlanders at St. Thomas Tommies (-12.5, 151.5)
8 p.m. ET
A random one-off trip to Minnesota makes for a weird spot for UC Riverside, as they’ll return to California and take on UCLA on Tuesday. This has to be a bit of a road-weary team at this point, as the Highlanders have played 12 games and nine of them have been on the road, as they’ve been all over California and the Rocky Mountains. This, though, will be their longest trip east of the season.
St. Thomas is a really fun team. They have been very good on offense under Johnny Tauer the last two seasons and are working on another one. This team was fourth in eFG% offense last season and 32nd the season prior. They’re also one of the best at taking care of the basketball, a very big, very important factor in this game for me. As a team that ranks 57th in eFG% this season and is shooting 63% on 2-point shots, extra possessions are always a good thing.
The Tommies are shooting nearly 70% on their Close Two shot attempts and UC Riverside has allowed a 45.2% shot share on Close Twos. The Tommies should be able to get to the rim and they’ve also been a team that has been extremely good over the last two years shooting the ball at home. While they’re only shooting 31.5% from 3, they are shooting 33.3% after a 10-for-46 start to the season in their first two games.
As mentioned, St. Thomas takes care of the ball with a 14.6% TO% on offense that ranks 39th. UC Riverside does not with a TO% of 20.6% that ranks 317th. Furthermore, the Highlanders are 342nd in the nation in TO% on defense. St. Thomas is 68th. The Tommies don’t get offensive rebounds, but they don’t give them up either.
St. Thomas should get a lot of extra possessions here as a very, very efficient offense with a Rim & 3 Rate of more than 90%. It’s a big number, but sign me up.
Pick: St. Thomas -12.5 (-118)
