College Basketball Bets
It’s really beginning to feel like college basketball season, as we have over 100 games on Saturday. That’s what we can expect throughout January and February, but this is the first really big card we’ve had for this season. That’s a good thing because I’ve gotten a very late start to today’s article, so I’ll be focusing on games that are very late in hopes of giving the article enough lead time to be useful.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at North Dakota State Bison (-10.5, 147.5)
8 p.m. ET
The Big Sky and Summit League have been playing each other over the last week and this matchup features two of those teams, as Northern Arizona heads to North Dakota State. We’ve seen a bit of movement towards the Bison here, with the line moving from 9.5 to 10.5. With pretty comparable strengths of schedule, the line move doesn’t really have anything to do with that.
There are a couple of reasons why this line has moved. NDSU takes a much higher rate of 3s at 44.5% compared to NAU’s 32.5%. The other is that the Bison have one of the top TO% margins in the nation, as they are 50th in TO% on offense and 39th on defense. But, I actually like the other side in this game.
NDSU does take a lot of 3s, but they don’t have good shooters. So far, the Bison are shooting 28.6% from 3. Northern Arizona should get to the rim at a higher rate in this game and at least give themselves a chance at higher-percentage scoring opportunities. They’re only finishing at a 49.2% clip at the rim, a number that should go up as we go along.
With a game likely to be played to 66 or 67 possessions or so, the Lumberjacks have a good chance at keeping this one close because NDSU doesn’t really shoot well enough at the rim or from 3 to blow out many teams, barring a defensive outlier type of performance.
Pick: Northern Arizona +10.5 (-105)
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (-12.5, 146.5)
9 p.m. ET
Back to the Big West we go after having a winner with Long Beach State against UC Santa Barbara the other day. Some of the same thoughts are in play here, as UCSB was -12.5 against Long Beach State and is now -12.5 against Bakersfield.
I am expecting this game to be played to a fairly slow tempo, probably around 65 or 66 possessions. Bakersfield does run more than Long Beach State, but still. The Gauchos are the better team and they should control the tempo in this matchup. But, UCSB still has problems on the defensive end, where they’ve allowed at least 1.044 points per possession to every Division I opponent they have faced. They just had their best game against Long Beach State and still gave up over a point per possession with a 43.9% eFG% against.
Like I said before Thursday’s game, Gauchos head coach Joe Pasternack is still trying to figure out his roster and his rotations, as a lot of guys have gotten some decent playing time. But, this is a group that doesn’t really have a strong interior presence and is shooting just 52.9% on Close Twos. They’ve made a lot of 3s and mid-range jumpers to make up for it, but that’s not always going to be a reliable strategy.
The one big worry here with Bakersfield vs. Long Beach State is that the Roadrunners have had trouble valuing possessions with a TO% on offense of nearly 22%. Even with those issues, though, and a current run of 7-for-45 on 3s, the Gauchos might be the cure for their offensive struggles.
Pick: Cal State Bakersfield +12.5 (-112)
