College Basketball Bets
Every college basketball Saturday has more and more importance as we get closer to the NCAA Tournament. Not only do we have marquee matchups that are going to have an impact on seed lines for the Big Dance, but we also have some really important games for bubble teams, as well as a lot of games that matter to teams that are trying to qualify for their conference tournaments. Almost every game has some degree of meaning.
Obviously Arizona vs. Houston and Michigan vs. Duke are grabbing headlines for today, and I wrote previews of those two games on their own. Now it’s about looking through the rest of the card to find the best of the best when it comes to bets. With so many games and so many options, it is a big undertaking on a day like today to sort through the card, but in the interest of lead time, I’m looking at games at 6 p.m. ET or later.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Montana State Bobcats (-2.5, 144.5) at Idaho State Bengals
6 p.m. ET
It didn’t work out for us with Montana against Idaho State on Thursday night, but I’m going back to the well here with Montana State at a similar number against the Bengals. We did see money leak in on the Idaho State side throughout the day against Montana. I never really understood that line move, but I guess it was right.
Look, Idaho State had their best defensive performance in Big Sky play against Montana, so I think we got a bit unlucky there. The Bengals had allowed at least 1.3 points per possession in four of their previous five games and at least 1.2 PPP in five of their last six. The Grizzlies were just unable to fully take advantage. Montana State is a better offense, though, and they should be able to maximize that advantage.
Montana State is second in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency. They turn the ball over a lot less often than Montana and that’s likely to be a deciding factor here in this game. Montana State is also second in Big Sky play on 3s at better than 38%. Idaho State is dead last in the 10-team conference in 3P%. Road or home, the 3-point shooting ability of Montana State compared to their opponent in this game should yield a pretty positive outcome.
Montana State won the first game between these two teams by 12 points. In that game, the Bobcats won the rebounding battle, the turnover battle, and the 3P% battle. All of those things are likely to happen again.
Pick: Montana State -2.5
Pacific Tigers at Gonzaga Bulldogs (-21.5, 144.5)
9 p.m. ET
It has been a long wait for Dave Smart and his Tigers to get a crack at Gonzaga. This is the one and only head-to-head meeting of the regular season and it is actually Pacific’s second-to-last regular season game. They’ll host San Francisco next, while Gonzaga plays a revenge game against Portland and then takes on archrival Saint Mary’s.
Pacific is actually a solid team in this conference. They are fifth in eFG% offense and fourth in eFG% defense, as they’re shooting 39.6% from 3 and have done an above average job defensively. The one really worrisome thing about Pacific in this game is that they turn the ball over a lot and don’t really get those possessions back on the defensive end of the floor, while Gonzaga is the WCC’s best team in terms of TO% on offense and sits second in TO% on defense.
But, Pacific plays at a super slow tempo and if they can successfully slow the Zags down, that’ll help them keep this game close. They can make enough shots and, more specifically, enough 3s to avoid getting totally blown out here. Gonzaga has come around a bit offensively, but they’ve had some very big outliers in recent matchups to help their profile look a lot stronger.
Smart is a smart head coach and Pacific is the most competitive that they’ve been since 2020 and maybe even 2013 prior to that. Even if the Tigers lose the last two regular season games and lose in the first game of the WCC Tournament, they’ll still have a winning season.
Given Gonzaga’s super low 3P Rate and Pacific’s style of play with a slow tempo and a high rate of made 3s, they’re getting a pretty big head start in this game.
Pick: Pacific +21.5
UC San Diego Tritons at UC Irvine Anteaters (-4.5, 142.5)
10 p.m. ET
UC Irvine and UC San Diego met back on Jan. 24 and it was a two-point road win for the Anteaters. They’ll look to sweep the season series at home in this one, as we have a late tip in the Big West. The first game was a really poor offensive showing from both teams, as the Tritons were 9-of-32 from 3. UC Irvine was just 4-of-16 from 3 and still picked up the win.
The Anteaters definitely have the better set of statistics in Big West play this season, as the Tritons really lost a lot from last season and it has shown, as they are barely above .500 in conference play. UC Irvine should continue to make life very hard on UCSD from a shot-making standpoint, as this is the top defense in the conference by 2P% defense and the second-best by 3P% defense.
Now at home, I would anticipate the Anteaters to be better from 3. As it is, they’re shooting 36.8% from 3 in conference games. They were nowhere near that in the first meeting and still picked up a super gritty win on the road. For the most part, UC San Diego has picked up losses against comparable or better opponents and their numbers look better than they are because of what they’ve done against inferior competition. UC Irvine is not inferior.
Pick: UC Irvine -4.5
