College Basketball Bets
With over 140 games on the Saturday slate, including some regular season finales, it is a huge day for college basketball fans and bettors. It also means that the schedule is extremely overwhelming with so many games, conferences, and things to keep in mind. But, that’s why we’re here at VSiN and we have a ton of really good resources and handicappers at your disposal.
In the interest of lead time, I’m only looking at games that start at 6 p.m. ET or later. It really does cut down the card and the availability of games, but it’s only fair to the readers with the Saturday morning posting time of the article.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Hofstra Pride (-12.5, 138.5)
7 p.m. ET
This is a pretty interesting game and handicap, as Stony Brook will be without Erik Pratt, suspended for his actions in the game against Monmouth last time out. Normally, I’d be really worried about a team losing their leading scorer, especially since Pratt has averaged nearly 20 points per game. But, he’s largely done so because he’s a bit of a ball hog.
Pratt has a 31.9% Usage Rate for the Seawolves, but he’s only a 48% shooter on 2s and a 31% shooter on 3s. Pratt is 50-of-160 on 3-point shots, as he’s taken the most 3s for Stony Brook, but he’s maybe not the best guy to be firing away. In terms of his 2-point success, he’s only finishing at the rim at a 49.4% rate. Everybody else will have to step up in his absence, but some more efficient players may get their hands on the ball.
My guess would be that Stony Brook would slow down from a tempo standpoint a little bit and Hofstra is rarely in a hurry, that could help condense the game a bit. Hofstra ranks outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo and Stony Brook is well below the national average as well.
The Pride can’t really move up or down much in the CAA Tournament standings, so this is just a regular game for them, but I could really see guys moving into the spotlight for the Seawolves playing a good bit harder.
Pick: Stony Brook +12.5
Boise State Broncos (-7.5, 148.5) at Fresno State Bulldogs
7:30 p.m. ET
There are still three games left in the Mountain West schedule, so there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to seeding for the conference tournament. Boise State has really underperformed relative to recent history in conference play, but you have glimpses of this team stepping up to the point where they could maybe make some noise in Las Vegas.
Boise State’s chief problem has been team defense. They are second in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. But, the Broncos should get a break here because Fresno State is really bad on the offensive end of things. The Bulldogs are ninth in eFG% offense, 2P%, and 3P%.
Recently, the Bulldogs have hit a hot stretch on offense, but they’ve still gone just 1-4 in those games while averaging well over one point per possession. Boise State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but what has held the Fresno State offense back has been turning the ball over. Maybe that means that the Broncos can rack up a few extra possessions in this matchup. If nothing else, Boise State is far and away the better rebounding team between the two, including their offensive rebounding numbers.
Quite simply, the Broncos are just a better team and it’s not a bad price to pay for a team that has several advantages in the matchup.
Pick: Boise State -7.5
