College Basketball Bets
With more than 150 college basketball games on the schedule for Saturday, it shouldn’t be hard to find betting opportunities. It will be much more difficult trying to handicap a card that big, so it’s worth trying to segment the day out a little bit and not conquer it all at once. You might have lost some line value based on the overnight market moves, but it’s better to handicap with a clear mind and the time that it takes to look everything over than rush into what might be a bad bet.
Certainly there are some major conferences in action, but today’s schedule features basically every conference in the country, so there will be games that should apply to every fan, geographic region, and type of bettor. As usual, with the lead time of my article, I’m only looking towards the evening hours and later, which does help cut the card down a bit.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Northern Colorado Bears (-2.5, 152.5) at Idaho State Bengals
6 p.m. ET
After trouncing Weber State in a road revenge spot, Northern Colorado spent a night off in Pocatello waiting for tonight’s tilt with Idaho State. The Bengals have dropped six in a row heading into this one, including a really disappointing 79-73 loss to Northern Arizona at home on Thursday night. The Lumberjacks had 1.331 points per possession, as Idaho State’s major defensive shortcomings were at the forefront once again.
Northern Colorado has won three in a row and, while they have defensive concerns of their own, they do have the better offense by a good margin between the two teams. The Bears are second in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in eFG% in conference games thus far. This is a conference where defense is generally pretty optional and scoring more than your opponent is how to win games, except for maybe a team like Portland State or Montana.
The Bears are shooting 35.7% from 3 and that actually ranks seventh in conference play to give you an idea of how passive defense is in this league. The Bears are shooting 55% on 2s and that’s second in the conference to Montana. Meanwhile, Idaho State is fourth in 2s at 54.2%, but ninth in 3s at 34.3%. Northern Colorado is also the stronger team on the defensive glass. In a conference with low ORB% to begin with, Northern Colorado should be able to limit those second chances for the Bengals.
In the first game, which Northern Colorado won by 13 at home, they trailed in the first minute and never trailed again, leading by as many as 19 three different times in the second half. Idaho State only had two assists on 26 made field goals. Northern Colorado had 16 on 29. While I’m not expecting a repeat performance of 16-of-35 from 3, I do think the Bears win and cover here.
Pick: Northern Colorado -2.5
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers at Iona Gaels (-4.5, 139.5)
7 p.m. ET
A little MAAC flavor here on Saturday with a matchup between Mount St. Mary’s and Iona. This was not a good matchup for the Gaels back on Dec. 29, as the Mountaineers won 66-59. The Mount had 36 shot attempts at the rim compared to just 20 for Iona. Even though MSM was only 3-of-17 from deep, they still came away with the victory by really forcing the issue on the interior.
While Iona has the stronger efficiency numbers on offense and defense in conference play, there are a few caveats. The first is that Mount St. Mary’s is better in eFG% defense, ORB and DRB%, FT Rate, FT%, and 2P% offense. The only area where the Mount is truly lacking is in 3P% offense and that’s why Iona has the edge on offense. Similarly, Iona is limiting opponents to 29.7% from 3 in conference games, but that didn’t bother the Mountaineers in the first game because they got the ball inside to have success.
Also, according to Torvik’s conference strength of schedule rankings, MSM has played the second-toughest slate of conference foes thus far. Iona’s SOS is seventh, so their conference numbers may not be as legitimate as MSM’s.
With both rosters intact like they were for the first meeting, I’ll take my chances with the Mount to cover the number.
Pick: Mount St. Mary’s +4.5
Portland State Vikings (-4.5, 152.5) at Sacramento State Hornets
10 p.m. ET
Sacramento State is playing a lot better of late, having won five of their last seven games and three in a row, but this matchup against Portland State might be what slows down their momentum in a big way. These two teams played in Portland back on Jan. 10 and it was a 96-69 win for the Vikings. The game wasn’t even really that close, as Portland State led by 36 with about nine minutes left.
Sac State only scored 47 points off of made field goals in that one, going 22-of-28 at the free throw line. They also only turned the ball over five times, so you can see just how suffocating the best defense in the Big Sky Conference was in that first meeting. This is still the best defense in the Big Sky and by a wide margin, as Portland State is the only team with an adjusted defensive efficiency below 100. Sacramento State is eighth in that department.
Portland State’s offensive performance in the first meeting was a tad out of character, but it’s worth noting that a 104.8 adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks 10th in the 10-team Big Sky would still rank 244th nationally in conference-only games. So, while it’s obviously not good, it illustrates the strength of the conference on offense. Portland State’s 54% 2P% is 96th in the nation in conference games and their eFG% offense is 106th. So, they’re fine on that front.
Sac State has been better than expected in Year 1 with head coach Mike Bibby, Damian Lillard’s input, and a pretty big investment in the NIL collective, but Portland State is the class of this conference in my opinion and I think Jase Coburn’s team shows it tonight.
Pick: Portland State -4.5
