College Basketball Bets
It may be the start of the NFL Playoffs, but it is also a massive day on the college basketball slate, as there are 149 games, so nearly 300 teams are in action. The nice thing about a card that big is we have swathes of games throughout the day, so there are plenty of early starts, but also several late games.
Unfortunately, we’ve got a big batch are 8 p.m. ET and then just eight games that start after that, but even with a late start to today’s article, I didn’t want to leave readers empty-handed. With that in mind, I focused just on those, so here’s some late-night action to entertain on a Saturday night.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
San Jose State Spartans at Grand Canyon Antelopes (-17.5, 137.5)
8 p.m. ET
We’ve got a very big number here for this Mountain West matchup between San Jose State and Grand Canyon, but not only is it deserved, but it may not be big enough. The Spartans were already up against it without Yaphet Moundi (12.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG), but now they’re also without Colby Garland (18.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.0 APG), who got hurt in the last game, and Jermaine Washington (11.1 PPG, 3.3 APG) for tonight’s tilt.
JaVaughn Hannah, who has played a lot of college basketball in his career, has only played two games and he’s questionable again tonight. Sadraque NgaNga has also been banged up. Without Garland, Moundi, and Washington, the Spartans are missing their only players with at least 1.2 assists per game and over a steal per game.
In using the data from our pals over at CBBAnalytics.com, the Spartans go from a -9.5 Net Rating to a -20.3 Net Rating without Washington on the floor. Without Garland, they go from a -8.4 Net Rating to a -24.7 Net Rating. Without Moundi, they go from a -5.2 Net Rating to a -19.6 Net Rating.
Those are three huge players for them to say the least. I’m sure Tim Miles will try to slow the game down to as much of a grind as possible, but without Garland’s 28.8% Usage Rate, lesser players are going to have to step in as ball-handlers. Grand Canyon is 88th in the nation in TO% on defense. The Lopes are also terrific at getting the ball inside to get easy buckets and now have an even greater rebounding edge.
Pick: Grand Canyon -17.5 (-110)
Idaho State Bengals (-4.5, 140.5) at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
8 p.m. ET
Another 8 p.m. ET tilt, as we get some Big Sky action in Flagstaff between Idaho State and Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks are missing top scorer Zack Davidson, who is their tallest player at 6-foot-9 and also their primary interior weapon. Traivar Jackson leads the team with 13 dunks and he stepped up with a season-high 16 points in the last game, which NAU lost by 13 to Weber State.
Idaho State is shooting 54% on 2s and 36.6% on 3s, while NAU is shooting just 48.2% on 2s and 34.4% on 3s. That’s still a good 3P%, but without Davidson on the interior, Idaho State will be able to focus more on defending the perimeter, which they’ve done well this season with a 31.2% 3P% against.
Davidson is also the team’s third-leading rebounder, so an Idaho State team that ranks 88th in ORB% per Torvik should be able to wrangle some second-chance opportunities out of that as well.
Idaho State’s poor 2P% against is actually because opponents are shooting 48.6% on mid-range jumpers, which is something that should come down as the season goes along. Those are high-risk, low-reward shot options and coaches are usually just fine with the opposition taking those types of looks.
In a low-possession game, Idaho State’s higher offensive efficiency coupled with the loss of Davidson should be enough to push them through.
Pick: Idaho State -4.5 (-110)
