College Basketball Bets
Nearly 300 teams are in action on Saturday, as we have 145 games spread across the country. That’s a lot of basketball and a very overwhelming task. Many will just focus on the premier matchups, which is fine, but there can be some excellent value down the board, especially for those specializing in certain conferences.
That’s not me, though, as I’ve been handicapping these teams since the start of the season and it’s just about trying to find and isolate the best bets that I see, with a focus on the late games so there’s a lot of lead time for the readers.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
The Citadel Bulldogs at VMI Keydets (-6.5, 142.5)
7 p.m. ET
This battle of bad teams in the SoCon takes place in Lexington, VA, as the Virginia Military Academy hosts The Citadel. It is not a great spot for the Bulldogs, who have played back-to-back overtime games, including a 69-66 loss on the road to UNC Greensboro last time out. VMI also played on Thursday, but they were at home for a 10-point loss to Mercer.
The Keydets have played teams ranked 145, 155, and 141 per Torvik over the last three games, so this represents a huge step down in class against The Citadel. In fact, this will be the lowest-rated team that the Keydets have faced all season at 357th.
Fourth-year head coach Andrew Wilson has a really tough job with this program, and it is a very young program by comparison to most. One of his freshmen, Alexander Daushvili, was lost to an injury two games ago against Furman and VMI has been crushed on the boards since. The Citadel isn’t a very good rebounding team and doesn’t get to the rim at a high rate, so it shouldn’t matter too much in this game. It probably will going forward, though.
What it does mean is that VMI is a pretty high-variance team right now because they’re likely to shoot even more 3s with a smaller lineup. As it is, they’re shooting a 3 on 48.5% of their shot attempts against Quadrant 3 or lower opponents. That is probably not a bad thing here, as the Bulldogs have allowed a 41.7% 3P%, which is 359th in the nation.
In a battle of two really poor defensive teams, VMI is better at taking care of the basketball against comparable opponents and a better offensive team on the whole. I think that should be enough here, plus The Citadel may have some tired legs off that OT game and some long bus rides this week.
Pick: VMI -6.5 (-108)
Long Beach State Beach at Cal State Northridge Matadors (-5.5, 157.5)
8 p.m. ET
A Big West battle in Northridge features the Matadors and the uncreatively-named “Beach” of Long Beach State. This should be an interesting game with contrasting styles, as Northridge loves to get to the rim and play at a fast tempo, while Long Beach State takes a lot of jumpers and plays at an average tempo.
There are a few things to tackle with this game. The first is that Long Beach State played a top-100 non-conference schedule, so their offensive numbers are probably better than what we’ve seen thus far. In fact, if you look just at Quadrant 3 and lower games, the Beach ranks 170th in eFG%, 173rd in 2P%, and 186th in 3P%, a big departure from their full-season numbers of 210th, 183rd, and 261st, respectively. The 3P% one is the most important here because the Matadors have forced opponents into a 3-pointer on 48.5% of shots against.
When the Beach can get to the rim, they’re shooting 65.8% on Close Twos. Also, they recently shifted the lineup a little bit to play 6-foot-9 freshman Leopold Levillain more frequently. Over his last two games, Levillain has pulled down 25 rebounds and scored 21 points in 63 minutes of action. He’s 8-for-10 on shot attempts at the rim and I feel like he’s a good shift in playing time for head coach Chris Acker. Hopefully he stays out of foul trouble here.
The Matadors are 13th in adjusted tempo and 10th in shot share on Close Twos. They love to slash and get to the rim. Long Beach State is 311th in the nation in eFG% defense and 349th in eFG% defense against Q3 or lower opponents. They don’t get many stops and this is a Northridge team that forces the issue with their pace and pressure in the offensive halfcourt.
This total has been whacked to the Under, but I don’t really see it, especially when looking at the numbers against more comparable opponents for Long Beach State.
Pick: Over 157.5 (-115)
Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats (-1.5, 155.5)
9 p.m. ET
This game has the potential for a wide range of outcomes, as Idaho heads to Ogden, UT to take on Weber State. Idaho is a team that takes a ton of 3s. Weber State is one of the most successful teams at getting to the rim. Two very different styles of play here and it’s going to be interesting to see how it works out.
Idaho is 14th in the nation in 3P Rate at 50.1%. Weber State is 313th at 33%. On the flip side, Weber State has a 51.9% shot share on Close Twos that ranks No. 1 in the nation, while Idaho at 32.9% is 327th. Weber State should hold a big advantage on the glass and in the free throw department here. If Idaho shoots well, scoring by 3s instead of 2s will make it hard for Weber State to keep up.
But, there are a few things I’m thinking about here. The first is that Idaho is on the road and teams just inherently shoot better at home. In four home games against D-I opponents, Idaho is shooting 38.2% from 3. They’ve also lit it up against the three lower-division opponents that they’ve played. In eight games in true road settings, the Vandals are shooting 33.8% from 3, including a 4-for-26 performance against rival Idaho State on Thursday.
In Weber State’s five Big Sky games, they’ve scored 1.067, 1.229, 1.244, 1.141, and 1.213 points per possession, losing only to Portland State in overtime in that 1.067-PPP performance. In Idaho’s four Big Sky games, they’ve allowed 1.168, 1.127, 1.303, and 1.138 PPP. They’ve been terrible defensively and their offense is dependent on how they shoot from deep, which is fairly unreliable from game-to-game, especially on the road.
So, I’ll take my chances with Weber State here, as they should have more high-percentage scoring chances and more free throw attempts.
Pick: Weber State -1.5 (-110)
