College Basketball Bets
It is a wild college basketball day, as we lost some games to the winter storm wreaking havoc on a large part of the country. Some games were rescheduled to be played on Friday. Others were moved to other times. We’ve also seen a lot of tip-off times changed as a result of the weather and safety concerns. So, it’s a bit of a jumbled mess in a lot of places, though there are also a lot of games west of the Rockies that are just fine.
Games started at 11 a.m. ET and will run after midnight with a game out in Hawaii, so it is going to be a marathon, not a sprint for college basketball bettors today.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Idaho State Bengals at Montana Grizzlies (-4.5, 149.5)
6 p.m. ET
To the Big Sky we go for this matchup between the Bengals and Grizzlies. We’ve seen a move down on the total for this game and also a little bit of an increase on the point spread in Montana’s favor as the home squad. My focus is on the total and going against the grain in this one.
Idaho State’s adjusted tempo does rank 333rd in the nation per Torvik at 63.9 possessions, but they are playing at an adjusted tempo of 67.2 possessions in conference play so far. Montana has slowed down slightly, but they’re a remarkably efficient offensive team. In conference play, the Grizz are shooting 61.7% on 2s, 39.3% on 3s, and have made over 87% of their free throws. But, they’re a pedestrian defensive team, which is how they’re only 5-2 in conference action. They are second in eFG% defense in the conference, but this is a conference where defense is largely optional.
Montana also doesn’t turn teams over, as they have a 14.4% TO% in conference play and overall. Idaho State makes shots. They’re a top-100 team in both 2P% and 3P%. This is a matchup between the 16th and 83rd-ranked offenses by eFG%. Idaho State is also good at pulling down ORebs, which should be helpful in this underdog role.
Lastly, Idaho State is shooting 35.3% on 3s with a 44.9% 3P Rate. Montana is shooting 38.1% on 3s with a 41.9% 3P Rate. That’s a high rate of 3-point shots and a high rate of 3-point makes in a game that will probably play a little faster than Idaho State’s season-long tempo metrics suggest.
Pick: Over 149.5
Lafayette Leopards at Lehigh Mountain Hawks (-3.5, 143.5)
7 p.m. ET
A nighttime game in the Patriot League here, as Lafayette and Lehigh square off. We basically need to look at the Mountain Hawks as a tale of two seasons because Edouard Benoit has been so good. Benoit has suited up for the last seven games after getting hurt early in the season. Since coming back, he’s scored an average of 18.3 PPG and had 11 in his first two games back, so he’s been really good of late, as the Mountain Hawks have won four of their last five.
Benoit is also averaging six rebounds per game, so he’s a force on both ends of the floor. Lehigh is 10.4 points better in Net Rating with Benoit on the floor per CBB Analytics’ On/Off Stats. The team has a big spike in Offensive Rating and that’s what I’m focused on against a Lafayette team that is 288th in eFG% defense and 329th in 3P% defense.
Given how Lehigh sells out to defend the 3-point line with the third-lowest 3P Rate against in the nation, I think it’ll be hard for Lafayette to keep up with a Lehigh team that is clearly better with Benoit on the floor and in rhythm. His presence is also going to gradually help their poor defensive rebounding numbers.
Pick: Lehigh -3.5
