College Basketball Bets
It is a huge college hoops card, though late games are in fairly short supply, as we have well over 100 games in total, but only 15 of them start at 7 p.m. ET or later. A very late start to the morning for me thanks to some internet issues really limit the card, but I didn’t want to leave readers empty-handed with the first really big Saturday slate that we’ve had in a while.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Montana State Bobcats (-10.5, 141.5)
8 p.m. ET
It’s a special time for Montana State, as the football team will play in Monday’s FCS National Championship Game in Nashville. But, at home in Bozeman, it’s still winter break for the students and a lot of the fans with the means have headed to the Music City, so I think we see a subdued atmosphere in tonight’s tilt against Northern Arizona.
As it is, these two teams play at slow paces, with NAU 283rd in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Montana State 285th. The Bobcats take a lot of 3s with a top-50 3P Rate, but rank 262nd in the nation in making them. Neither of these teams are good offensive rebounding squads. Montana State is shooting 46.4% on mid-range jumpers, something that I would not expect to be sustainable going forward. They are shooting 63.1% on Close Twos, but they only have a 30.8% shot share on those attempts, so they aren’t really maximizing that advantage much.
In a game that should feature limited possessions, I think it will be tough for Montana State to open up a big gap here. The Bobcats are also coming off of a really big win against Northern Colorado in what could have been a preview of the Big Sky Conference Tournament finale in a couple months time. The Lumberjacks lost by 14 to Montana last time out as they got back on the road and also played a D-I team for the first time since Dec. 21. I think they’ll be better equipped to play well here.
Pick: Northern Arizona +10.5 (-105)
UT Arlington Mavericks (-5.5, 137.5) at Southern Utah Thunderbirds
8:30 p.m. ET
We’ve got WACtion in Cedar City as Southern Utah hosts UT Arlington in this one. We’ve seen some steam hit the board on SUU and I have to be honest, I don’t understand why. This is a Thunderbirds team that is only shooting 26.3% from 3 against a Mavericks defense allowing opponents to shoot just 24.6%. UT Arlington has a much higher shot share at the rim and they should see their offensive numbers improve as they start taking better care of the ball.
The Mavs have a 22.4% TO% on offense, which ranks 357th in the nation. That’s obviously terrible, but SUU has a 14.2% TO% on defense, so they’re not forcing a lot of takeaways. KT Turner’s Mavericks team plays at a slow pace, but they do like to pressure as much as possible, which is why they’ve been pretty solid at forcing turnovers during Turner’s tenure.
Along with a low TO% on defense, the Thunderbirds have a high TO% on offense, so they’re wasting a lot of possessions and their shot selection is rather poor for a team that doesn’t get any offensive rebounds and doesn’t protect the basketball. That makes it really hard for them to score points, as they rank 305th in eFG% on offense. To make matters worse, they are 344th in eFG% on defense.
Maybe the elevation winds up being a bit of a problem for the Mavs, but they just beat a really strong Cal Baptist team by 12 and, while they’ve been inconsistent, they’re still a far better team than Southern Utah.
Pick: UT Arlington -5.5 (-112)
