College Basketball Bets
The Saturday college basketball slate is enormous, as we have over 140 games on the docket. We have tip-offs from Noon until 10:30 p.m. ET, with the late game being a big one between Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, which is annually the best game that the West Coast Conference has to offer. Usually we get two, if not three, of those matchups and they are always fun.
But, we have a ton of other games and maybe some better betting opportunities out of those, so we’ll try to sort through everything and try to find the best games. As usual, my focus is later in the day in the interest of lead time, but Greg Peterson has a cornucopia of college hoops picks every day, including some early matchups.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Nicholls Colonels at East Texas A&M Lions (-2.5, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET
A deep dive into the Southland Conference for this rematch between the Colonels and the Lions. Nicholls won the first game in blowout fashion 80-58 back on Jan. 3. A huge 3-point shooting discrepancy was the root cause, as Nicholls was 14-of-34 from 3 and East Texas A&M was just 3-of-24. But, the Lions still had some measure of success on offense, as they were 20-of-28 on Close Twos as defined by Torvik, while Nicholls was just 12-of-27.
While East Texas A&M won’t be 3-of-24 from 3 bad on a nightly basis, they are not a good distance shooting team. Thus far, the Lions are only shooting 31.4% from 3 in conference action. Meanwhile, Nicholls is firing at a 35.9% clip. The irony from the first meeting is that Nicholls is also the better team when it comes to 2-point shots, though they got badly outscored in the paint.
Nicholls had an advantage on the glass in that game and should again, as the Lions are among the worst rebounding teams in the Southland. Nicholls ripped down 16 ORebs in the first meeting, but they still had that poor 12-of-27 mark on Close Twos. I have to think that they see some positive regression in that department here, even if their 3-point shooting falls off a little bit.
Similarly, Nicholls is second in the conference with a 22.4% TO% on defense and East Texas A&M has turned the ball over on more than 20% of their possessions in league games. Again, maybe they don’t turn it over 24 times like they did 28 days ago, but it’s still very likely to be a problem in the rematch here. We don’t need a 22-point blowout. We just need a Nicholls win or very close loss.
Pick: Nicholls +2.5
Oregon State Beavers at San Diego Toreros (-2.5, 150.5)
7 p.m. ET
Not the premier WCC game of the night, but one that I feel like has some good betting opportunities. Oregon State visits San Diego State and it hasn’t been pretty on the road for the Beavers in conference action. They’ve lost four of their five games, including lopsided losses to Pacific and Washington State. San Diego is still fighting to get into the top half of the WCC, but this is a program that made a significant financial commitment before the season and I have to think that some of their players get better individually and also playing as a unit the rest of the way.
Oregon State’s best attributes in conference play have been getting to the free throw line and making free throws. However, while they’re shooting 77.8% on free throws overall, they are shooting below 74% at the stripe on the road. They’re shooting 34.6% from 3 overall in league play, but they’re only shooting 33.3% on the road.
Defensively, regardless of venue, this is a poor team. The Beavers are 12th in the 12-team conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and foul too much, fail to force turnovers, and are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 36% from 3. San Diego ranks in the top half of the conference in 2P% and 3P% and also fourth in TO% both ways, so I really don’t see a lot of advantages for Oregon State in this one. They’re likely to lose the turnover battle, the shooting percentage matchup, and also have to go on the road.
Pick: San Diego -2.5
UAB Blazers at North Texas Mean Green (-1.5, 140.5)
8 p.m. ET
The deeper we get into the American Conference schedule, the more I feel like North Texas will get exposed. The Mean Green hired Daniyal Robinson from Cleveland State this past offseason and, while I think he’s a decent coach, he brought a lot of his Vikings with him. Those guys played in the Horizon League and the American Conference is a really big step up in class.
When you look at North Texas, they are 12th in conference play in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are second in adjusted defensive efficiency. A lot of that has to do with their conference-best 23.1% TO%. However, UAB has only turned the ball over on 11% of their possessions against conference foes. If you take away the ability to force turnovers, the Mean Green are doing okay in terms of defending shots, but not as well as their ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency would indicate.
This is a North Texas team that ranks 13th in 2P% and 11th in 3P% in conference games. When you think about that, it points to why forcing turnovers is so important. They struggle to score, so if the opponent can’t score, then it gives them a far better chance at being competitive. Unfortunately in this matchup, the Blazers take good care of the basketball. While UAB is not the best shooting team in the conference at all, we have seen North Texas struggle to defend shots in the halfcourt.
UAB doesn’t rely on the 3-point shot the way that some teams do and that should benefit them in this game, since North Texas is way better at defending beyond the arc than inside of it. While Cleveland State obviously lost a lot of talent with players following Robinson to Denton, UAB beat the Vikings 101-77 earlier this season and there had to be some holdovers and maybe a little bit of Robinson’s influence with that team.
Pick: UAB +1.5
