College Basketball Bets
An NCAA Tournament ticket will be punched today in the Ohio Valley, while we have semifinal and quarterfinal action in several other tourneys. Two more also get underway today, with the America East and Big Sky tipping off. Along with that, we have the conclusion of the regular season for a lot of the major-conference teams, as the big conference tournaments start on the 10th and 11th.
In all, we’ve got 92 games on the card for today and 31 of them are conference tourney matchups, so it is a card with something for everyone and a card that features basketball from Noon until Midnight. As usual, in the interest of lead time, I’ve cut the card down to games that start at 5 p.m. ET or later.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Cal Poly Mustangs (-9.5, 175.5)
7 p.m. ET
Expect a track meet in San Luis Obispo between Cal Bakersfield and Cal Poly. This will be the last game of the season for the Roadrunners, who are 2-17 in Big West play and are one of three teams that won’t qualify for the conference tournament. Cal Poly is already locked in as the No. 8 seed, so they can’t move up or down in this one. The Mustangs will play on Wednesday in the first round.
Poly won the first meeting 104-79 in Bakersfield back on Jan. 29 in a game that was played to 78 possessions. I’d assume this one is around there or higher and we’ve already seen this total get hammered upwards, which makes a ton of sense. In that first meeting, Poly was 24-of-33 at the rim, while Bakersfield was just 12-of-23. Poly only took one mid-range jumper, going 12-of-31 from 3. The Mustangs are going to have the better shot selection in this defense-optional game and that is a huge advantage to them.
In terms of conference numbers, even with a 19.3% TO% that was dead last in Big West play, Poly still ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Bakersfield was 10th with a 17.4% TO%. The Roadrunners were 11th in 2P% and 10th in 3P%, while the Mustangs were first in 2P% and seventh in 3P%, but they are at home in this one, where their 33.3% success rate in conference play overall has the chance to play up a little bit.
Given the context of how this game is likely to be played, and with the Mustangs coming off of blowout losses to UC San Diego and UC Irvine that they’d like to bounce back from heading into the conference tourney, I don’t think they should have a problem winning by margin.
Pick: Cal Poly -9.5
North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs. St. Thomas Tommies (-11.5, 151.5)
10:30 p.m. ET
The semifinals in the Summit League are tonight and the nightcap of the doubleheader features North Dakota vs. St. Thomas. The teams split the regular season, as St. Thomas won 91-80 in a game where they were 16-of-24 from 3 and North Dakota won 81-80 on the road in the revenge game.
The Fighting Hawks played last night and beat Denver by 16, holding the Pioneers to just 20 made shots from the floor. UND led by 13 at half and opened up an even bigger lead in the second half, so they were able to distribute playing time accordingly. I don’t think that the back-to-back will hurt them too much in that regard.
North Dakota shot 35.2% from 3 in conference play, which ranked sixth in this sharpshooting conference, but that’s still quite good. They also finished second in TO% offense and first in TO% on defense, so they picked up some extra possessions that way. They’re also a much better offensive rebounding team than the Tommies, outrebounding them on the offensive glass 19-12 in the two regular season meetings.
For St. Thomas to win the regular season game by margin – and not even as much as this line – they shot 66.7% from 3. I’ll take my chances with the Fighting Hawks having a game to get out the jitters and also get a feel for the Sanford Center.
Pick: North Dakota +11.5
Seattle Redhawks vs. Pacific Tigers (-1.5, 129.5)
11:30 p.m. ET
A late one at The Orleans in Las Vegas between Seattle and Pacific as part of the West Coast Conference Tournament. Seattle was victorious last night with a 58-56 win over San Diego to advance in their first season as a member of the WCC.
Pacific and Seattle played back on Jan. 24 and it was a 56-54 win for Pacific in a game played to just 62 possessions. We’ll probably see a similar snail’s pace in this one, especially with Seattle coming off of a 61-possession game last night. But, the final score of that regular season meeting doesn’t really tell the whole story.
Pacific led that game by 14 with under six minutes left and it was a wire-to-wire job for the Tigers, who never trailed in the game. Not only did they never trail, but they did so shooting just 3-of-12 from 3 and just 9-of-26 at the rim. It was a truly putrid shooting effort from the Tigers, but they were in control for long stretches of the game. Seattle was even 10-of-25 from 3. Pacific even shot just 50% at the free throw line.
I can’t imagine, even in a neutral setting, that we see that kind of horrific performance at the rim and from 3 for the Tigers, who were saved by going 11-of-14 from the mid-range. Pacific had 11 offensive rebounds to Seattle’s four and finished much higher than Seattle in every offensive category during the conference play portion of the regular season.
The Redhawks are a really good defensive team, but Pacific owns big advantages on the glass and from 3. At this short price, with how the first game went, I’ll take the Tigers.
Pick: Pacific -1.5
