College Basketball Picks
It is a big college football Saturday and also a big college basketball Saturday. These are going to be really tough days for oddsmakers because they have to put up lines on every college hoops game, even ones like LIU vs. La Salle, or Lamar vs. Abilene Christian, even though those games might get a few bets, if that. In other words, there should be some mispriced numbers today and on every Saturday while CFB is still rolling along.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Southeastern Louisiana at Little Rock (-10, 145.5)
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Southeastern Louisiana +10
I actually like a lot of what I saw from Southeastern Louisiana, which I realize is ridiculous to say in a 91-59 loss. But, let’s look deeper into that Auburn game. The Lions had the same number of turnovers (14) as the Tigers. They were just 9-of-25 at the rim and 8-of-33 from 3. Little Rock doesn’t have the length or athleticism that Auburn has. So, I’m encouraged by the shot selection for the Lions and how they were able to get to the rim. They just couldn’t finish upon getting there.
The Lions actually had 18 offensive rebounds, one more than Auburn, though, obviously, the Tigers did make more shots. I had the Over in that game and it narrowly got there, but it was predicated on an improved offense from SELA and I think we did get that.
First-year head coach Travis Ford is back on the job after a couple years as an analyst. He’s had some good seasons, but it has taken some time, as he was 12-21 in Year 1 at Saint Louis, 13-15 at UMass, and 7-19 at Eastern Kentucky. He did take his first Oklahoma State team to the NCAA Tournament, but that was an outlier.
I’ll take my chances with my priors and my read on SELA here. If they have another bad offensive performance against a much lesser team, then I will readjust at that point.
Southern Indiana at Evansville (-8.5, 142) Prediction
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Under 142
I love to go dumpster diving on Saturdays and really overall and that’s what we’ve got here, as Southern Indiana heads to Evansville. When I wrote up the Missouri Valley Conference in the College Basketball Betting Guide, I was pretty critical of the Aces, who lost a lot of last season’s scoring punch. It was a bad team, but the loss of two 6-foot-10 scorers is a lot to overcome.
Even with those guys, this was a terrible offense last season, checking in 280th in eFG% offense and 292nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The team hasn’t had a season in the top 200 in eFG% in the David Ragland era. Maybe it’s less about the ingredients and more about the chef, as he’s had a string of horrific offensive rebounding squads. In other words, I’m not expecting many second-chance opportunities tonight. Hell, the Aces only had 11 ORebs in a 10-point win over Indiana-Kokomo to open the season.
Southern Indiana is bad, too. They opened the season with .739 points per possession against Belmont in a 72-54 loss, as they played okay on defense in a game played to 73 possessions. Both teams had a 26% TO%, so they didn’t really value the ball much. Like Evansville, we’ve seen a string of poor offensive teams for the Screaming Eagles, as they were 363rd in the nation in eFG% last season and have been in the 300s in three straight seasons.
Both teams play to about an average tempo, but we’ve seen the Under get a lot of love here and that’s the wager that I agree with as well.
Portland State at Seattle (-10.5, 144) Prediction
10 p.m. ET
Pick: Portland State +10.5
Both teams experienced heavy losses this past summer, though Seattle was able to retain the services of Will Heimbrodt and Jun Seok Yeo. Portland State is basically a brand new team. So, I can understand the spread here in this one, but I do believe it is a bit inflated.
Heimbrodt and Yeo do indeed return, but the former had a 25.7% Usage Rate and only shot 44.6% on 2s and 28.6% on 3s. Yeo took more 3s than 2s and shot 29.1% on 3s and 59.1% on 2s. Maybe he’ll play inside a little bit more without Austin Maurer, but we’ll see if the Gonzaga transfer is able to be more efficient. He’s also a poor rebounder for his size.
What concerns me for Seattle is that they had some extreme defensive losses. When Chris Victor has good teams, it is because of what the Redhawks do on the defensive end. Per Torvik’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus numbers, Seattle did retain their second-best defender in Heimbrodt, but lost top defender Maleek Arrington, and three other well above average guys in Maurer, Jojo Murphy, and Brayden Maldonado. Brock Felder and Maurer were also the team’s top rebounders and so that’s another loss.
Jase Coburn has a lot of new faces like I mentioned, but I think he’s a good head coach. He had the program’s first 20-win season since the 2017-18 campaign and I feel as though he has more scoring upside on the roster this season. Portland State won with defense last year and they could face the same problem as Seattle here, but the 10.5 points is a big head start.
