College Basketball Bets
A total of 53 games are on the college basketball schedule for Thursday and we do not have a whole lot of top teams on the floor. In fact, the conferences in play on Feb. 19 are the CAA, American, Big West, Big Sky, WAC, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt, America East, NEC, Summit League, SWAC, Conference USA, Big South, Atlantic Sun, and SoCon. All one-bid leagues and the return of the NBA pushes those games to the major networks, so you’ll have to use ESPN+ a lot tonight.
But, hey, there are still good betting angles and good bets to be made in those games, so it’s an interesting card to dig into and one that you can try to specialize in by focusing on certain conferences over another. Keep in mind, you’ll be seeing a lot of these teams when conference tournaments roll around and at least one from each conference will be in the NCAA Tournament field.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
New Hampshire Wildcats at UMass Lowell River Hawks (-4.5, 150.5)
6 p.m. ET
An America East Conference matchup gets things started today between New Hampshire and UMass Lowell. It’s a revenge spot for the River Hawks, who lost 66-61 on the road to the Wildcats back on Jan. 29. That was a 66-61 game that could’ve swung either way, as it was a one-point game and nobody scored for a full two-minute stretch before New Hampshire extended their 62-61 lead into the 66-61 finishing margin.
There are a few things to point to from that game that make me think UMass Lowell secures the regular season split. First, the River Hawks are No. 1 in the conference in ORB%. But, Austin Green didn’t play in that first meeting and he’s the team’s leading scorer and also leading rebounder with 13.7 PPG and 7.3 RPG. UML still had the slight OReb edge 10-9, but they missed Green’s interior presence. New Hampshire was also missing leading scorer KiJan Robinson, but in this matchup, I think Green’s return is more important. Robinson is an inefficient shooter putting up 11.4 PPG based on volume more than anything else.
Second, the River Hawks were just 3-of-15 from 3. Not having Green’s interior presence likely led to more contested shots, but this is a team shooting 32.3% from 3 in conference games. Not great by any means, but better than 20%. New Hampshire is below the conference average in 3P% defense and the River Hawks are back at home, so I’d expect a better shooting effort.
Third, Xavier Spencer, a 39% 3-point shooter, picked up his third foul with 15:02 in the second half, his third foul in just four minutes of game time. Already missing Green, Spencer having to hold back a bit due to foul trouble was definitely an issue.
Add it all up and the River Hawks should get the win at home tonight with Green in his second game back from injury.
Pick: UMass Lowell -4.5
Longwood Lancers at Presbyterian Blue Hose (-2.5, 141.5)
7 p.m. ET
A move on the total is the big story so far in this game, but we are seeing influential bettors push this line out to 2.5 or 3 on the side of the home favorite. While it is important to keep in mind that it takes very little betting interest and any whiff of a sharp wager to move a line in a game like this, it doesn’t always mean that the line move is right. I respect them, especially in something like the Big South, but I do disagree with this one.
Longwood won the first game back on Jan. 10 by a 77-70 count at home. It should have been much worse. The Lancers led by 13 by the 15-minute mark and led by as many as 16 in the second half before emptying the bench and coasting to the seven-point win. For better or worse, Longwood is the best defensive team in this conference by adjusted defensive efficiency and third by eFG% defense. This is not a good defensive conference at all, but the Lancers are second in TO% as well, so they are definitely better than most.
Furthermore, Longwood is No. 1 in conference 3P% at 35.6% and No. 2 in conference 3P% defense at 32.1%. Presbyterian is actually shooting 34.8% from 3 in league play, but much lower than that for the season. Also, of the nine teams in the Big South, the Blue Hose are ninth in 3P% defense by a sizable margin at 37.5%.
So, we’ve established that Longwood should win the turnover battle and is also the better 3-point shooting team. They are also better on the glass, sitting second in ORB% and third in DRB% in conference clashes. Presbyterian is fifth in both areas. Really the only change is that Longwood is on the road. Based on Haslametrics “Away From Home” (AFH) metric, Longwood is more or less the same team regardless of venue.
I’ll roll with the Lancers here.
Pick: Longwood +2.5
Montana Grizzlies (-2.5, 149.5) at Idaho State Bengals
9 p.m. ET
All 10 teams do qualify for the Big Sky Conference Tournament, but it sure feels to me like the season is over for Idaho State. The Bengals started 3-2 in conference play and have dropped nine in a row since, including a hideous 30-point loss to rival Idaho last time out. Over the last six games, the Bengals have allowed 1.203, 1.421, 1.331, 1.066, 1.337, and 1.365 points per possession. Those are beyond atrocious defensive numbers.
Montana had 1.027 PPP against them in a 69-60 win back on Jan. 24 and that is the second-best defensive performance for Idaho State from a PPP standpoint in a conference game. And they still lost by 9 and only had .893 PPP themselves.
Speaking of rivalry games, Montana got pumped by rival Montana State at home on Saturday, so they’re looking for a bounce back effort before Saturday’s game against Weber State. The Grizzlies are second in adjusted defensive efficiency in a conference where defense is very much optional, but they are at least showing some prowess on that end of the floor. The Grizzlies also lead the conference in eFG% offense, shooting 59% on 2s and 36.9% on 3s. To be honest, this is a team that should have a better record than it does and a team I’ll be considering when the conference tourney rolls around.
Montana’s biggest issue is turning the ball over. There are a lot of bad defensive numbers in the Big Sky because of low TO% on defense, but the Grizzlies don’t prioritize their possessions like other teams do. As mentioned above, when they do get to shoot the ball, they are very good at doing so. Well, Idaho State only has a 13.6% TO% in conference games, so they don’t really play a lot of pressure defense and probably won’t force the Grizzlies into turning the ball over.
Lastly, Idaho State is 10th out of 10 teams in 3P% at 32.7%, so that’s a huge advantage for Montana. Given the comparable shot selection for these two teams over the course of the season, Montana’s efficiency numbers give them a nice edge and they should take better care of the ball than usual.
Pick: Montana -2.5
