College Basketball Bets
We’ve got 38 college basketball games to ring in the New Year and a wide variety of start times, ranging from 1 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET. We’ll have some really big college hoops cards going forward and a much stronger rhythm to the season thanks to conference play. Realignment has altered the days of the week that games are played, but some conferences have a lot of repetition in the schedule.
If you are just starting out for CBB for the season or just don’t have the time, try to find a handful of conferences that primarily play on different days. For example, Big Sky games are usually Thursday, Saturday, and Monday, whereas you’ll get a lot of MAAC games on Fridays and Sundays. Do some digging and see which conferences align well and specialize in those, especially with a small conference that the sportsbooks won’t be as familiar with because the betting handles are smaller.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Bellarmine Knights (-1.5, 151.5) at West Georgia Wolves
7 p.m. ET
Digging real deep for this one down in the A-Sun Conference between Bellarmine and West Georgia. As these two teams settle into conference play, we’ll have to see how their metrics progress. Per KenPom, Bellarmine has played the 54th-ranked strength of schedule by Net Rating and the 35th-ranked slate of opposing offenses. West Georgia has played the 136th-ranked schedule and the 103rd-ranked slate of opposing offenses.
Despite the really tough schedule, there are some super encouraging signs for the Knights. First, they have a 46.8% shot share on Close Twos per Torvik and have converted on 65.6% of those shot attempts. Also, the Knights have a 3P Rate approaching 41% and have shot 34.4% on those attempts. You know that shot selection is a big part of my handicapping and the 87.5% Rim & 3 Rate for Bellarmine is great to see.
West Georgia, meanwhile, has a shot share split of 34.4% on Close Twos, 34.7% on Farther Twos, and 30.9% on 3s. That is not an ideal offensive setup. It’s no surprise that even shooting 36.2% from 3 hasn’t been enough to help their offensive numbers, as they rank 309th in eFG%. Conversely, Bellarmine is 38th.
The Wolves don’t shoot enough 3s. They may get that chance today against Bellarmine, who tries to push teams away from the rim, but I also think that Bellarmine’s shot selection against is a byproduct of some of the teams that they played. West Georgia’s shot share against on Close Twos of 46.2% is really concerning here to me and I don’t think they’ll find the same success from deep with increased volume, so I see Bellarmine able to take better shots and convert at a higher rate.
Pick: Bellarmine -1.5 (-108)
Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Queens University Royals (-5.5, 164.5)
7 p.m. ET
So nice, let’s do it twice, as another A-Sun game has piqued my interest. Eastern Kentucky heads on the road to Charlotte to take on Queens, a Royals team that has really stepped up in class with their non-conference schedule. In fact, the last three games for the Royals have been Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Auburn. Per KP, Queens has played the 34th-ranked schedule overall, 18th with opposing offenses, and 98th with opposing defenses.
EKU has played a top-100 slate across the board in those three departments as well. But, this is an A.W. Hamilton-coached team that simply seems to have no identity right now. They used to run at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. That’s not the case anymore. They’re just bombing away from 3 with a 50.1% 3P Rate and they’re shooting below 31% on those. They have a 23% shot share on Close Twos. This is a squad that ranks 285th in eFG% offense and 300th in eFG% defense.
Queens, against the tough schedule, has at least made shots. They’re 57th in 2P% and 126th in 3P%. They, too, take a lot of 3s, but they’re in their home gym here. Queens is 5-8 overall and 5-0 at home, with four games against D-I opponents. In those games, they’ve scored 1.165, 1.485, 1.460, and 1.423 points per possession while shooting 44.1% from 3 and 64.4% on 2s.
It should be a really good matchup for the Royals.
Pick: Queens -5.5 (-102)
