College Basketball Bets
Just shy of 100 teams hit the hardwood today on the college basketball side of things, as we have no football on Thursday night for the first time since August 14, if you include Week 3 of the NFL preseason. The last two weeks, we’ve had College Football Playoff action, but we have no such thing this week. So, it’s college basketball, NBA, and NHL primarily for those looking for some action.
And the tough part about tonight is that major conferences are nowhere to be found, as we have games from the American, Sun Belt, WAC, West Coast, Big Sky, Horizon, CAA, Conference USA, Summit, Big West, A-Sun, Ohio Valley, America East, and SoCon. It’s a mid-major paradise, but also the type of night that can get casual college basketball observers and newbies to the 2025-26 season in trouble. But, it’s also a great night to embrace conference specialization, like I’ve mentioned before. Find a couple conferences and lock in on those moving forward. Be better than the books on those teams. It should help as the season progresses.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Maine Black Bears at Vermont Catamounts (-13.5, 130.5)
7 p.m. ET
We’ll see if it was just a cramp or not, but Vermont leading scorer and one of the highest-usage players in the nation, Gus Yalden, missed most of the second half in the Catamounts’ last game, a one-point win over Binghamton. Vermont head coach John Becker applauded the team’s win, but also told the media after the game that “something doesn’t feel right” about his team.
That game was a week ago, so maybe the Yalden fears are misguided, but he seems to be dealing with something. TJ Hurley, who averages nearly 13 PPG only had three points in the win over the Bearcats. Noah Barnett didn’t play. TJ Long, another double-digit scorer, only had three points, his fourth game in the last five with single digits.
Perhaps the Catamounts can put it all together, but this is a big number in a low-possession game. Overall, Maine is 316th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Vermont is 325th, but under 65 possessions. This should be an extremely slow game. Maine ranks 359th in TO% on offense, but Vermont is 331st in TO% on defense. Similarly, Vermont is 39th in TO% on offense and Maine is 80th in TO% on defense. So, the Black Bears don’t take care of the ball, but also force a lot of turnovers. Vermont is the opposite.
To me, that should slow this game down even more with limited transition opportunities for either team. The teams also rank 312th (Vermont) and 338th (Maine) in ORB%, so I’m not sure we’ll see a lot of second-chance opportunities either. In my estimation, that makes it even tougher for Vermont to cover this big number, especially with some of their recent offensive shortcomings.
Pick: Maine +13.5 (-115)
Jacksonville Dolphins at Central Arkansas Bears (-8.5, 135.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
Watch out for Central Arkansas as A-Sun play moves along. Second-year head coach John Shulman had a rough first year coming over from Alabama-Huntsville, where he took all five teams to the Division II NCAA Tournament and even took two of them to the Regional Finals. He left the Chargers with a 112-39 record, but went just 9-24 in his first season with the Bears.
This year’s team is way better. The Bears were 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency last season and 350th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This season, they are 209th and 157th, respectively. Last year’s crew only shot 29.6% from 3, while this year’s team is shooting 32.3% from deep. For a team taking a 3-pointer on over 50% of their shot attempts, any gains are a big positive.
This is technically a Quadrant 3 game on the road for Jacksonville. Their six wins this season are against two lower-division schools, 339th-ranked VMI, 248th-ranked Bethune-Cookman, 311th-ranked Florida A&M, and their last game against West Georgia, a blowout triumph against the Wolves. All four Division I wins are Quadrant 4 victories. They are 0-4 in Q3 games and have been beaten by 15, 23, 19, and 3.
UCA is one of the youngest teams in the nation, a rarity in the transfer portal era. Of the guys who have played at least 30% of the available minutes, two are juniors and two are sophomores. The rest are freshmen. So, this is a team that should keep improving as the season goes along.
Jacksonville is 353rd in the nation in 3P% defense at 38.2% and they are allowing a 37.9% 3P% in the games that they’ve lost to D-I foes. Central Arkansas is at home here and I think they can make it rain.
Pick: Central Arkansas -8.5 (-108)
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (-6.5, 146.5) at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
9:30 p.m. ET
Big West action here between UCSB and CSUB as the Gauchos look for the regular season sweep of the Roadrunners. It has not been a good season for Joe Pasternack’s team, as the Gauchos are just 9-7 and off to a 2-3 start in conference play. They are riding a three-game losing streak into this battle in Bakersfield. This is a team that has dropped nearly 100 spots in Torvik’s rankings over the last couple of months.
But, Pasternack is a good head coach and the return of Miro Little should help. Little returned after missing the last six Division I games for the Gauchos, in which they went 2-4, including the 109-84 win over the Roadrunners back on Dec. 6. Little had 20 points and five assists in the loss to UC Davis over just 24 minutes as he worked his way back into the lineup. He’s averaging better than 14 points and four assists per game. He’s also one of the team’s better defensive rebounders.
Using the On/Off metrics from our pals at CBB Analytics, Little is a difference maker. The Gauchos are +5.3 in Net Rating with him on the floor compared to not on the floor, including +4.5 in Offensive Rating. They also go from an 18.5% TO% with him off the floor to a 13.9% TO% with him on the floor, which is an enormous difference. The team also settles for a lot of long jumpers without him, as their 3P Rate is 5.3% higher when he’s not out there. That makes sense because of his passing prowess.
This should be a good matchup for UCSB just like the first game was. Their 3P Rate is 14% higher than Cal State Bakersfield’s and their 3P% is dramatically higher. Take away some of the turnovers with Little back and the Gauchos should score at will in this game. To make matters worse for the Roadrunners, they are 344th in eFG% offense, so if they are giving up a lot of points, it will be very hard to keep up.
Pick: UC Santa Barbara -6.5 (-118)
